California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#198
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#209
Pace62.2#336
Improvement-0.4#226

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#218
First Shot-4.5#302
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#38
Layup/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#288
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement-0.9#286

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#175
First Shot+0.8#146
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#260
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#91
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+0.5#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 49.5% 65.1% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 60.0% 32.6%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.6% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 3.3% 10.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round3.5% 5.1% 2.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 277   Jackson St. W 80-66 76%     1 - 0 +4.7 +8.8 -3.0
  Nov 17, 2023 167   Portland St. L 63-66 55%     1 - 1 -6.2 -8.5 +2.2
  Nov 18, 2023 278   St. Thomas W 66-62 76%     2 - 1 -5.3 -2.1 -2.6
  Nov 19, 2023 331   Cal Poly W 67-58 87%     3 - 1 -4.9 -1.8 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2023 211   @ Southern Utah L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 06, 2023 232   Utah Tech W 60-55 67%    
  Dec 12, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 16, 2023 227   @ UC Riverside L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 19, 2023 184   Western Kentucky W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 27, 2023 342   Chicago St. W 73-60 88%    
  Dec 30, 2023 235   @ New Mexico St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 04, 2024 171   @ Utah Valley L 64-68 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 132   @ Seattle L 63-70 26%    
  Jan 11, 2024 173   Tarleton St. W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 13, 2024 151   Abilene Christian W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 211   Southern Utah W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 25, 2024 326   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 97   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 03, 2024 132   Seattle L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 08, 2024 191   Texas Arlington W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 232   @ Utah Tech L 57-58 46%    
  Feb 15, 2024 171   Utah Valley W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 17, 2024 78   @ Grand Canyon L 62-74 15%    
  Feb 22, 2024 151   @ Abilene Christian L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 24, 2024 173   @ Tarleton St. L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 29, 2024 97   Stephen F. Austin L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 02, 2024 326   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-66 83%    
  Mar 07, 2024 191   @ Texas Arlington L 65-68 39%    
  Mar 08, 2024 78   Grand Canyon L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 5.3 1.6 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 3.8 1.4 0.1 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.2 5.9 8.4 10.6 11.2 12.4 11.4 9.9 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.5% 0.5    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 67.8% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
15-5 38.9% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1
14-6 13.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 48.1% 40.7% 7.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5%
18-2 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.6% 27.6% 27.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.3% 18.4% 18.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-6 3.8% 11.8% 11.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.4
13-7 5.8% 8.4% 8.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.4
12-8 8.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.7
11-9 9.9% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.5
10-10 11.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.0
9-11 12.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 12.1
8-12 11.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.0
7-13 10.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-14 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-15 5.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.8
4-16 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 96.3 0.0%