Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#181
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#145
Pace69.1#192
Improvement-0.4#214

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#252
First Shot-0.5#195
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#283
Layup/Dunks-2.1#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#337
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement+0.7#118

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#126
First Shot+2.3#99
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks+5.2#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement-1.1#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.7% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.7
.500 or above 33.2% 44.9% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 40.2% 45.9% 35.0%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.2% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 5.6% 9.4%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round4.8% 6.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 77 - 14
Quad 46 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 141   @ Sam Houston St. W 79-73 OT 30%     1 - 0 +10.5 -0.9 +10.5
  Nov 15, 2023 131   @ Charlotte L 45-62 28%     1 - 1 -11.7 -20.5 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2023 185   Southern Miss W 67-65 51%     2 - 1 +0.9 -6.1 +7.1
  Nov 20, 2023 121   Cornell L 61-74 36%     2 - 2 -10.1 -12.7 +2.3
  Nov 29, 2023 136   Seattle W 78-72 50%     3 - 2 +5.0 +12.0 -6.6
  Dec 02, 2023 218   @ Utah Tech L 53-65 44%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -11.4 -6.8 -4.8
  Dec 05, 2023 117   Weber St. L 62-63 48%    
  Dec 09, 2023 147   @ Oregon St. L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 16, 2023 38   @ Utah L 63-78 8%    
  Dec 20, 2023 61   Liberty L 64-70 28%    
  Dec 29, 2023 76   @ Boise St. L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 04, 2024 152   California Baptist W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 06, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 11, 2024 167   @ Texas Arlington L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 13, 2024 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 18, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 20, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 61-56 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 01, 2024 106   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 03, 2024 83   Grand Canyon L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 08, 2024 179   Tarleton St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 180   Abilene Christian W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 152   @ California Baptist L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 17, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 22, 2024 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 24, 2024 106   Stephen F. Austin L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 02, 2024 167   Texas Arlington W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 07, 2024 179   @ Tarleton St. L 65-68 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 180   @ Abilene Christian L 69-72 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 5.5 2.8 0.4 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.9 0.6 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.9 9.0 11.5 13.1 12.8 12.4 10.3 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 89.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-5 57.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 35.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 9.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 76.0% 52.0% 24.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-3 0.2% 41.0% 41.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 30.6% 28.7% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.6%
15-5 1.6% 16.8% 16.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 2.7% 20.3% 20.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.1
13-7 4.9% 11.9% 11.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.3
12-8 7.5% 10.8% 10.8% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.7
11-9 10.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.6
10-10 12.4% 5.4% 5.4% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 11.7
9-11 12.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.2
8-12 13.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.8
7-13 11.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.3
6-14 9.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.9
5-15 6.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.8
4-16 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 94.8 0.0%