Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#45
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#32
Pace57.2#360
Improvement-4.4#361

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#114
First Shot+1.8#132
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#268
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement-3.0#357

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#11
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#27
Layups/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#270
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement-1.4#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 2.5% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 6.9% 10.2% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 16.6% 23.3% 10.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 65.8% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.1% 63.0% 42.1%
Average Seed 7.8 7.4 8.3
.500 or above 95.1% 98.2% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 86.7% 78.5%
Conference Champion 8.4% 10.5% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four7.7% 7.5% 7.9%
First Round51.3% 62.0% 41.3%
Second Round28.5% 36.0% 21.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 14.1% 7.6%
Elite Eight4.3% 5.8% 2.9%
Final Four1.6% 2.2% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 6
Quad 25 - 38 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 173   Tarleton St. W 80-50 90%     1 - 0 +26.5 +12.7 +16.0
  Nov 10, 2023 25   Florida W 73-70 40%     2 - 0 +16.0 +8.6 +7.6
  Nov 14, 2023 360   N.C. A&T W 80-51 99%     3 - 0 +10.0 +5.0 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2023 237   Texas Southern W 62-33 94%     4 - 0 +22.3 +0.0 +27.9
  Nov 20, 2023 35   Wisconsin L 41-65 44%     4 - 1 -11.9 -14.3 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2023 102   West Virginia W 56-54 72%     5 - 1 +6.5 -5.4 +12.2
  Nov 29, 2023 19   Texas A&M L 63-64 48%    
  Dec 02, 2023 95   Syracuse W 69-60 79%    
  Dec 05, 2023 273   NC Central W 69-49 97%    
  Dec 16, 2023 223   Northeastern W 71-54 94%    
  Dec 19, 2023 34   @ Memphis L 62-67 34%    
  Dec 27, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 77-52 99%    
  Dec 30, 2023 156   @ Notre Dame W 62-55 74%    
  Jan 03, 2024 155   Louisville W 69-56 88%    
  Jan 06, 2024 58   @ North Carolina St. L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 13, 2024 76   @ Wake Forest W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 17, 2024 63   Virginia Tech W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 137   @ Georgia Tech W 66-60 70%    
  Jan 24, 2024 58   North Carolina St. W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 155   @ Louisville W 66-59 74%    
  Jan 31, 2024 156   Notre Dame W 65-52 87%    
  Feb 03, 2024 46   @ Clemson L 61-64 40%    
  Feb 05, 2024 29   Miami (FL) W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 10, 2024 66   @ Florida St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 13, 2024 39   Pittsburgh W 65-63 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 76   Wake Forest W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 19, 2024 63   @ Virginia Tech L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 12   North Carolina L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 28, 2024 107   @ Boston College W 63-60 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 7   @ Duke L 56-66 18%    
  Mar 09, 2024 137   Georgia Tech W 69-57 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.7 3.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.3 9.4 11.7 13.0 13.2 11.9 9.5 6.9 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.1% 0.6    0.6 0.1
18-2 89.2% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 63.0% 2.6    1.4 1.1 0.1
16-4 29.6% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 11.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.4 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.2% 99.9% 13.3% 86.5% 4.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 6.9% 98.3% 10.4% 87.9% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
15-5 9.5% 94.6% 9.3% 85.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 94.1%
14-6 11.9% 87.7% 8.1% 79.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.5 86.6%
13-7 13.2% 71.3% 6.4% 65.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.8 1.6 0.1 3.8 69.4%
12-8 13.0% 52.2% 6.2% 46.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.2 0.2 6.2 49.1%
11-9 11.7% 31.1% 4.6% 26.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 0.2 8.0 27.8%
10-10 9.4% 17.8% 4.3% 13.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.7 14.1%
9-11 7.3% 5.8% 3.0% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.9 2.9%
8-12 4.6% 3.4% 3.2% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.2%
7-13 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 55.3% 6.6% 48.6% 7.8 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.2 5.5 6.0 7.1 7.9 9.1 7.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 44.7 52.1%