Howard
Mid-Eastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#224
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#210
Pace71.9#111
Improvement+0.8#124

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#156
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#156
Layup/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#290
First Shot-4.6#317
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#99
Layups/Dunks-9.6#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#91
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+0.9#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.1% 49.6% 39.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 76.0% 88.8% 69.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 94.0% 89.3%
Conference Champion 34.3% 39.1% 31.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four14.8% 12.0% 16.3%
First Round35.6% 43.6% 31.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 327   Hampton W 92-80 83%     1 - 0 -0.9 -0.1 -2.4
  Nov 09, 2023 104   @ Georgia Tech L 85-88 17%     1 - 1 +4.4 +10.1 -5.5
  Nov 12, 2023 68   @ James Madison L 86-107 11%     1 - 2 -10.1 +6.2 -13.9
  Nov 14, 2023 276   Boston University W 64-53 73%     2 - 2 +1.7 -10.4 +12.1
  Nov 18, 2023 63   @ Rutgers L 63-85 10%     2 - 3 -10.8 -0.6 -9.8
  Nov 20, 2023 197   @ Bryant L 61-67 34%     2 - 4 -4.6 -7.9 +3.2
  Nov 25, 2023 265   @ Mount St. Mary's W 87-83 2OT 49%     3 - 4 +1.4 +2.8 -2.0
  Nov 28, 2023 36   Cincinnati L 81-86 OT 15%     3 - 5 +3.6 +10.9 -7.2
  Dec 11, 2023 194   @ Penn L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 16, 2023 262   Jackson St. W 78-75 59%    
  Dec 17, 2023 233   Texas Southern W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 20, 2023 154   @ UC Santa Barbara L 74-80 29%    
  Dec 30, 2023 200   @ La Salle L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 03, 2024 91   Yale L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 06, 2024 283   @ NC Central W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 08, 2024 341   @ South Carolina St. W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 20, 2024 229   Norfolk St. W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 337   @ Morgan St. W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 29, 2024 356   @ Coppin St. W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 03, 2024 327   Hampton W 84-77 75%    
  Feb 05, 2024 328   @ Delaware St. W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 283   NC Central W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 19, 2024 341   South Carolina St. W 86-74 86%    
  Feb 24, 2024 337   Morgan St. W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 26, 2024 356   Coppin St. W 78-63 90%    
  Mar 02, 2024 345   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 04, 2024 328   Delaware St. W 79-69 81%    
  Mar 07, 2024 229   @ Norfolk St. L 71-74 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.0 7.7 12.2 9.2 3.0 34.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 10.5 10.7 3.9 0.2 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 8.0 5.6 1.2 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.0 0.2 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.6 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.4 5.3 9.9 14.6 18.3 19.7 16.1 9.5 3.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0
12-2 97.5% 9.2    8.0 1.3
11-3 75.6% 12.2    7.8 4.1 0.3
10-4 39.4% 7.7    2.8 3.7 1.2 0.0
9-5 10.7% 2.0    0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 21.7 10.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 3.0% 85.7% 85.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.4
12-2 9.5% 72.0% 72.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 1.7 2.7
11-3 16.1% 60.9% 60.9% 15.3 0.1 1.5 3.9 4.4 6.3
10-4 19.7% 49.4% 49.4% 15.6 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.1 9.9
9-5 18.3% 38.8% 38.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.8 11.2
8-6 14.6% 28.5% 28.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.8 10.4
7-7 9.9% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9 8.0
6-8 5.3% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.7 4.6
5-9 2.4% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.3 2.1
4-10 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-11 0.4% 0.4
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 43.1% 43.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.6 12.3 24.9 56.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 89.4% 11.9 25.5 51.1 12.8