Preseason Rankings
BYU
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 9.1% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 17.1% 17.2% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 41.1% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.5% 38.6% 9.2%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 7.3
.500 or above 77.2% 77.4% 32.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 43.8% 13.3%
Conference Champion 3.2% 3.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 11.2% 32.2%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 2.9%
First Round38.7% 38.9% 9.1%
Second Round23.6% 23.7% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen10.4% 10.4% 1.7%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.6% 1.6%
Final Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 33 - 111 - 12
Quad 47 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 93-66 99.5%   
  Nov 10, 2023 31   San Diego St. W 70-69 52%    
  Nov 15, 2023 268   SE Louisiana W 86-68 96%    
  Nov 18, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 24, 2023 65   Arizona St. W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 01, 2023 111   Fresno St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 05, 2023 329   Evansville W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 62   @ Utah L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 13, 2023 307   Denver W 87-66 96%    
  Dec 16, 2023 206   Georgia St. W 80-65 90%    
  Dec 22, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 30, 2023 163   Wyoming W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 06, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 09, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 71-79 26%    
  Jan 13, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 16, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 23, 2024 4   Houston L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 27, 2024 15   Texas L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 63   @ West Virginia L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 06, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 10, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 13, 2024 81   Central Florida W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 20, 2024 14   Baylor L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 24, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 27, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 69-82 15%    
  Mar 02, 2024 24   TCU L 75-76 51%    
  Mar 06, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 09, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 74-70 61%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.9 0.8 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 1.5 0.1 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.0 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.1 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.8 10.3 11.0 11.4 10.6 9.5 7.8 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 85.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.9% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 31.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.3% 99.2% 10.5% 88.7% 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-6 6.2% 97.4% 7.9% 89.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.2%
11-7 7.8% 91.6% 5.9% 85.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 91.1%
10-8 9.5% 79.1% 4.7% 74.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 78.0%
9-9 10.6% 56.7% 3.4% 53.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 55.1%
8-10 11.4% 28.9% 3.3% 25.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.1 26.5%
7-11 11.0% 8.8% 2.2% 6.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 6.7%
6-12 10.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.6%
5-13 8.8% 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.1%
4-14 6.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-17 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
Total 100% 40.9% 4.0% 37.0% 7.0 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.7 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 59.1 38.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.1 11.9