Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#180
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Pace71.6#118
Improvement-1.6#286

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#203
First Shot-2.2#242
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#110
Layup/Dunks-0.4#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#260
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement-1.5#295

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#163
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#253
Layups/Dunks-3.7#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#26
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement-0.1#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.6% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 40.7% 47.3% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 45.0% 33.1%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.2% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 4.6% 8.9%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round4.8% 5.2% 4.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 77 - 12
Quad 47 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 64-59 18%     1 - 0 +14.1 -2.2 +16.3
  Nov 10, 2023 67   @ North Carolina St. L 64-84 14%     1 - 1 -9.1 -0.7 -9.4
  Nov 14, 2023 248   Prairie View L 74-79 74%     1 - 2 -12.5 -2.5 -9.7
  Nov 17, 2023 146   San Jose St. W 77-71 42%     2 - 2 +7.1 +12.8 -5.2
  Nov 19, 2023 170   Fordham W 59-45 48%     3 - 2 +13.8 -6.8 +21.3
  Nov 20, 2023 111   Missouri St. L 69-87 32%     3 - 3 -14.1 -1.7 -11.9
  Nov 29, 2023 167   @ Texas Arlington L 71-86 36%     3 - 4 -12.2 -3.4 -8.1
  Dec 02, 2023 106   Stephen F. Austin L 74-79 OT 42%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -3.9 -12.4 +9.6
  Dec 06, 2023 241   Northern Arizona W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 17, 2023 175   UTEP W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 21, 2023 46   @ Arkansas L 68-82 9%    
  Dec 30, 2023 183   @ Western Kentucky L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 06, 2024 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 11, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 13, 2024 152   @ California Baptist L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 18, 2024 179   @ Tarleton St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 167   Texas Arlington W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 25, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 64-59 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 01, 2024 179   Tarleton St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 08, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 181   @ Utah Valley L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 15, 2024 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 106   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 22, 2024 152   California Baptist W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 83   Grand Canyon L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 29, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 218   @ Utah Tech L 61-62 44%    
  Mar 07, 2024 136   Seattle W 72-71 50%    
  Mar 09, 2024 181   Utah Valley W 72-69 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.8 3.5 0.5 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.7 4.3 0.5 13.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.8 8.9 11.3 13.4 13.9 12.8 10.7 8.1 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 86.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 60.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.1
14-6 34.9% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 10.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 42.6% 42.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 24.0% 24.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.4% 25.8% 25.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
14-6 2.8% 20.1% 20.1% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.3
13-7 5.3% 12.4% 12.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.6
12-8 8.1% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.4
11-9 10.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.9
10-10 12.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 12.0
9-11 13.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 13.4
8-12 13.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.0
7-13 11.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 11.1
6-14 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.8
5-15 5.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.8
4-16 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.8 94.7 0.0%