Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#246
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#224
Pace73.5#53
Improvement+1.5#118

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#237
First Shot-4.8#311
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#43
Layup/Dunks+0.0#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows-3.5#351
Improvement+3.5#35

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#242
First Shot+0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#344
Layups/Dunks+2.0#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#213
Freethrows-2.2#323
Improvement-2.1#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 34.8% 56.0% 21.7%
.500 or above in Conference 19.1% 36.9% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 413 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   Northern Illinois W 80-65 83%     1 - 0 +0.2 -3.0 +2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 113   @ UNC Wilmington L 84-92 16%     1 - 1 -2.4 +4.5 -6.1
  Nov 15, 2024 293   NC Central W 80-75 60%     2 - 1 -2.6 -5.0 +2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 185   @ Winthrop W 89-87 28%     3 - 1 +3.0 -2.5 +5.2
  Nov 17, 2024 223   William & Mary L 87-102 44%     3 - 2 -18.4 -0.7 -15.7
  Nov 23, 2024 343   West Georgia W 64-54 82%     4 - 2 -4.5 -17.2 +12.4
  Nov 30, 2024 70   @ Drake L 47-61 9%     4 - 3 -3.7 -16.8 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 37   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-89 4%     4 - 4 -20.1 -9.3 -11.7
  Dec 07, 2024 260   North Florida W 93-91 OT 62%     5 - 4 -6.0 -3.9 -2.5
  Dec 13, 2024 118   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-77 17%     5 - 5 -8.7 -2.4 -7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 250   Gardner-Webb W 86-81 60%     6 - 5 -2.5 +2.3 -5.1
  Dec 21, 2024 211   @ Texas St. L 61-83 32%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -22.1 -13.7 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2025 338   Louisiana Monroe W 90-82 80%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -5.9 +13.3 -19.1
  Jan 04, 2025 148   South Alabama L 47-76 37%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -30.6 -23.5 -7.8
  Jan 08, 2025 261   @ Georgia St. L 78-82 OT 43%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -7.1 -8.9 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 177   @ Marshall L 69-81 27%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -10.4 +0.4 -11.4
  Jan 16, 2025 320   @ Coastal Carolina W 88-87 OT 59%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -6.2 +5.0 -11.2
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Old Dominion W 67-63 46%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +0.2 +1.9 -1.1
  Jan 23, 2025 320   Coastal Carolina W 85-58 76%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +14.9 +4.9 +9.7
  Jan 25, 2025 177   Marshall L 67-71 44%     10 - 10 4 - 5 -7.3 -5.3 -2.1
  Jan 30, 2025 111   @ Troy L 74-81 16%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -1.3 +9.6 -11.3
  Feb 01, 2025 256   @ Southern Miss L 68-72 43%     10 - 12 4 - 7 -7.0 -7.7 +1.0
  Feb 05, 2025 304   Louisiana W 83-82 71%     11 - 12 5 - 7 -9.7 +16.9 -26.5
  Feb 08, 2025 322   @ Western Michigan W 83-57 60%     12 - 12 +18.6 +5.4 +12.9
  Feb 13, 2025 137   James Madison L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 274   Old Dominion W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 136   @ Appalachian St. L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ James Madison L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 25, 2025 136   Appalachian St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 28, 2025 261   Georgia St. W 81-78 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.9 1.8 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 7.6 1.4 11.7 7th
8th 2.0 11.7 5.5 0.1 19.2 8th
9th 0.4 9.4 10.8 0.7 21.3 9th
10th 3.6 12.7 3.3 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 1.4 11.0 6.1 0.2 18.8 11th
12th 2.6 2.6 0.3 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.0 17.6 30.6 28.7 14.7 4.0 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 4.0
9-9 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6
8-10 28.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 28.6
7-11 30.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 30.4
6-12 17.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.6
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%