Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#83
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#53
Pace69.4#179
Improvement-2.3#318

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot+4.7#61
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#228
Freethrows+5.9#6
Improvement-2.2#331

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#113
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#73
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement-0.1#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.4% 41.1% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 5.2% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 12.1
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.6% 93.7%
Conference Champion 47.7% 53.2% 44.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
First Round34.8% 40.2% 31.4%
Second Round9.8% 12.9% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 38 - 411 - 7
Quad 411 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 354   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-67 97%     1 - 0 +4.5 +1.6 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2023 241   Northern Arizona W 89-55 89%     2 - 0 +27.1 +12.3 +13.9
  Nov 17, 2023 69   San Francisco W 76-72 44%     3 - 0 +11.9 +6.5 +5.3
  Nov 19, 2023 73   South Carolina L 68-75 46%     3 - 1 +0.3 +3.6 -3.9
  Nov 25, 2023 223   North Dakota St. W 86-71 87%     4 - 1 +9.3 +10.6 -1.0
  Nov 29, 2023 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-69 87%     5 - 1 +4.3 +0.5 +3.4
  Dec 02, 2023 167   Texas Arlington W 76-69 81%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +3.8 +0.8 +2.9
  Dec 05, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 09, 2023 61   @ Liberty L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 16, 2023 171   Portland W 80-73 73%    
  Dec 20, 2023 141   Sam Houston St. W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 30, 2023 102   Louisiana Tech W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 04, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 75%    
  Jan 06, 2024 218   @ Utah Tech W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 11, 2024 180   Abilene Christian W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 13, 2024 179   Tarleton St. W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 18, 2024 181   Utah Valley W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 20, 2024 136   @ Seattle W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 25, 2024 106   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 167   @ Texas Arlington W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 01, 2024 136   Seattle W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 03, 2024 181   @ Utah Valley W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 15, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 68-56 84%    
  Feb 17, 2024 152   California Baptist W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 22, 2024 179   @ Tarleton St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 24, 2024 180   @ Abilene Christian W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 29, 2024 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-69 94%    
  Mar 02, 2024 106   Stephen F. Austin W 77-72 69%    
  Mar 08, 2024 152   @ California Baptist W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 6.7 10.4 12.4 9.6 5.0 1.4 47.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 6.4 6.9 4.1 1.5 0.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.3 13.1 14.9 14.7 13.8 9.6 5.0 1.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
18-2 100.0% 5.0    5.0 0.0
17-3 99.2% 9.6    9.0 0.6
16-4 89.2% 12.4    10.3 2.0 0.0
15-5 71.0% 10.4    6.9 3.3 0.3
14-6 44.7% 6.7    3.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 15.9% 2.1    0.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 36.1 9.5 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.4% 92.4% 71.5% 20.9% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 73.3%
18-2 5.0% 74.4% 61.6% 12.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 33.3%
17-3 9.6% 56.0% 50.9% 5.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.2 10.4%
16-4 13.8% 47.8% 46.3% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.2 2.9%
15-5 14.7% 37.7% 37.3% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.1 0.1 9.2 0.6%
14-6 14.9% 32.6% 32.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.4 2.8 1.4 0.3 10.0 0.1%
13-7 13.1% 25.1% 25.1% 12.6 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.3 9.8
12-8 10.3% 22.8% 22.8% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 7.9
11-9 7.2% 19.0% 19.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 5.9
10-10 4.7% 11.4% 11.4% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.2
9-11 2.7% 8.3% 8.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
7-13 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.4% 33.7% 1.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 8.5 14.3 6.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 64.6 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.2 4.7 4.7 16.4 34.4 19.5 19.5 0.8