Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#213
Pace68.9#163
Improvement-1.2#247

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#303
First Shot-4.0#292
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#250
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement-0.4#200

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#197
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#325
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#146
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-0.9#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 82.1% 92.3% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 87.1% 60.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 3.0% 2.3%
First Round4.4% 5.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 23 - 5
Quad 414 - 917 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 52-86 2%     0 - 1 -14.7 -11.3 -3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 239   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 36%     1 - 1 +1.9 +3.6 -2.4
  Nov 16, 2024 333   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 76%     2 - 1 -5.1 -11.2 +6.3
  Nov 20, 2024 78   @ Georgetown L 51-79 8%     2 - 2 -18.3 -14.0 -4.2
  Nov 23, 2024 313   Delaware St. W 76-66 70%     3 - 2 -1.2 +4.1 -4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 296   @ Howard W 79-75 48%     4 - 2 -1.3 -3.5 +2.0
  Dec 06, 2024 226   @ Marist L 50-53 32%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -4.0 -15.3 +11.0
  Dec 08, 2024 326   Fairfield W 101-94 75%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -5.7 +18.8 -24.6
  Dec 14, 2024 319   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 73%     5 - 4 -20.1 -11.2 -8.7
  Dec 18, 2024 318   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 55%     6 - 4 +1.0 +5.9 -5.1
  Dec 21, 2024 154   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 OT 20%     7 - 4 +7.1 -6.6 +13.3
  Dec 28, 2024 72   @ George Mason L 56-64 8%     7 - 5 +2.2 -5.4 +7.4
  Jan 05, 2025 305   Niagara W 68-62 69%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -4.8 -12.5 +7.5
  Jan 10, 2025 272   @ Manhattan W 75-66 42%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +5.2 +2.0 +3.8
  Jan 12, 2025 271   Sacred Heart W 73-71 61%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -6.7 -3.7 -2.9
  Jan 16, 2025 307   @ Rider L 60-66 51%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -12.0 -19.0 +7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 194   Quinnipiac L 57-91 44%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -38.3 -14.4 -24.8
  Jan 23, 2025 245   @ Siena L 68-82 37%     10 - 8 4 - 4 -16.3 +1.2 -18.7
  Jan 25, 2025 272   Manhattan L 64-74 61%     10 - 9 4 - 5 -18.7 -11.0 -8.4
  Jan 31, 2025 195   @ Merrimack W 66-58 27%     11 - 9 5 - 5 +8.7 +7.8 +2.1
  Feb 02, 2025 283   @ St. Peter's W 79-64 45%     12 - 9 6 - 5 +10.6 +18.0 -5.5
  Feb 06, 2025 252   Iona L 67-70 OT 57%     12 - 10 6 - 6 -10.6 -10.6 +0.2
  Feb 14, 2025 305   @ Niagara W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 16, 2025 355   @ Canisius W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 21, 2025 283   St. Peter's W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 23, 2025 307   Rider W 71-66 71%    
  Feb 28, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 02, 2025 245   Siena W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 194   @ Quinnipiac L 70-76 25%    
  Mar 08, 2025 226   Marist W 64-63 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 3.2 0.4 6.5 3rd
4th 0.2 4.5 8.6 2.0 0.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.8 11.9 5.0 0.2 21.0 5th
6th 1.3 10.7 7.4 0.5 20.0 6th
7th 0.3 6.2 7.8 0.8 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 6.9 1.3 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.3 4.0 1.6 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.1 8.1 16.1 23.9 24.9 16.9 6.5 1.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.3% 17.6% 17.6% 14.7 0.1 0.2 1.0
13-7 6.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 5.7
12-8 16.9% 9.8% 9.8% 15.8 0.3 1.3 15.3
11-9 24.9% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.2 1.5 23.3
10-10 23.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 23.1
9-11 16.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.7
8-12 8.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.0
7-13 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.0 4.7 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.7 27.3 72.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%