UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#103
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#43
Pace65.3#287
Improvement+2.3#44

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#113
First Shot+4.2#76
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#285
Layup/Dunks-5.0#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#8
Freethrows-1.3#253
Improvement+0.7#124

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#109
First Shot-0.3#188
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#26
Layups/Dunks+7.0#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#346
Freethrows-1.6#273
Improvement+1.6#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 36.2% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 98.1% 98.9% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.0% 91.7%
Conference Champion 44.0% 46.0% 34.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round34.4% 36.0% 26.5%
Second Round7.2% 7.6% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.9% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 48 - 6
Quad 413 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 361   N.C. A&T W 94-78 98%     1 - 0 -3.6 +5.9 -10.0
  Nov 14, 2023 178   @ Vanderbilt L 70-74 58%     1 - 1 -1.6 +1.0 -2.8
  Nov 17, 2023 46   @ Arkansas W 78-72 20%     2 - 1 +19.4 +9.4 +9.9
  Nov 24, 2023 282   UMKC W 76-64 85%     3 - 1 +5.5 +8.0 -1.3
  Nov 25, 2023 156   Delaware W 88-77 66%     4 - 1 +11.3 +15.2 -3.8
  Nov 26, 2023 137   Illinois-Chicago W 58-57 60%     5 - 1 +2.8 -6.4 +9.3
  Dec 07, 2023 225   Eastern Kentucky W 78-68 83%    
  Dec 10, 2023 297   Elon W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 16, 2023 196   @ Marshall W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 19, 2023 205   @ High Point W 76-73 63%    
  Dec 29, 2023 25   @ Texas L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 03, 2024 122   Furman W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 244   East Tennessee St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 11, 2024 142   @ Samford W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 17, 2024 264   The Citadel W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 20, 2024 243   Wofford W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 24, 2024 149   @ Western Carolina W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 257   Mercer W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 31, 2024 342   @ VMI W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 04, 2024 122   @ Furman L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 08, 2024 142   Samford W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 208   Chattanooga W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 14, 2024 264   @ The Citadel W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 243   @ Wofford W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 21, 2024 149   Western Carolina W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 24, 2024 257   @ Mercer W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 28, 2024 342   VMI W 82-62 95%    
  Mar 02, 2024 244   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-65 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.1 9.9 12.0 10.1 5.4 1.6 44.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.1 8.0 5.8 2.0 0.2 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.4 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 6.6 9.9 12.7 14.8 16.0 14.0 10.3 5.4 1.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.4    5.3 0.1
16-2 97.6% 10.1    9.2 0.9
15-3 85.4% 12.0    9.1 2.6 0.2
14-4 61.7% 9.9    5.5 3.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 27.8% 4.1    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1
12-6 7.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.0% 44.0 32.3 9.6 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 74.7% 67.2% 7.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 22.8%
17-1 5.4% 67.2% 62.9% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.1 1.8 11.4%
16-2 10.3% 56.7% 55.5% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 4.5 2.7%
15-3 14.0% 45.2% 45.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.7 0.2 7.7 0.2%
14-4 16.0% 38.8% 38.7% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 3.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.1%
13-5 14.8% 31.4% 31.4% 12.8 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 10.1
12-6 12.7% 25.5% 25.5% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 9.5
11-7 9.9% 18.0% 18.0% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 8.1
10-8 6.6% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.7
9-9 3.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.6
8-10 2.4% 10.4% 10.4% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.2
6-12 0.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.1 0.6
5-13 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.6% 34.1% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 5.2 13.3 10.3 3.3 0.8 0.2 65.4 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.8 7.3 1.2 6.1 15.9 36.6 29.3 2.4 1.2