IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.2	#167
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.7	#182

Pace	70.5	#147
Improvement	-0.3	#207

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#178

First Shot	-4.1	#290
After Offensive Rebound	+3.9	#20

Layup/Dunks	+1.0	#144
2 Pt Jumpshots	-3.5	#331
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.4	#234
Freethrows	-0.1	#177

Improvement	-0.1	#187

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#167

First Shot	-1.8	#234
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.7	#61

Layups/Dunks	+2.8	#80
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.9	#297
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.1	#264
Freethrows	-0.6	#228

Improvement	-0.3	#212

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.3%	7.3%	5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	14.2	15.0

.500 or above	34.9%	45.0%	21.9%
.500 or above in Conference	47.6%	53.0%	40.7%
Conference Champion	4.4%	5.6%	2.9%
Last Place in Conference	5.3%	4.3%	6.6%

First Four	1.7%	1.5%	1.9%
First Round	5.7%	6.6%	4.4%
Second Round	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 8
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 3	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	159	Oral Roberts	W	75-71	60%	1 - 0			+1.2	-2.1	+3.3
Nov 16, 2023	42	@ New Mexico	L	80-82	10%	1 - 1			+12.1	+8.3	+4.0
Nov 19, 2023	2	@ Arizona	L	56-101	3%	1 - 2			-22.4	-12.4	-5.2
Nov 22, 2023	296	Alcorn St.	W	82-69	83%	2 - 2			+2.8	+7.7	-4.1
Nov 25, 2023	213	Texas St.	L	66-73	69%	2 - 3			-12.2	-6.9	-5.2
Nov 29, 2023	180	Abilene Christian	W	86-71	64%	3 - 3			+11.2	+8.2	+2.4
Dec 02, 2023	83	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-76	19%	3 - 4	0 - 1		+2.3	-0.9	+3.3
Dec 16, 2023	203	Air Force	W	65-63	56%
Dec 21, 2023	54	@ Texas Tech	L	65-77	13%
Dec 23, 2023	82	@ North Texas	L	56-65	19%
Jan 01, 2024	25	@ Texas	L	67-83	7%
Jan 04, 2024	179	@ Tarleton St.	L	68-71	42%
Jan 06, 2024	106	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	70-77	26%
Jan 11, 2024	181	Utah Valley	W	72-68	63%
Jan 13, 2024	136	Seattle	W	72-71	52%
Jan 18, 2024	318	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	83-72	85%
Jan 20, 2024	180	@ Abilene Christian	L	72-74	42%
Jan 27, 2024	83	Grand Canyon	L	72-75	38%
Feb 01, 2024	247	@ Southern Utah	W	79-78	53%
Feb 03, 2024	218	@ Utah Tech	L	61-62	47%
Feb 08, 2024	152	@ California Baptist	L	66-70	37%
Feb 10, 2024	106	Stephen F. Austin	L	73-74	45%
Feb 15, 2024	179	Tarleton St.	W	71-68	62%
Feb 17, 2024	318	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	80-75	69%
Feb 22, 2024	247	Southern Utah	W	82-75	72%
Feb 24, 2024	218	Utah Tech	W	64-59	67%
Feb 29, 2024	136	@ Seattle	L	69-74	32%
Mar 02, 2024	181	@ Utah Valley	L	69-71	42%
Mar 07, 2024	152	California Baptist	W	69-67	57%
Projected Record						13 - 16	9 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.1				4.4	1st
2nd												0.3	1.6	2.9	2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0					7.6	2nd
3rd											0.3	2.5	4.3	2.3	0.5	0.0							9.9	3rd
4th										0.3	2.7	5.2	3.1	0.3	0.0								11.6	4th
5th									0.4	2.4	6.2	3.1	0.4	0.0									12.4	5th
6th								0.2	2.3	6.0	3.4	0.5	0.0										12.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.9	5.3	3.9	0.6												11.8	7th
8th						0.1	1.7	4.4	3.6	0.8	0.0												10.6	8th
9th				0.1	0.2	1.6	3.7	3.2	0.8	0.0													9.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.5	1.5	2.5	1.8	0.4	0.0														6.8	10th
11th		0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0															2.8	11th

Total		0.1	0.4	1.4	2.5	4.8	7.4	10.1	12.4	13.4	13.3	11.5	9.6	6.2	3.8	1.9	0.9	0.2	0.1					Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-3	94.9%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-4	90.1%	0.8		0.7	0.2
15-5	61.2%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.1
14-6	33.5%	1.3		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	11.2%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1
12-8	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.4%	4.4		2.2	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.1%		51.4%	35.1%	16.2%	11.2										0.0		0.0	0.0					0.0		25.0%
17-3	0.2%		34.7%	34.7%		11.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2
16-4	0.9%		23.8%	23.8%		12.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.7
15-5	1.9%		21.7%	21.7%		12.7												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.5
14-6	3.8%		16.2%	16.2%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0		3.2
13-7	6.2%		11.8%	11.8%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1		5.5
12-8	9.6%		11.3%	11.3%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	8.5
11-9	11.5%		7.0%	7.0%		14.9														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	10.7
10-10	13.3%		5.5%	5.5%		15.5															0.1	0.2	0.4	12.6
9-11	13.4%		4.9%	4.9%		15.9																0.1	0.6	12.7
8-12	12.4%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																	0.4	11.9
7-13	10.1%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.3	9.8
6-14	7.4%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	7.3
5-15	4.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
4-16	2.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
3-17	1.4%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20

Total	100%		6.3%	6.3%	0.0%	14.5										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.2	1.2	2.2	93.7		0.0%