Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Connecticut 100.0%   1   20 - 1 10 - 0 +20.0      +9.0 25 +11.0 5 64.2 304 +29.1 4 +24.2 1
21 St. John's 99.3%   6   15 - 5 8 - 1 +17.1      +8.9 27 +8.2 18 74.3 47 +15.4 29 +21.1 2
34 Villanova 89.8%   8   15 - 5 6 - 3 +13.9      +7.9 35 +6.1 42 60.7 357 +15.6 28 +14.9 3
53 Creighton 22.3%   12 - 9 6 - 4 +10.0      +7.3 46 +2.7 99 67.4 223 +9.4 66 +11.6 4
57 Seton Hall 32.6%   14 - 6 4 - 5 +9.6      +0.1 158 +9.5 12 64.9 287 +11.8 50 +9.5 6
58 Butler 29.9%   13 - 7 4 - 5 +9.6      +6.1 55 +3.5 80 73.9 57 +10.9 55 +8.9 7
67 Providence 2.3%   9 - 12 2 - 8 +8.4      +8.8 28 -0.4 177 78.3 15 +4.3 98 +3.0 11
79 Xavier 3.5%   11 - 9 3 - 6 +7.4      +3.8 88 +3.6 79 74.5 46 +7.7 73 +5.9 8
90 Georgetown 1.0%   10 - 10 2 - 7 +6.1      +3.6 90 +2.5 104 67.2 229 +6.2 86 +3.9 9
92 DePaul 1.9%   12 - 8 4 - 5 +6.0      +0.8 140 +5.2 53 68.0 212 +7.2 77 +10.0 5
94 Marquette 0.3%   8 - 14 3 - 8 +5.7      +2.7 104 +3.0 92 72.3 84 +1.9 134 +3.9 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 9 Connecticut 75 34 Villanova 67   
Sat, Jan 24 21 St. John's 88 79 Xavier 83   
Sat, Jan 24 92 DePaul 67 57 Seton Hall 60   
Sat, Jan 24 90 Georgetown 81 67 Providence 78   
Tue, Jan 27 67 Providence 81 9 Connecticut 87   
Tue, Jan 27 53 Creighton 62 94 Marquette 86   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 57 Seton Hall 73 79 Xavier 68 69%   
Wed, Jan 28 92 DePaul 70 90 Georgetown 73 62%   
Wed, Jan 28 58 Butler 76 21 St. John's 87 84%   
Fri, Jan 30 67 Providence 75 34 Villanova 83 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 92 DePaul 72 79 Xavier 77 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 53 Creighton 69 9 Connecticut 76 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 58 Butler 81 90 Georgetown 74 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 94 Marquette 65 57 Seton Hall 72 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.2 84.9 14.4 0.7 0.0
St. John's 1.8 26.2 64.6 8.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Villanova 3.0 1.5 17.2 66.0 10.6 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 4.5 0.1 1.5 16.0 40.8 22.2 11.6 5.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 5.4 0.4 6.9 24.9 25.8 18.7 11.7 6.6 3.0 1.5 0.5
Butler 5.6 0.0 0.4 6.2 22.2 24.5 19.7 12.5 7.6 4.1 2.0 0.8
Providence 8.2 0.3 2.7 6.6 11.0 16.0 18.2 17.6 15.7 12.0
Xavier 7.7 0.0 0.8 4.0 8.8 13.9 18.5 19.6 15.7 11.9 6.8
Georgetown 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 6.9 10.6 15.1 18.7 21.1 22.8
DePaul 7.0 0.1 2.1 9.5 13.4 16.8 19.1 15.9 11.8 7.6 3.6
Marquette 9.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.7 9.0 14.4 19.8 24.7 25.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 10.9 21.2 29.3 24.1 9.6
St. John's 16 - 4 23 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.0 11.1 20.0 25.4 22.0 11.6 2.9
Villanova 13 - 7 22 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.3 9.7 17.5 23.1 22.3 14.6 5.7 1.0
Creighton 11 - 9 17 - 14 0.2 2.2 7.9 16.5 23.3 22.6 16.6 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.0
Seton Hall 9 - 11 19 - 12 0.1 0.6 3.1 8.5 16.4 21.6 22.2 16.1 8.2 2.6 0.6 0.1
Butler 9 - 11 18 - 13 0.2 1.1 4.4 10.5 16.9 21.8 20.7 14.1 7.3 2.4 0.5 0.0
Providence 7 - 13 14 - 17 0.3 2.0 6.8 13.9 21.3 22.4 18.1 10.2 4.0 1.0 0.1
Xavier 7 - 13 15 - 16 0.6 3.4 10.6 19.0 23.7 20.6 13.5 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1
Georgetown 6 - 14 14 - 17 0.9 4.8 12.5 19.6 23.4 19.3 12.0 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
DePaul 8 - 12 16 - 15 1.5 6.3 14.2 20.0 21.6 17.3 10.9 5.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marquette 6 - 14 11 - 20 4.1 13.9 24.4 25.9 18.5 9.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 84.9% 72.7 11.7 0.4 0.0
St. John's 26.2% 14.6 11.2 0.4 0.0
Villanova 1.5% 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0
Creighton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall
Butler 0.0% 0.0
Providence
Xavier
Georgetown
DePaul
Marquette


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% 1   31.9 41.3 20.1 5.6 1.0 0.1 100.0%
St. John's 99.3% 27.3% 72.1% 6   0.8 1.9 6.6 13.3 20.6 23.8 18.5 9.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.7 99.1%
Villanova 89.8% 11.8% 78.0% 8   0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 5.0 11.5 17.6 20.1 17.4 11.8 4.0 0.0 10.2 88.5%
Creighton 22.3% 3.2% 19.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.5 6.4 9.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 77.8 19.7%
Seton Hall 32.6% 2.5% 30.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.5 5.9 10.6 12.4 0.2 67.4 30.8%
Butler 29.9% 2.6% 27.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.0 10.1 12.1 0.2 70.1 28.1%
Providence 2.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.7 1.1%
Xavier 3.5% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.5 2.6%
Georgetown 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.6%
DePaul 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1 1.4%
Marquette 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 0.0 2.2 31.9 48.2 16.2 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.6 0.0 4.0 43.3 43.2 8.9 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 2.5 0.1 9.0 42.9 40.3 7.3 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 84.8% 1.2 15.2 52.6 28.9 3.3 0.1
Elite Eight 51.5% 0.6 48.5 44.7 6.7 0.2 0.0
Final Four 25.8% 0.3 74.2 24.8 0.9 0.0
Final Game 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.5 0.1
Champion 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.8% 68.9% 38.8% 19.3% 9.1% 4.0%
St. John's 99.3% 0.2% 99.3% 76.2% 34.4% 14.0% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Villanova 89.8% 4.4% 87.6% 48.3% 12.8% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Creighton 22.3% 10.0% 16.8% 6.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 32.6% 12.9% 25.4% 8.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 29.9% 12.7% 23.0% 7.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 2.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 3.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 1.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%