N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#346
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#323
Pace69.4#150
Improvement+1.2#134

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#336
First Shot-5.0#310
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#293
Layup/Dunks-4.6#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#264
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement-4.8#352

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#345
First Shot-5.8#346
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-6.6#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+6.0#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 20.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 90 - 13
Quad 47 - 107 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 49   @ Pittsburgh L 52-100 2%     0 - 1 -35.3 -17.8 -14.7
  Nov 10, 2023 146   @ UNC Greensboro L 78-94 7%     0 - 2 -12.0 +3.4 -14.8
  Nov 14, 2023 64   @ Virginia L 51-80 2%     0 - 3 -17.7 -5.8 -15.3
  Nov 22, 2023 222   Merrimack L 73-96 18%     0 - 4 -26.1 -4.3 -19.1
  Nov 24, 2023 324   Alabama St. L 73-88 37%     0 - 5 -24.7 -0.5 -24.1
  Nov 25, 2023 95   @ Samford L 83-101 3%     0 - 6 -9.3 +3.1 -10.3
  Dec 02, 2023 273   The Citadel L 68-85 32%     0 - 7 -25.3 -6.5 -19.4
  Dec 08, 2023 125   @ High Point L 62-75 5%     0 - 8 -7.4 -7.5 -1.0
  Dec 12, 2023 253   NC Central L 62-67 29%     0 - 9 -12.3 -12.9 +0.5
  Dec 16, 2023 281   Texas Southern W 85-79 25%     1 - 9 +0.0 +13.9 -13.8
  Dec 17, 2023 301   Jackson St. L 60-68 30%     1 - 10 -15.6 -14.1 -1.6
  Dec 21, 2023 308   @ Coastal Carolina W 85-82 24%     2 - 10 -2.4 +6.8 -9.3
  Dec 30, 2023 107   @ George Mason L 69-94 4%     2 - 11 -17.9 -1.7 -15.9
  Jan 04, 2024 294   Campbell W 76-62 38%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +4.1 +5.0 +0.5
  Jan 06, 2024 314   @ Elon L 59-77 24%     3 - 12 1 - 1 -23.7 -15.1 -9.7
  Jan 11, 2024 134   Drexel L 63-67 13%     3 - 13 1 - 2 -4.6 -4.7 -0.3
  Jan 15, 2024 333   @ Hampton W 81-80 34%     4 - 13 2 - 2 -7.7 +6.4 -14.0
  Jan 18, 2024 242   Northeastern W 72-65 27%     5 - 13 3 - 2 +0.3 -1.5 +2.1
  Jan 20, 2024 318   William & Mary W 76-69 47%     6 - 13 4 - 2 -5.2 -6.2 +0.8
  Jan 25, 2024 173   @ Delaware L 71-90 9%     6 - 14 4 - 3 -16.9 -1.5 -15.1
  Jan 27, 2024 134   @ Drexel L 47-62 6%     6 - 15 4 - 4 -10.2 -18.9 +7.3
  Feb 01, 2024 333   Hampton W 59-58 54%     7 - 15 5 - 4 -13.1 -10.2 -2.8
  Feb 03, 2024 314   Elon L 65-69 43%     7 - 16 5 - 5 -15.2 -8.5 -7.0
  Feb 08, 2024 105   @ College of Charleston L 58-80 4%     7 - 17 5 - 6 -14.7 -12.3 -2.9
  Feb 10, 2024 122   Hofstra L 49-81 11%     7 - 18 5 - 7 -31.7 -20.0 -14.1
  Feb 15, 2024 126   @ UNC Wilmington L 54-73 5%     7 - 19 5 - 8 -13.5 -11.8 -4.4
  Feb 17, 2024 173   Delaware L 54-62 18%     7 - 20 5 - 9 -11.3 -12.1 -0.4
  Feb 22, 2024 208   @ Stony Brook L 64-80 12%     7 - 21 5 - 10 -15.9 -8.2 -8.1
  Feb 24, 2024 213   @ Monmouth L 67-83 12%     7 - 22 5 - 11 -16.2 -6.3 -9.8
  Feb 29, 2024 154   Towson L 58-84 15%     7 - 23 5 - 12 -28.0 -15.6 -11.8
  Mar 02, 2024 294   @ Campbell L 67-76 20%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11.8 11.8 11th
12th 80.0 8.2 88.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 80.0 20.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.0
5-13 80.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 79.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0
Lose Out 80.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0