Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#130
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#147
Pace71.1#123
Improvement-5.3#363

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#186
First Shot-2.3#241
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#78
Layup/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#270
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement-1.0#258

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#107
First Shot+5.9#27
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#356
Layups/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#3
Freethrows-3.0#334
Improvement-4.3#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 19.9% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 12.7 13.5
.500 or above 88.3% 97.5% 87.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 94.7% 87.7%
Conference Champion 20.0% 29.6% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.6% 19.9% 14.1%
Second Round1.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 131   Akron W 80-75 OT 62%     1 - 0 +3.5 -8.6 +11.3
  Nov 08, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 79-88 4%     1 - 1 +12.5 +0.1 +13.9
  Nov 12, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 79%     2 - 1 +10.1 +9.8 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 197   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 73%     3 - 1 +5.3 -6.9 +12.9
  Nov 29, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 86-81 61%     4 - 1 +3.7 +5.2 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 168   Rice L 67-75 59%     4 - 2 -8.7 -3.6 -5.2
  Dec 01, 2024 156   Hofstra L 66-68 55%     4 - 3 -1.7 -1.5 -0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 66-64 88%     5 - 3 -9.4 -13.4 +3.8
  Dec 08, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 70-84 9%    
  Dec 12, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 80-75 68%    
  Dec 15, 2024 124   @ UAB L 75-79 37%    
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Coastal Carolina W 72-61 84%    
  Jan 02, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 78-71 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 114   @ James Madison L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 09, 2025 206   @ South Alabama W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 125   @ Troy L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 262   Louisiana W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 230   Georgia St. W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 163   Appalachian St. W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 138   Texas St. W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 250   @ Southern Miss W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 05, 2025 195   @ Marshall W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 250   Southern Miss W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 125   Troy W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 206   South Alabama W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 332   Louisiana Monroe W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 26, 2025 262   @ Louisiana W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 28, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-66 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 5.9 3.8 1.5 0.3 20.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.5 5.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.3 4.2 1.1 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.3 1.5 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.9 0.2 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.1 14.1 11.6 7.8 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.5% 1.5    1.5 0.1
16-2 93.4% 3.8    3.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 76.4% 5.9    4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.6% 5.5    2.3 2.5 0.7 0.1
13-5 18.6% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.0% 20.0 11.8 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 54.1% 54.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.5% 40.2% 40.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-2 4.0% 30.9% 30.9% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.8
15-3 7.8% 28.6% 28.6% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.6
14-4 11.6% 23.8% 23.8% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 8.8
13-5 14.1% 20.6% 20.6% 13.5 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.2
12-6 15.1% 14.4% 14.4% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 12.9
11-7 13.8% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.5
10-8 11.5% 6.4% 6.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 10.7
9-9 8.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.4
8-10 5.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
7-11 3.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.3 4.6 1.8 0.2 85.3 0.0%