Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 Grand Canyon 48.6%   12   24 - 4 14 - 3 26 - 4 16 - 3 +8.2      +4.5 72 +3.7 70 69.3 152 +10.7 49 +8.1 2
124 Seattle 12.5%   17 - 11 11 - 6 18 - 12 12 - 7 +3.0      -0.7 198 +3.6 71 67.5 213 +1.7 138 +2.0 3
130 Tarleton St. 11.5%   18 - 7 13 - 3 20 - 8 15 - 4 +2.5      +2.1 118 +0.5 151 66.2 249 +7.1 87 +8.4 1
135 Texas Arlington 9.6%   14 - 13 10 - 7 15 - 14 11 - 8 +2.0      +0.1 177 +1.9 121 74.6 44 +1.1 148 +1.7 4
158 Utah Valley 6.0%   12 - 14 8 - 8 13 - 16 9 - 10 +0.4      -3.4 267 +3.8 65 69.2 155 -0.3 163 -1.3 7
162 Stephen F. Austin 5.4%   13 - 13 8 - 8 15 - 14 10 - 9 +0.1      -2.9 258 +3.0 95 72.5 69 -0.5 169 -0.4 5
186 California Baptist 3.2%   12 - 14 6 - 10 13 - 16 7 - 12 -1.5      -1.7 226 +0.2 164 62.0 340 -2.9 221 -3.8 9
203 Abilene Christian 2.5%   12 - 15 8 - 8 13 - 17 9 - 10 -2.4      -2.8 252 +0.4 155 71.1 102 -1.6 196 -0.5 6
237 Southern Utah 1.5%   7 - 19 4 - 12 8 - 21 5 - 14 -3.7      +0.4 169 -4.1 298 73.3 58 -6.6 284 -6.9 10
277 Utah Tech 0.6%   9 - 18 6 - 11 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.8      -6.1 323 +0.3 162 72.9 61 -4.6 252 -3.3 8
325 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1%   4 - 22 2 - 14 5 - 24 3 - 16 -9.8      -6.1 322 -3.8 287 77.9 17 -10.1 320 -10.3 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Grand Canyon 1.1 88.6 11.4
Seattle 3.1 3.3 88.1 8.5
Tarleton St. 1.6 43.2 56.8
Texas Arlington 3.7 38.3 56.3 5.0 0.4
Utah Valley 5.7 2.2 13.3 30.4 24.1 28.5 1.6 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 5.3 1.5 11.2 49.1 29.8 7.4 0.9 0.1
California Baptist 8.1 0.5 2.7 13.3 57.4 25.6 0.5
Abilene Christian 5.6 4.8 10.0 35.4 23.1 24.5 2.1 0.1
Southern Utah 9.8 3.2 10.8 84.6 1.4
Utah Tech 8.1 2.1 4.0 13.2 43.5 35.9 1.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 10.9 11.6 88.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Grand Canyon 16 - 4 4.1 32.4 63.5
Seattle 12 - 8 25.2 50.5 24.3
Tarleton St. 15 - 5 5.6 25.1 42.5 26.8
Texas Arlington 11 - 9 15.4 51.1 33.5
Utah Valley 9 - 11 16.9 40.2 33.6 9.2
Stephen F. Austin 10 - 10 5.1 31.1 54.8 9.0
California Baptist 7 - 13 8.2 51.5 33.8 6.5
Abilene Christian 9 - 11 14.8 37.9 35.2 12.1
Southern Utah 5 - 15 18.7 43.6 30.6 7.1
Utah Tech 7 - 13 20.3 43.5 30.4 5.8
UT Rio Grande Valley 3 - 17 29.4 45.2 22.4 3.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 88.6% 56.8 31.8
Seattle
Tarleton St. 43.2% 11.4 31.8
Texas Arlington
Utah Valley
Stephen F. Austin
California Baptist
Abilene Christian
Southern Utah
Utah Tech
UT Rio Grande Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 48.6% 47.2% 1.5% 12   0.0 1.4 33.2 13.9 0.1 51.4 2.8%
Seattle 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 6.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 87.5 0.0%
Tarleton St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.4 4.6 5.5 0.9 0.0 88.5 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.5 0.9 90.5 0.0%
Utah Valley 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.2 94.0 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.3 0.7 94.6 0.0%
California Baptist 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 2.4 96.8 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.1 97.5 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Grand Canyon 48.6% 1.5% 47.8% 15.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.6% 0.2% 9.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 6.0% 1.6% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.4% 0.2% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 3.2% 1.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.5% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 96.7 0.6
2nd Round 18.7% 0.2 81.3 18.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0