Samford
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#142
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#117
Pace76.9#31
Improvement+4.7#5

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#103
First Shot+0.6#166
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#79
Layup/Dunks-1.5#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#32
Freethrows-1.0#234
Improvement+2.8#12

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot-1.5#221
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks-1.1#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#244
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement+1.9#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 15.9% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 93.5% 94.3% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 86.0% 74.3%
Conference Champion 18.7% 19.2% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 1.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 1.1%
First Round15.5% 15.8% 10.5%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 45-98 3%     0 - 1 -30.0 -20.0 -6.1
  Nov 10, 2023 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-75 25%     0 - 2 -1.7 -2.9 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2023 341   South Carolina St. W 89-72 93%     1 - 2 +2.0 -0.6 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2023 330   Alabama St. W 99-67 90%     2 - 2 +19.0 +14.0 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2023 259   Merrimack W 79-71 82%     3 - 2 -0.2 +6.8 -7.0
  Nov 25, 2023 361   N.C. A&T W 101-83 96%     4 - 2 -1.6 +4.5 -8.1
  Nov 30, 2023 174   Louisiana W 88-65 68%     5 - 2 +19.5 +7.3 +11.1
  Dec 11, 2023 344   Alabama A&M W 87-70 95%    
  Dec 16, 2023 148   Belmont W 86-82 63%    
  Dec 19, 2023 312   @ Valparaiso W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 21, 2023 233   @ Texas Southern W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 03, 2024 208   Chattanooga W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 06, 2024 264   @ The Citadel W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 11, 2024 103   UNC Greensboro L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 342   VMI W 89-72 94%    
  Jan 17, 2024 149   @ Western Carolina L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 20, 2024 257   Mercer W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 24, 2024 122   @ Furman L 82-86 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 244   @ East Tennessee St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 31, 2024 243   Wofford W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 03, 2024 208   @ Chattanooga W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 08, 2024 103   @ UNC Greensboro L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 342   @ VMI W 86-75 82%    
  Feb 14, 2024 149   Western Carolina W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 17, 2024 257   @ Mercer W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 21, 2024 122   Furman W 85-83 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 244   East Tennessee St. W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 28, 2024 243   @ Wofford W 82-80 59%    
  Mar 02, 2024 264   The Citadel W 80-70 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.6 5.8 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.3 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.6 7.2 4.7 1.2 0.2 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 6.2 6.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.0 5.3 1.6 0.1 15.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.6 1.0 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.5 0.3 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.5 6.4 9.3 12.3 14.0 14.7 13.0 10.9 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
16-2 93.9% 3.0    2.6 0.3
15-3 80.4% 5.1    3.7 1.2 0.1
14-4 52.6% 5.8    2.9 2.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.9% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.8 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 82.0% 73.7% 8.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.4%
17-1 1.4% 47.5% 47.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.2% 35.6% 35.6% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 2.0
15-3 6.3% 31.5% 31.5% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.3
14-4 10.9% 24.2% 24.2% 13.2 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.3
13-5 13.0% 20.8% 20.8% 13.6 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 10.3
12-6 14.7% 16.7% 16.7% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.0% 12.6% 12.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.3
10-8 12.3% 8.5% 8.5% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 11.2
9-9 9.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.8
8-10 6.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.1
7-11 4.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-13 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.9 5.1 2.3 0.8 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 91.2% 7.6 8.8 7.4 16.2 1.5 8.8 16.2 22.1 1.5 8.8