Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 Troy 41.2%   14   13 - 7 8 - 2 +2.6      +2.1 115 +0.5 150 66.6 241 +3.1 115 +3.9 1
158 Arkansas St. 14.8%   11 - 9 5 - 5 0.0      +1.1 135 -1.1 208 78.1 15 +0.6 153 -2.6 6
166 Marshall 10.4%   12 - 8 5 - 4 -0.5      +0.3 151 -0.8 195 72.8 78 -0.3 163 -3.4 8
190 South Alabama 11.4%   13 - 6 6 - 3 -2.0      -3.2 263 +1.2 126 63.4 318 +1.2 145 -0.7 2
194 James Madison 3.6%   10 - 11 4 - 6 -2.2      +0.9 142 -3.1 273 64.6 293 -2.3 207 -3.9 9
197 Appalachian St. 8.2%   12 - 9 7 - 4 -2.3      -2.8 248 +0.5 148 60.1 362 -1.6 194 -2.1 4
225 Old Dominion 2.5%   6 - 15 4 - 6 -3.6      -2.7 241 -0.9 201 71.0 124 -5.6 251 -4.7 11
234 Coastal Carolina 2.7%   12 - 10 6 - 5 -4.2      -4.1 281 -0.1 168 68.5 193 -1.4 191 -3.0 7
246 Georgia Southern 2.6%   11 - 9 5 - 4 -4.7      -0.3 172 -4.4 301 74.9 41 -2.9 216 -2.3 5
266 Southern Miss 0.7%   9 - 12 5 - 6 -5.8      -4.7 300 -1.1 207 70.8 131 -5.2 245 -7.3 12
270 Texas St. 0.5%   10 - 11 5 - 6 -6.2      -5.0 306 -1.2 211 66.9 234 -5.1 242 -4.7 10
275 Georgia St. 1.4%   7 - 13 6 - 4 -6.5      -5.2 310 -1.3 218 71.0 123 -5.4 248 -1.4 3
310 Louisiana 0.1%   6 - 16 4 - 6 -8.8      -6.3 328 -2.5 256 60.3 361 -10.2 324 -8.3 13
361 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 18 0 - 9 -15.9      -8.4 352 -7.5 354 75.3 37 -24.8 364 -22.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 158 Arkansas St. 71 225 Old Dominion 75   
Wed, Jan 28 166 Marshall 68 270 Texas St. 72   
Thu, Jan 29 194 James Madison 73 120 Troy 64   
Thu, Jan 29 197 Appalachian St. 70 266 Southern Miss 63   
Thu, Jan 29 234 Coastal Carolina 48 190 South Alabama 53   
Thu, Jan 29 275 Georgia St. 72 310 Louisiana 82   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 246 Georgia Southern 87 361 Louisiana Monroe 78 78%   
Sat, Jan 31 158 Arkansas St. 85 166 Marshall 81 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 197 Appalachian St. 63 120 Troy 71 77%   
Sat, Jan 31 225 Old Dominion 71 270 Texas St. 72 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 194 James Madison 74 266 Southern Miss 73 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 275 Georgia St. 64 190 South Alabama 72 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 246 Georgia Southern 73 310 Louisiana 72 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 234 Coastal Carolina 79 361 Louisiana Monroe 70 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.1 93.0 5.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 3.5 4.6 34.0 23.7 14.4 9.3 5.8 3.9 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1
Marshall 4.9 2.8 20.6 16.1 12.6 11.4 8.3 9.2 6.4 4.5 4.3 2.0 1.3 0.4
South Alabama 3.5 10.5 31.8 18.8 12.8 9.3 5.8 4.6 2.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
James Madison 7.0 0.2 4.3 8.2 10.6 11.9 10.4 12.6 9.3 10.8 8.6 6.4 5.0 1.8
Appalachian St. 4.5 4.0 18.9 18.1 16.0 13.2 9.5 8.0 5.4 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.3
Old Dominion 7.9 0.1 1.9 4.8 7.2 9.0 9.5 13.1 10.9 10.5 11.7 9.5 8.1 3.7 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6.0 0.8 7.7 11.6 12.5 13.1 12.0 12.9 9.5 8.3 5.7 3.8 1.7 0.5
Georgia Southern 6.6 0.7 7.7 10.6 10.4 10.9 10.1 11.5 9.7 8.8 8.1 6.4 3.8 1.4
Southern Miss 9.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 2.5 3.2 4.1 6.6 8.0 11.5 13.8 17.4 21.6 9.7
Texas St. 8.7 0.0 0.8 2.6 3.9 6.3 7.0 11.0 11.3 14.7 15.0 13.4 10.0 3.9
Georgia St. 7.0 0.9 4.9 7.3 9.1 11.0 10.3 11.9 11.0 10.7 10.1 7.5 4.3 1.1
Louisiana 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 5.3 7.8 12.3 21.9 45.3
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 0.0 0.1 99.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.1 0.1 1.4 6.5 17.4 29.5 30.3 14.8
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 8.1 18.7 30.3 27.9 12.4
Marshall 10 - 8 18 - 12 0.1 0.9 3.3 9.2 17.5 23.5 21.9 15.6 6.8 1.2
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 0.0 0.7 3.3 9.0 18.8 24.9 22.9 14.5 5.0 0.9
James Madison 9 - 9 16 - 14 0.0 0.5 3.4 9.7 19.9 26.0 23.4 13.0 4.0
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 1.0 6.1 16.6 27.1 26.7 15.6 6.1 0.8
Old Dominion 9 - 9 11 - 19 0.1 1.0 5.5 15.7 23.5 26.7 18.2 7.9 1.4
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 16 - 14 0.8 5.7 14.9 26.3 26.3 18.0 6.7 1.3
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.2 2.8 9.4 18.0 23.8 22.9 14.2 6.6 1.9 0.2
Southern Miss 8 - 10 12 - 17 5.0 19.0 27.2 25.9 14.7 6.7 1.2 0.2
Texas St. 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.7 8.1 21.8 29.3 23.6 12.0 4.0 0.5
Georgia St. 9 - 9 11 - 18 2.7 10.8 22.1 25.8 21.5 11.6 4.3 0.9 0.2
Louisiana 6 - 12 9 - 22 6.8 20.6 31.3 23.4 12.4 4.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 40.0 37.1 17.2 4.7 0.9 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 93.0% 80.1 10.3 2.0 0.5 0.2
Arkansas St. 4.6% 0.7 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
Marshall 2.8% 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 10.5% 3.8 5.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
James Madison 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Appalachian St. 4.0% 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.8% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.7% 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Southern Miss 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 41.2% 41.2% 0.0% 14   0.3 9.1 21.5 9.5 0.7 58.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.7 7.1 2.4 0.1 85.2 0.0%
Marshall 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.3 3.0 4.9 2.1 0.2 89.6 0.0%
South Alabama 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 5.6 4.4 0.2 88.7 0.0%
James Madison 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.2 96.4 0.0%
Appalachian St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.3 3.8 0.4 91.8 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 97.5 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 97.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.5 97.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Texas St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 98.6 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 41.2% 0.0% 41.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 14.8% 0.0% 14.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 3.6% 0.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.5% 1.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.7% 0.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%