Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #330
Pace 67.1 #227
Improvement +1.6 #118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 D+ D C D+ B-
Defense #284 C- D D C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.08 #277 -0.4 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.58 #357 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 43% #139 0.96 #263 -0.3 #187
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #295 -3.7 #295
Freethrows 0.28 #264 70% #265 0.20 #268
Second Chance 25.6% #314 0.92 #316 0.23 #335
Turnovers 16.6% #160
Total Offense -5.7 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.21 #253 -1.3 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #64 0.77 #205 -1.6 #305
Three Pointers 37% #299 1.08 #276 +1.0 #139
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #241 -1.9 #242
Freethrows 0.29 #155 73% #254 0.22 #156
Second Chance 32.3% #255 1.14 #322 0.37 #312
Turnovers 14.3% #328
Total Defense -3.6 #284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #80 -0.9% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.6% #321 4.6% #268
Possession Length 17.9 #243 16.9 #128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #341 0.20 #263
Improvement -1.4 #264 +3.0 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 38.1% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.0% 7.0% 29.2%
First Four3.0% 3.9% 2.2%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 410 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 10% -6  0 - 1 -4 +8 C B B+ -12 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 30 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0 - 2 -19 -7 D- B F -13 C+ F D
 Thu, Nov 13 178 Cornell L 78 - 97 31% -7  0 - 3 -23 -9 F D B -13 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 55 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -9 -2 B D+ F -8 D D+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 333 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 45% -4  0 - 5 -12 -2 D D F -10 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 296 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 56% -1  0 - 6 -24 -14 F F+ F+ -10 C+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 305 Ball St. W 55 - 37 58% +4  1 - 6 +7 -15 F D+ A+ +24 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 207 Monmouth L 74 - 88 36% -13  1 - 7 -20 +0 C- D- B -20 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 300 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 57% +2  2 - 7 -3 +10 A+ B- F -12 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 181 @Penn L 72 - 74 15% -6  2 - 8 -0 -2 B- F D +2 B- B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 155 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  2 - 9 -11 +5 C C+ C -19 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 113 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 8% -7  2 - 10 -8 +12 A- F A -19 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 219 Colgate L 77 - 85 38% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -3 D C+ C- -10 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 316 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 39% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +9 +8 C- A+ B+ +2 B- A- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 289 Boston University L 67 - 83 53% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -26 -10 F+ F A+ -17 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 174 @Navy L 50 - 76 14% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -24 -17 F+ F D- -8 F C F+
 Wed, Jan 14 313 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 38% -1  3 - 14 1 - 4 -13 -1 D+ D- C -12 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 65% +12  4 - 14 2 - 4 +6 +0 D- C+ A+ +7 A B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 289 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 31% +2  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -7 F+ F B- -1 C- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 35% -7  4 - 16 2 - 6 -10 -11 F F+ B +0 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 313 Bucknell W 81 - 79 61% -4  5 - 16 3 - 6 -10 +9 C C+ A+ -19 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 253 @American W 67 - 65 25% -1  6 - 16 4 - 6 -0 +1 C+ F B- -1 B- F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 174 Navy L 50 - 65 30% -4  6 - 17 4 - 7 -19 -17 C- F D- -4 B- B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 339 @Army L 72 - 73 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 316 Loyola Maryland W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 304 Lehigh W 71 - 69 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 326 @Holy Cross L 69 - 71 43%
 Sun, Feb 22 253 American L 70 - 71 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 219 @Colgate L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 Army W 75 - 70 69%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -6 D+ D C -4 C- D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 3.5 0.3 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 8.5 1.7 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.5 10.3 4.3 0.1 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 5.1 9.9 0.4 15.4 6th
7th 1.0 11.8 2.8 15.6 7th
8th 0.2 6.3 7.9 0.2 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 8.0 1.0 11.4 9th
10th 1.1 4.3 2.1 0.0 7.5 10th
Total 1.1 6.9 17.4 26.4 25.6 16.0 5.8 0.7 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 0.7
10-8 5.8% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.5 5.3
9-9 16.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.8 15.2
8-10 25.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.1 24.5
7-11 26.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 26.1
6-12 17.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.2
5-13 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
4-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 16.0 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.6%