Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Troy 19.4%   14   4 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 +0.7      -0.4 177 +1.1 132 69.4 187 -0.1 175 0.0 1
150 South Alabama 17.5%   7 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.3 157 +0.1 165 62.6 340 +9.6 67 0.0 1
158 Arkansas St. 16.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 0.0      -0.2 172 +0.2 163 79.0 16 +5.5 99 0.0 1
166 Marshall 12.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -0.9      -0.7 184 -0.2 171 75.2 47 +2.7 138 0.0 1
168 James Madison 12.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      +2.3 114 -3.3 282 65.1 298 -0.3 182 0.0 1
218 Southern Miss 5.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.5      -0.1 167 -3.4 288 67.6 232 -2.7 208 0.0 1
220 Old Dominion 5.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -3.7      -0.9 188 -2.8 266 68.3 219 -6.3 265 0.0 1
225 Georgia Southern 4.3%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.9      -1.7 212 -2.3 244 75.7 41 -3.2 221 0.0 1
231 Texas St. 3.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      -3.8 275 -0.3 178 65.5 287 -5.6 249 0.0 1
261 Coastal Carolina 2.2%   4 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5.6      -5.6 324 0.0 169 73.3 93 -3.9 231 0.0 1
284 Appalachian St. 1.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.6      -4.2 281 -2.5 251 59.6 363 -6.2 262 0.0 1
318 Louisiana 0.3%   1 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 22 6 - 12 -8.9      -7.1 346 -1.8 231 62.6 339 -14.1 345 0.0 1
334 Georgia St. 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -10.5      -7.7 352 -2.7 261 71.8 129 -15.2 348 0.0 1
359 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 4 - 24 3 - 15 -14.3      -7.9 355 -6.4 349 72.6 106 -20.3 361 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Nov 30 266 Alabama A&M 60 261 Coastal Carolina 67   
Sun, Nov 30 220 Old Dominion 75 117 William & Mary 88   
Sun, Nov 30 284 Appalachian St. 55 210 UNC Asheville 67   
Sun, Nov 30 150 South Alabama 82 268 Texas San Antonio 58   
Mon, Dec 1 147 Troy 89 286 West Georgia 93   
Tue, Dec 2 114 New Mexico St. 75 150 South Alabama 77   
Tue, Dec 2 158 Arkansas St. 83 188 Texas Arlington 63   
Tue, Dec 2 334 Georgia St. 67 189 Mercer 78   
Wed, Dec 3 166 Marshall 69 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Wed, Dec 3 217 Rice 77 231 Texas St. 72   
Wed, Dec 3 225 Georgia Southern 77 186 Louisiana Tech 69   
Wed, Dec 3 261 Coastal Carolina 78 278 South Carolina Upstate 85   
Wed, Dec 3 290 Radford 75 218 Southern Miss 82   
Wed, Dec 3 193 Lamar 65 318 Louisiana 55   
Wed, Dec 3 168 James Madison 67 337 NC Central 62   
Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley 52 359 Louisiana Monroe 66   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 5 130 East Tennessee St. 71 150 South Alabama 67 67%   
Sat, Dec 6 166 Marshall 79 196 Ohio 81 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 168 James Madison 72 230 Norfolk St. 66 72%   
Sat, Dec 6 220 Old Dominion 69 104 Richmond 80 85%   
Sat, Dec 6 261 Coastal Carolina 71 107 Winthrop 84 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 35 Miami (FL) 85 218 Southern Miss 65 95%   
Sat, Dec 6 158 Arkansas St. 77 306 Arkansas Little Rock 72 69%   
Sat, Dec 6 334 Georgia St. 72 163 Kennesaw St. 85 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 318 Louisiana 60 109 UNC Wilmington 70 83%   
Sat, Dec 6 225 Georgia Southern 84 361 Gardner-Webb 77 76%   
Sun, Dec 7 144 Stephen F. Austin 81 359 Louisiana Monroe 62 95%   
Mon, Dec 8 282 Grambling St. 68 218 Southern Miss 74 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 3.6 27.3 17.4 13.8 10.7 8.6 6.7 5.0 3.9 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 3.8 24.2 17.5 13.8 11.3 9.0 7.2 5.5 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Arkansas St. 4.1 22.0 16.1 13.2 11.2 9.2 7.9 6.2 5.0 3.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
Marshall 4.7 15.6 14.0 13.0 11.1 10.0 8.9 7.4 6.4 4.9 3.7 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2
James Madison 4.9 14.2 13.8 11.9 11.2 10.1 9.2 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.1 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.1
Southern Miss 6.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 8.5 7.4 6.1 4.5 2.5 0.9
Old Dominion 6.4 6.3 7.8 8.8 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.5 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.3 2.3 0.6
Georgia Southern 6.6 5.9 7.2 8.2 8.8 9.6 10.0 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.7 6.6 4.9 2.7 0.9
Texas St. 7.3 4.1 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.7 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.3 6.0 3.2 1.1
Coastal Carolina 7.7 2.9 4.5 5.7 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 9.4 7.7 5.1 2.0
Appalachian St. 8.6 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.1 7.2 8.3 9.7 10.7 12.0 12.3 10.4 7.5 2.9
Louisiana 10.3 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 7.4 9.2 12.3 15.0 17.4 14.5 8.2
Georgia St. 11.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.4 6.1 9.0 12.8 17.6 23.9 16.7
Louisiana Monroe 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.8 6.9 12.8 24.2 47.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.9 10.1 13.0 15.3 15.2 13.1 9.6 5.4 2.3 0.6
South Alabama 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.9 7.5 10.8 13.6 15.3 15.3 12.5 8.8 4.7 1.9 0.4
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.5 8.6 11.8 13.5 15.0 13.9 11.6 7.6 4.3 1.7 0.4
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.5 7.5 10.6 12.8 14.5 14.0 12.3 9.1 5.7 2.9 0.9 0.2
James Madison 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.4 7.9 11.0 13.4 14.5 13.8 11.8 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.8 0.1
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 6.8 9.4 11.9 13.2 13.6 12.6 9.9 7.3 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.9 9.5 12.0 13.9 14.1 12.8 10.4 7.2 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.3 7.2 9.5 12.6 13.6 13.8 11.9 9.7 6.6 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.7 8.7 11.9 14.0 14.1 13.3 10.8 7.5 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.9 10.1 12.6 13.6 13.5 12.1 9.3 6.7 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 6.4 9.8 12.4 14.3 14.3 12.6 9.7 7.1 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 1.4 4.0 7.9 11.9 15.0 15.7 14.6 11.7 7.8 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 5 - 13 1.2 4.3 8.9 13.0 15.5 15.7 13.6 10.6 7.2 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 5.6 13.5 18.7 19.5 16.7 11.5 7.2 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 27.3% 17.1 7.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 24.2% 14.8 6.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 22.0% 13.7 5.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 15.6% 8.7 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 14.2% 7.7 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 6.9% 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 6.3% 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5.9% 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 4.1% 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 2.9% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.9 7.1 2.5 0.2 80.6 0.0%
South Alabama 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.5 6.2 1.6 0.1 82.5 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 6.6 2.8 0.2 84.0 0.0%
Marshall 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.3 3.3 0.4 87.3 0.0%
James Madison 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.9 3.9 0.6 88.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.4 0.8 94.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 1.7 95.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.9 95.7 0.0%
Texas St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 96.4 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 97.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 98.7 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 19.4% 0.0% 19.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 17.5% 0.0% 17.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.0% 0.0% 16.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 12.7% 0.0% 12.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 12.0% 0.1% 12.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.6% 0.2% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.0% 0.8% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.3% 0.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0