Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#129
Pace74.5#53
Improvement-0.7#234

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#160
First Shot-0.4#191
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#119
Layup/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#97
Freethrows-1.1#239
Improvement-1.9#322

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#75
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#80
Layups/Dunks+0.2#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#57
Freethrows-3.4#327
Improvement+1.3#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 22.9% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 91.5% 95.3% 85.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 91.5% 85.4%
Conference Champion 28.9% 32.7% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round20.1% 22.8% 16.3%
Second Round4.0% 4.8% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 59 - 8
Quad 410 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 221   @ Middle Tennessee L 62-67 OT 64%     0 - 1 -4.4 -11.2 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2023 339   @ Northwestern St. W 96-70 88%     1 - 1 +17.2 +7.8 +6.8
  Nov 19, 2023 125   Loyola Marymount W 86-76 56%     2 - 1 +12.6 +12.2 +0.3
  Nov 20, 2023 72   Drake W 92-68 38%     3 - 1 +31.4 +21.9 +9.7
  Nov 21, 2023 56   Utah St. L 49-79 32%     3 - 2 -21.1 -20.4 -0.2
  Nov 29, 2023 179   Tarleton St. L 66-68 77%     3 - 3 -5.6 -5.7 +0.0
  Dec 02, 2023 180   @ Abilene Christian W 79-74 OT 58%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +7.2 -8.8 +14.9
  Dec 05, 2023 102   Louisiana Tech W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 09, 2023 163   @ Wyoming W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 19, 2023 254   New Mexico St. W 81-69 87%    
  Dec 29, 2023 303   New Orleans W 85-70 92%    
  Jan 04, 2024 318   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 06, 2024 167   Texas Arlington W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 11, 2024 218   @ Utah Tech W 63-60 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 247   @ Southern Utah W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 18, 2024 136   Seattle W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 25, 2024 83   Grand Canyon W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 152   California Baptist W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 01, 2024 181   Utah Valley W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 03, 2024 179   @ Tarleton St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 08, 2024 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 86-70 92%    
  Feb 10, 2024 167   @ Texas Arlington W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 17, 2024 180   Abilene Christian W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 22, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 181   @ Utah Valley W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 29, 2024 152   @ California Baptist W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon L 72-77 31%    
  Mar 07, 2024 247   Southern Utah W 85-73 84%    
  Mar 09, 2024 218   Utah Tech W 66-57 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 4.8 7.6 7.6 4.9 1.8 0.5 28.9 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 7.4 7.6 4.0 1.1 0.2 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 6.2 5.1 1.8 0.2 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.9 5.1 8.0 10.6 13.4 14.9 14.2 11.8 8.7 5.1 1.8 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
17-3 96.1% 4.9    4.5 0.5
16-4 87.0% 7.6    6.0 1.6 0.0
15-5 64.3% 7.6    4.9 2.4 0.3
14-6 33.5% 4.8    2.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.5% 1.6    0.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.8 7.2 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 84.8% 63.9% 20.9% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 58.0%
18-2 1.8% 62.3% 56.6% 5.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 13.1%
17-3 5.1% 43.5% 42.5% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 1.6%
16-4 8.7% 34.1% 34.1% 12.1 0.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 5.7
15-5 11.8% 30.5% 30.5% 12.5 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.2 8.2
14-6 14.2% 22.5% 22.5% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 11.0
13-7 14.9% 17.4% 17.4% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 12.3
12-8 13.4% 14.6% 14.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.4
11-9 10.6% 10.1% 10.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.5
10-10 8.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.3
9-11 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9
8-12 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.8
7-13 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.8
6-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.2% 20.0% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 6.9 6.1 2.9 1.2 0.4 79.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 91.5% 5.3 15.5 17.6 17.6 28.2 8.5 0.7 3.5