NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#253
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#267
Pace66.9#232
Improvement+1.9#99

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#250
First Shot-3.3#273
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#137
Layup/Dunks-1.0#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#337
Freethrows+3.2#23
Improvement+2.4#54

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#228
First Shot-0.1#176
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#317
Layups/Dunks-1.4#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#200
Freethrows-0.4#219
Improvement-0.5#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.7% 34.3% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 80.6% 90.1% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 8.6% 10.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.4% 14.4% 19.3%
First Round24.6% 26.8% 16.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 413 - 613 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 17   @ Kansas L 56-99 3%     0 - 1 -25.2 -3.2 -24.5
  Nov 12, 2023 79   @ Georgia L 54-64 10%     0 - 2 -0.2 -11.1 +10.4
  Nov 18, 2023 194   @ Longwood L 66-73 30%     0 - 3 -6.3 +0.4 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2023 294   @ Campbell W 78-75 OT 50%     1 - 3 -1.5 -2.5 +0.9
  Nov 21, 2023 273   The Citadel L 61-67 54%     1 - 4 -11.6 -6.8 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2023 308   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-58 53%     2 - 4 +6.6 -2.0 +9.2
  Dec 02, 2023 286   South Carolina Upstate L 82-85 67%     2 - 5 -12.2 +2.7 -14.8
  Dec 05, 2023 64   @ Virginia L 47-77 8%     2 - 6 -18.7 -10.1 -12.3
  Dec 09, 2023 228   @ Radford L 74-82 35%     2 - 7 -8.6 -0.7 -8.0
  Dec 12, 2023 346   @ N.C. A&T W 67-62 71%     3 - 7 -5.3 -9.3 +4.1
  Dec 20, 2023 194   Longwood W 79-70 51%     4 - 7 +4.3 +2.8 +1.4
  Jan 06, 2024 285   Howard W 73-54 67%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +9.9 +2.0 +10.0
  Jan 08, 2024 248   Norfolk St. W 60-58 59%     6 - 7 2 - 0 -5.1 -12.2 +7.3
  Jan 20, 2024 306   @ South Carolina St. L 68-71 52%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -8.1 -3.0 -5.3
  Jan 27, 2024 350   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 65-57 74%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -3.2 -5.0 +2.2
  Jan 29, 2024 312   @ Delaware St. W 69-66 54%     8 - 8 4 - 1 -2.7 -5.4 +2.6
  Feb 03, 2024 359   Coppin St. W 77-46 90%     9 - 8 5 - 1 +12.1 +6.6 +8.4
  Feb 05, 2024 336   Morgan St. L 72-79 OT 82%     9 - 9 5 - 2 -21.4 -12.3 -8.7
  Feb 17, 2024 285   @ Howard L 82-90 46%     9 - 10 5 - 3 -11.7 +3.1 -14.6
  Feb 19, 2024 248   @ Norfolk St. L 74-80 39%     9 - 11 5 - 4 -7.6 -0.2 -7.3
  Feb 24, 2024 350   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-55 87%     10 - 11 6 - 4 +16.4 +12.2 +4.0
  Feb 26, 2024 312   Delaware St. W 93-81 73%     11 - 11 7 - 4 +0.9 +19.9 -18.8
  Mar 02, 2024 359   @ Coppin St. W 70-61 79%    
  Mar 04, 2024 336   @ Morgan St. W 76-72 65%    
  Mar 07, 2024 306   South Carolina St. W 75-69 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.4 8.1 8.6 1st
2nd 2.2 31.3 29.7 63.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.8 10.3 18.2 3rd
4th 1.4 7.0 0.8 9.1 4th
5th 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 2.4 17.0 42.8 37.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 21.5% 8.1    0.4 4.9 2.8
9-5 1.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 0.4 4.9 3.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 37.8% 39.6% 39.6% 15.7 0.2 4.9 9.9 22.8
9-5 42.8% 30.9% 30.9% 15.9 0.0 1.0 12.2 29.6
8-6 17.0% 24.0% 24.0% 16.0 0.1 4.0 12.9
7-7 2.4% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.4 2.0
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.2 6.0 26.5 67.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 37.8% 39.6% 15.7 0.4 13.0 26.2
Lose Out 2.4% 17.7% 16.0 17.7