Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.0 #53
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #66
Pace 67.4 #223
Improvement -2.6 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #46 B C- B+ D+ C
Defense #99 B- B D+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.37 #12 +0.4 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #284 0.77 #144 -1.6 #264
Three Pointers 51% #20 1.07 #98 +6.6 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.4 #46
Freethrows 0.26 #307 76% #68 0.20 #265
Second Chance 29.0% #229 1.01 #225 0.29 #240
Turnovers 13.7% #31
Total Offense +7.3 #46

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.12 #128 +0.4 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #18 0.69 #66 -1.9 #322
Three Pointers 33% #356 0.99 #131 +4.8 #22
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.2 #76
Freethrows 0.20 #4 70% #60 0.14 #5
Second Chance 27.3% #71 0.98 #94 0.27 #61
Turnovers 15.0% #276
Total Defense +2.7 #99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #162 -1.8% #47
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #41 -4.6% #94
Possession Length 17.5 #185 18.0 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #37 0.10 #12
Improvement +1.3 #111 -3.9 #349

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 41.0% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.7% 38.1% 13.7%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.3
.500 or above 75.7% 91.0% 70.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 89.8% 67.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.0% 15.1% 8.3%
First Round16.8% 32.4% 11.6%
Second Round6.2% 12.9% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 10
Quad 26 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 287 South Dakota W 92 - 76 96% +12  1 - 0 +6 +8 D- A+ D- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 12% -11  1 - 1 -4 -1 C+ F F -2 D+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +25 +14 A B B +15 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 290 North Dakota W 75 - 60 96% +9  3 - 1 +5 +2 F A+ B+ +4 B B+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 45 Baylor L 74 - 81 44% -5  3 - 2 +5 +6 B+ D+ F+ -2 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 7 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 17% -10  3 - 3 +2 -0 B+ F D- +2 A+ F+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 72 Oregon W 76 - 66 59% +6  4 - 3 +18 +10 C F A+ +9 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 260 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 95% +15  5 - 3 +12 +22 A+ C+ A- -9 D- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 13% -14  5 - 4 +1 -7 F+ C C+ +6 A- B C
 Sat, Dec 13 88 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 74% -8  5 - 5 -4 +9 B- F+ A+ -12 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 79 @Xavier W 98 - 57 49% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +51 +25 A+ D+ C+ +24 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 94 Marquette W 84 - 63 76% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +24 +5 B D+ B+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 223 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 93% +11  8 - 5 +16 +13 A+ F C +3 C D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 58 Butler W 89 - 85 63% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +11 +15 A A C+ -5 B+ B C-
 Sun, Jan 4 57 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 40% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -2 D C- A +13 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 34 @Villanova W 76 - 72 25% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +19 A+ B A+ +2 A A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 21 St. John's L 73 - 90 35% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F A+ -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 90 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 75% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +6 +22 A+ D+ A+ -15 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 67 @Providence L 88 - 93 45% -1  11 - 8 5 - 3 +6 +9 D+ B+ B -2 A F C-
 Wed, Jan 21 79 Xavier W 94 - 93 71% +1  12 - 8 6 - 3 +5 +20 A+ D+ A+ -15 F C- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 94 @Marquette L 62 - 86 55% -17  12 - 9 6 - 4 -15 -5 C F C- -10 F B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 9 Connecticut L 69 - 76 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 90 @Georgetown W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 57 Seton Hall W 70 - 67 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 92 @DePaul W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 34 Villanova L 71 - 72 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 9 @Connecticut L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @St. John's L 74 - 84 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 92 DePaul W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 67 Providence W 88 - 83 67%
 Wed, Mar 4 58 @Butler L 78 - 81 40%
Totals 17 - 14 11 - 9 +10 +7 B C- B+ +3 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 5.0 1.6 0.2 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 10.5 16.0 10.2 2.3 0.3 40.8 4th
5th 0.7 7.1 10.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 22.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 6.5 1.9 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.7 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 2.2 7.9 16.5 23.3 22.6 16.6 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 4.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.5% 95.4% 13.0% 82.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.7%
14-6 2.5% 88.4% 8.3% 80.2% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 87.4%
13-7 7.7% 70.8% 6.5% 64.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 1.1 2.2 68.8%
12-8 16.6% 46.0% 5.1% 40.9% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.0 0.0 9.0 43.1%
11-9 22.6% 21.3% 3.7% 17.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 0.1 17.8 18.3%
10-10 23.3% 5.5% 2.0% 3.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 22.0 3.7%
9-11 16.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.3 0.2%
8-12 7.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
7-13 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.3% 3.2% 19.1% 10.1 77.8 19.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%