East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#244
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#260
Pace67.3#230
Improvement+1.4#95

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#261
First Shot-3.5#278
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#146
Layup/Dunks-3.1#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#79
Freethrows-1.1#242
Improvement+1.9#49

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#70
Layups/Dunks-3.3#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows-1.2#259
Improvement-0.6#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 21.0% 34.5% 14.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 46.9% 35.6%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 5.9% 9.4%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.1%
First Round2.1% 3.6% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 297   @ Elon L 76-79 51%     0 - 1 -7.3 -4.4 -2.7
  Nov 13, 2023 47   @ Butler L 47-81 6%     0 - 2 -20.7 -22.4 +2.8
  Nov 17, 2023 123   Davidson W 70-68 35%     1 - 2 +1.8 -4.4 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2023 193   @ Cleveland St. L 70-72 29%     1 - 3 -0.4 +0.4 -0.9
  Nov 24, 2023 344   Alabama A&M W 82-71 85%     2 - 3 -4.4 +5.0 -9.1
  Nov 29, 2023 114   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 16%     2 - 4 -4.3 -1.7 -3.5
  Dec 03, 2023 216   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 10, 2023 309   Tennessee Tech W 73-66 75%    
  Dec 20, 2023 282   UMKC W 68-63 69%    
  Dec 22, 2023 56   @ Utah St. L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 29, 2023 184   @ East Carolina L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 03, 2024 257   Mercer W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 06, 2024 103   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 10, 2024 149   Western Carolina L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 13, 2024 122   @ Furman L 71-81 18%    
  Jan 17, 2024 243   @ Wofford L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 20, 2024 208   Chattanooga W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 24, 2024 342   @ VMI W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 142   Samford L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 31, 2024 257   @ Mercer L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 264   The Citadel W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 07, 2024 243   Wofford W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 122   Furman L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 14, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 149   @ Western Carolina L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 21, 2024 342   VMI W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 24, 2024 142   @ Samford L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 28, 2024 264   @ The Citadel L 67-69 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 103   UNC Greensboro L 65-71 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 0.2 12.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.8 9.7 12.4 13.2 14.2 12.5 10.0 7.1 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 91.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 63.5% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 25.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 52.2% 52.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 20.6% 20.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.5% 7.6% 7.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 2.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-6 4.8% 9.7% 9.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.3
11-7 7.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.8
10-8 10.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.1 0.3 9.6
9-9 12.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.2
8-10 14.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 13.9
7-11 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.1
6-12 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.3
5-13 9.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 97.2 0.0%