Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 Arkansas St. 27.3%   13   13 - 5 5 - 2 22 - 8 13 - 5 +4.8      +2.4 113 +2.4 103 71.2 106 +6.2 87 +4.0 2
117 Troy 16.4%   9 - 7 4 - 3 17 - 11 12 - 6 +2.7      +0.8 155 +1.9 119 66.0 244 +0.9 155 +1.1 4
121 Appalachian St. 17.3%   9 - 7 5 - 2 18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.6      -1.8 224 +4.4 64 62.0 341 +1.2 149 +2.3 3
122 South Alabama 16.8%   12 - 5 6 - 1 20 - 9 13 - 5 +2.4      -0.3 187 +2.6 98 61.8 344 +1.9 135 +6.5 1
149 James Madison 9.0%   8 - 9 3 - 4 16 - 13 11 - 7 +1.0      +0.5 165 +0.5 150 67.4 217 +0.8 157 -1.3 7
167 Texas St. 6.6%   9 - 8 4 - 3 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      +1.9 128 -2.1 239 65.7 250 0.0 171 -0.4 5
181 Marshall 4.8%   9 - 9 4 - 3 15 - 14 10 - 8 -0.9      -1.1 207 +0.2 167 71.4 103 -2.3 212 -0.9 6
253 Southern Miss 0.6%   6 - 11 3 - 4 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.4      -3.6 271 -1.8 233 72.9 73 -5.2 249 -3.6 10
272 Georgia Southern 0.3%   9 - 9 3 - 4 14 - 16 7 - 11 -6.2      -3.4 261 -2.8 260 74.9 42 -2.4 213 -4.8 12
281 Georgia St. 0.3%   6 - 12 3 - 4 11 - 19 7 - 11 -6.9      -3.5 264 -3.4 274 71.6 94 -7.2 282 -4.4 11
287 Old Dominion 0.3%   6 - 11 4 - 3 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7.2      -4.2 286 -3.0 263 66.5 235 -7.1 278 -1.8 8
293 Coastal Carolina 0.2%   6 - 11 1 - 6 10 - 19 4 - 14 -7.5      -2.7 244 -4.8 312 60.8 349 -9.2 308 -17.0 13
306 Louisiana 0.2%   5 - 13 4 - 3 8 - 22 7 - 11 -8.1      -4.3 290 -3.7 285 68.2 194 -8.2 299 -3.3 9
346 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 16 0 - 7 4 - 25 2 - 16 -12.0      -7.5 344 -4.5 308 67.8 205 -17.9 358 -21.7 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.3 42.3 22.9 16.0 9.0 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 3.8 11.7 15.6 19.0 20.0 15.1 9.8 5.4 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Appalachian St. 2.5 32.8 27.2 18.3 10.5 5.9 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 2.2 43.9 24.3 14.5 8.4 4.8 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 4.9 2.7 8.8 14.1 19.1 19.6 15.0 10.7 5.1 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Texas St. 5.4 3.7 6.2 9.5 13.1 17.2 18.5 16.5 8.5 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Marshall 5.5 3.6 6.4 9.4 11.5 17.0 19.7 14.9 8.6 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Southern Miss 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.9 5.1 10.1 17.5 18.5 16.4 13.5 10.7 3.4 0.2
Georgia Southern 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.9 10.2 16.8 17.2 16.0 13.8 10.4 4.1 0.1
Georgia St. 9.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.6 7.6 12.7 16.2 17.3 17.7 14.9 5.3 0.2
Old Dominion 8.6 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 5.0 7.7 12.3 18.0 17.7 15.1 10.7 7.1 2.4 0.0
Coastal Carolina 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.9 6.6 10.7 17.5 53.3 4.6
Louisiana 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.7 11.5 15.6 18.2 19.8 17.4 4.6 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 11.5 86.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 7.8 16.2 24.1 24.6 17.1 6.2
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 5.4 11.9 20.1 25.9 21.0 11.0 2.5
Appalachian St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.2 9.8 17.6 25.1 24.1 14.4 3.4
South Alabama 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 7.5 16.2 21.7 24.5 17.2 7.7 1.5
James Madison 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.7 11.4 18.6 23.3 22.1 13.3 3.9
Texas St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.4 8.8 16.8 21.7 21.6 16.1 7.9 2.4 0.3
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.5 16.5 22.1 20.2 15.3 8.1 2.5 0.4
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.4 2.5 9.6 17.1 22.1 22.5 15.1 7.2 2.8 0.6 0.1
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 0.5 2.8 8.9 18.0 22.2 21.4 15.0 7.4 2.9 0.8 0.2
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.8 5.0 13.0 21.0 23.4 17.9 11.4 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
Old Dominion 8 - 10 1.2 6.1 14.5 21.1 22.4 17.1 10.6 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
Coastal Carolina 4 - 14 2.4 9.2 17.8 23.5 20.8 14.6 7.6 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Louisiana 7 - 11 5.1 15.0 24.0 23.6 17.1 9.8 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 16 20.1 32.6 26.2 13.8 5.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 42.3% 23.5 12.8 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
Troy 11.7% 3.5 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1
Appalachian St. 32.8% 15.3 11.6 4.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 43.9% 24.3 13.7 4.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
James Madison 2.7% 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 3.7% 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marshall 3.6% 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St.
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 27.3% 27.3% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 1.4 13.7 10.3 1.8 0.0 72.7 0.0%
Troy 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 6.9 5.7 1.1 0.0 83.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.2 2.4 7.0 6.1 1.5 0.1 82.7 0.0%
South Alabama 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 7.2 5.7 0.9 0.0 83.2 0.0%
James Madison 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 91.0 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.4 0.1 93.4 0.0%
Marshall 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.4 95.2 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 27.3% 0.0% 27.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 16.4% 0.0% 16.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 17.3% 0.0% 17.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 16.8% 0.0% 16.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0