Kansas
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+20.6#6
Pace75.4#41
Improvement-1.0#277

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#17
First Shot+12.0#1
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#340
Layup/Dunks+11.3#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#136
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement-1.7#325

Defense
Total Defense+10.6#5
First Shot+10.6#2
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks+7.3#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement+0.7#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.3% 11.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 37.7% 37.7% 7.1%
Top 2 Seed 63.5% 63.6% 14.3%
Top 4 Seed 86.5% 86.5% 50.0%
Top 6 Seed 94.4% 94.4% 71.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 98.8% 95.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 98.6% 95.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.5 4.8
.500 or above 99.5% 99.5% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 94.6% 90.5%
Conference Champion 36.2% 36.2% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 4.8%
First Round98.5% 98.5% 90.5%
Second Round91.1% 91.2% 59.5%
Sweet Sixteen66.0% 66.1% 47.6%
Elite Eight41.8% 41.8% 26.2%
Final Four25.2% 25.2% 11.9%
Championship Game14.5% 14.5% 0.0%
National Champion8.1% 8.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 6
Quad 26 - 116 - 7
Quad 33 - 019 - 7
Quad 44 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 273   NC Central W 99-56 99%     1 - 0 +34.0 +29.0 +7.4
  Nov 10, 2023 322   Manhattan W 99-61 99%     2 - 0 +25.7 +11.4 +10.3
  Nov 14, 2023 14   Kentucky W 89-84 64%     3 - 0 +20.5 +7.4 +12.3
  Nov 21, 2023 6   Marquette L 59-73 53%     3 - 1 +4.3 -6.0 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2023 8   Tennessee W 69-60 58%     4 - 1 +26.0 +6.6 +19.1
  Nov 28, 2023 336   Eastern Illinois W 88-54 99.9%   
  Dec 01, 2023 5   Connecticut W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 05, 2023 301   UMKC W 84-54 99.7%   
  Dec 09, 2023 93   Missouri W 83-66 94%    
  Dec 16, 2023 68   @ Indiana W 78-70 77%    
  Dec 22, 2023 87   Yale W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 30, 2023 89   Wichita St. W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 06, 2024 23   TCU W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 10, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 13, 2024 24   Oklahoma W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 20, 2024 102   @ West Virginia W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 22, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 27, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 30, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 03, 2024 3   Houston W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 05, 2024 44   @ Kansas St. W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 13   Baylor W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 12, 2024 51   @ Texas Tech W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 17, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 24, 2024 30   Texas W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 27, 2024 11   BYU W 79-73 71%    
  Mar 02, 2024 13   @ Baylor W 82-81 52%    
  Mar 05, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 83-72 84%    
  Mar 09, 2024 3   @ Houston L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.6 10.3 9.0 5.3 1.5 36.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.1 7.0 2.9 0.5 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.3 4.4 1.1 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.8 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.3 9.9 12.6 14.6 15.8 13.3 9.4 5.3 1.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 5.3    5.1 0.1
16-2 94.8% 9.0    7.7 1.2 0.0
15-3 77.8% 10.3    6.9 3.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 48.2% 7.6    3.1 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.0% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.2% 36.2 24.7 8.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.1 1.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.3% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.1 4.8 0.5 100.0%
16-2 9.4% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.2 7.8 1.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.3% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.3 9.3 3.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.8% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.6 8.1 6.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.6% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.0 4.3 6.9 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.6% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.6 1.7 4.4 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 100.0%
11-7 9.9% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.3 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.3% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.9% 99.6% 9.7% 89.8% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-10 2.7% 96.6% 6.8% 89.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.3%
7-11 1.4% 82.4% 6.3% 76.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 81.2%
6-12 0.8% 49.6% 7.4% 42.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 45.6%
5-13 0.3% 20.1% 7.5% 12.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.7%
4-14 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 19.2% 79.6% 2.5 37.7 25.9 14.7 8.3 5.3 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6