Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#211
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#243
Pace73.5#72
Improvement+1.8#43

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#119
First Shot+2.1#124
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-0.8#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#111
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#304
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#327
Layups/Dunks-4.3#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#26
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement+2.0#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 24.8% 32.6% 13.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.5% 49.5% 25.0%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 5.3% 15.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round2.8% 3.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 47 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 288   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 72-73 55%     0 - 1 -4.7 +5.1 -9.8
  Nov 14, 2023 56   @ Utah St. L 84-93 9%     0 - 2 +3.2 +14.2 -10.5
  Nov 21, 2023 104   @ Louisiana Tech L 53-67 18%     0 - 3 -6.6 -10.1 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2023 216   Texas St. W 74-67 51%     1 - 3 +4.4 +6.4 -1.6
  Nov 29, 2023 198   California Baptist W 73-71 59%    
  Dec 02, 2023 132   @ Seattle L 72-80 23%    
  Dec 05, 2023 40   @ Utah L 71-87 7%    
  Dec 09, 2023 269   Idaho St. W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 16, 2023 248   @ Northern Arizona L 77-78 47%    
  Dec 19, 2023 229   @ Montana St. L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 22, 2023 180   Middle Tennessee W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2024 78   Grand Canyon L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 06, 2024 171   @ Utah Valley L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 13, 2024 97   Stephen F. Austin L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 18, 2024 232   Utah Tech W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 198   @ California Baptist L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 25, 2024 173   @ Tarleton St. L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 151   @ Abilene Christian L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 01, 2024 191   Texas Arlington W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 03, 2024 326   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-78 82%    
  Feb 08, 2024 232   @ Utah Tech L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 10, 2024 78   @ Grand Canyon L 72-84 15%    
  Feb 15, 2024 132   Seattle L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 17, 2024 171   Utah Valley W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 22, 2024 191   @ Texas Arlington L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 29, 2024 151   Abilene Christian L 78-79 50%    
  Mar 02, 2024 173   Tarleton St. W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 07, 2024 97   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-84 19%    
  Mar 09, 2024 326   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-81 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.6 1.3 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.5 1.6 0.1 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.8 4.8 1.7 0.2 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.6 4.3 1.4 0.2 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 3.9 3.2 1.1 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.1 9.5 11.6 11.9 11.2 11.2 9.2 7.0 5.0 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 62.9% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 36.9% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 26.9% 19.2% 7.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5%
18-2 0.2% 26.6% 26.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 20.4% 20.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-5 2.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-6 3.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.0
13-7 5.0% 8.5% 8.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-8 7.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.6
11-9 9.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.8
10-10 11.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
9-11 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.9
8-12 11.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.7
7-13 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.5
6-14 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-15 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-16 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-17 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 96.8 0.0%