Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#167
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#182
Pace70.5#147
Improvement-0.3#207

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot-4.1#290
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#20
Layup/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#234
Freethrows-0.1#177
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot-1.8#234
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#61
Layups/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#264
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement-0.3#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.3% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 34.9% 45.0% 21.9%
.500 or above in Conference 47.6% 53.0% 40.7%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.6% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 4.3% 6.6%
First Four1.7% 1.5% 1.9%
First Round5.7% 6.6% 4.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 313 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 159   Oral Roberts W 75-71 60%     1 - 0 +1.2 -2.1 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2023 42   @ New Mexico L 80-82 10%     1 - 1 +12.1 +8.3 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2023 2   @ Arizona L 56-101 3%     1 - 2 -22.4 -12.4 -5.2
  Nov 22, 2023 296   Alcorn St. W 82-69 83%     2 - 2 +2.8 +7.7 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2023 213   Texas St. L 66-73 69%     2 - 3 -12.2 -6.9 -5.2
  Nov 29, 2023 180   Abilene Christian W 86-71 64%     3 - 3 +11.2 +8.2 +2.4
  Dec 02, 2023 83   @ Grand Canyon L 69-76 19%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.3 -0.9 +3.3
  Dec 16, 2023 203   Air Force W 65-63 56%    
  Dec 21, 2023 54   @ Texas Tech L 65-77 13%    
  Dec 23, 2023 82   @ North Texas L 56-65 19%    
  Jan 01, 2024 25   @ Texas L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 04, 2024 179   @ Tarleton St. L 68-71 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 106   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 11, 2024 181   Utah Valley W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 136   Seattle W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 18, 2024 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-72 85%    
  Jan 20, 2024 180   @ Abilene Christian L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 27, 2024 83   Grand Canyon L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 01, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 03, 2024 218   @ Utah Tech L 61-62 47%    
  Feb 08, 2024 152   @ California Baptist L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 10, 2024 106   Stephen F. Austin L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 15, 2024 179   Tarleton St. W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 17, 2024 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 22, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 24, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 64-59 67%    
  Feb 29, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 69-74 32%    
  Mar 02, 2024 181   @ Utah Valley L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 07, 2024 152   California Baptist W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 6.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 6.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 3.9 0.6 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 4.8 7.4 10.1 12.4 13.4 13.3 11.5 9.6 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 94.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 90.1% 0.8    0.7 0.2
15-5 61.2% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 33.5% 1.3    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 11.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 51.4% 35.1% 16.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
17-3 0.2% 34.7% 34.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.9% 23.8% 23.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.9% 21.7% 21.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-6 3.8% 16.2% 16.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.2
13-7 6.2% 11.8% 11.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.5
12-8 9.6% 11.3% 11.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.5
11-9 11.5% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.7
10-10 13.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 12.6
9-11 13.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.7
8-12 12.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 11.9
7-13 10.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 9.8
6-14 7.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 7.3
5-15 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-16 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.2 93.7 0.0%