Longwood
Big South
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#192
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#137
Pace65.8#275
Improvement-0.4#221

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#210
First Shot-2.5#248
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#110
Layup/Dunks-1.7#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#296
Freethrows+4.2#19
Improvement-1.6#322

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#179
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#280
Layups/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#223
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement+1.2#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.8% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 90.2% 93.5% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.4% 74.9% 65.2%
Conference Champion 17.1% 18.8% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.9% 5.0%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.3%
First Round14.0% 15.4% 9.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 415 - 418 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 109   @ St. Bonaventure L 69-73 21%     0 - 1 +3.0 +4.7 -2.0
  Nov 15, 2023 346   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-61 77%     1 - 1 +9.6 +3.0 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2023 273   NC Central W 73-66 76%     2 - 1 -2.0 +4.8 -6.1
  Nov 24, 2023 337   Delaware St. W 84-82 2OT 88%     3 - 1 -12.6 -9.3 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2023 309   Lamar W 83-72 81%     4 - 1 -0.1 +2.2 -2.6
  Nov 26, 2023 356   Bethune-Cookman W 69-48 92%     5 - 1 +3.5 -12.4 +15.7
  Dec 03, 2023 333   @ Morgan St. W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 09, 2023 337   @ Delaware St. W 72-65 74%    
  Dec 13, 2023 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 17, 2023 332   VMI W 79-67 87%    
  Dec 20, 2023 273   @ NC Central W 66-65 56%    
  Dec 30, 2023 70   @ Dayton L 59-71 13%    
  Jan 03, 2024 175   @ Winthrop L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 06, 2024 344   @ Charleston Southern W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 10, 2024 160   Radford W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 13, 2024 214   @ UNC Asheville L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 17, 2024 286   @ South Carolina Upstate W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 20, 2024 297   Presbyterian W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 24, 2024 177   Gardner-Webb W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 31, 2024 226   @ High Point L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 03, 2024 344   @ Charleston Southern W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 07, 2024 286   South Carolina Upstate W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 175   Winthrop W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 17, 2024 297   @ Presbyterian W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 21, 2024 214   UNC Asheville W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 160   @ Radford L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 28, 2024 177   @ Gardner-Webb L 63-67 36%    
  Mar 02, 2024 226   High Point W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.5 3.8 0.7 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.2 2.1 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.2 1.7 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.9 7.8 10.8 12.9 14.6 14.0 12.0 9.3 5.3 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 97.7% 2.8    2.5 0.3 0.0
13-3 85.9% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.1
12-4 56.0% 5.2    2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 22.8% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.3 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 61.8% 59.6% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6%
15-1 1.1% 56.7% 56.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.9% 44.5% 44.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6
13-3 5.3% 33.4% 33.4% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5
12-4 9.3% 26.4% 26.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 6.9
11-5 12.0% 20.2% 20.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 9.6
10-6 14.0% 15.6% 15.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 11.8
9-7 14.6% 11.0% 11.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 13.0
8-8 12.9% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 12.0
7-9 10.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.2
6-10 7.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.5
5-11 4.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.8
4-12 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-13 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.8 4.7 2.4 85.6 0.0%