Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.7 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #134
Pace 72.3 #84
Improvement +2.9 #61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C+ C A- C A
Defense #92 C+ C B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #10 1.17 #157 +5.9 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #360 0.74 #199 -5.0 #361
Three Pointers 45% #109 0.95 #269 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #143 +1.2 #141
Freethrows 0.32 #128 68% #305 0.22 #188
Second Chance 31.8% #149 0.97 #285 0.31 #197
Turnovers 12.9% #17
Total Offense +2.7 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.16 #179 -1.1 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.71 #109 +0.3 #167
Three Pointers 39% #247 0.95 #91 +2.5 #95
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #129 +1.6 #130
Freethrows 0.26 #62 75% #329 0.20 #99
Second Chance 30.3% #169 1.03 #162 0.31 #167
Turnovers 19.2% #47
Total Defense +3.0 #92

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.7% #4 0.2% #176
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #215 -3.4% #119
Possession Length 14.8 #13 18.9 #347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.15 #109
Improvement +2.8 #50 +0.2 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 15.2
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.8% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.6% 25.8% 49.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 25.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 24 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 37 - 21
Quad 45 - 011 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 309 Albany W 80 - 53 94% +13  1 - 0 +15 -6 C- F F +19 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 5 254 Southern W 100 - 82 90% +9  2 - 0 +10 +14 A- C A+ -6 D C C
 Sun, Nov 9 31 Indiana L 77 - 100 20% -12  2 - 1 -8 +4 F A+ D -11 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 92% +18  3 - 1 +30 +15 A- D- A+ +17 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 105 Maryland L 82 - 89 66% -3  3 - 2 -6 +3 F A+ B -8 F B C
 Wed, Nov 19 86 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 58% -5  3 - 3 -2 -7 D D+ D +5 D- C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 304 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 93% +5  4 - 3 +3 +5 B+ F B+ -3 C+ A- D
 Fri, Nov 28 52 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 34% +4  4 - 4 +9 +12 B+ D- A+ -3 C D+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 169 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 82% -2  5 - 4 -1 -5 D D- C- +3 D C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 38 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 16% -12  5 - 5 -4 +1 B F A+ -3 D A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 8 @Purdue L 59 - 79 6% -16  5 - 6 +3 -1 F+ A D+ +3 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 90 Georgetown L 69 - 78 60% -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -6 +3 D A- A+ -10 C F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 53 @Creighton L 63 - 84 24% -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -8 -11 F D- C +5 B- C+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 57 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 47% +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +1 +7 D+ B A+ -6 A+ F B
 Sun, Jan 4 9 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 6% -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +7 -2 D+ D+ B+ +9 A+ B- C
 Wed, Jan 7 79 Xavier W 66 - 65 55% +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +5 -5 F+ A F+ +11 B+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 34 Villanova L 73 - 76 31% -3  6 - 11 1 - 5 +8 +13 A D+ A+ -5 D B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 21 @St. John's L 68 - 92 10% -9  6 - 12 1 - 6 -4 +1 A+ F F -3 C C B-
 Fri, Jan 16 92 @DePaul L 75 - 80 38% +1  6 - 13 1 - 7 +4 +15 A+ F A+ -11 C+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 19 67 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 51% +3  7 - 13 2 - 7 +6 +16 A- A- A+ -9 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 58 @Butler L 76 - 87 26% -5  7 - 14 2 - 8 +2 +8 B+ A- D -6 B- D C
 Tue, Jan 27 53 Creighton W 86 - 62 45% +17  8 - 14 3 - 8 +31 +16 A+ C A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 57 @Seton Hall L 65 - 72 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 58 Butler L 79 - 80 48%
 Tue, Feb 10 34 @Villanova L 66 - 77 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 79 @Xavier L 76 - 81 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 21 St. John's L 75 - 83 22%
 Tue, Feb 24 90 @Georgetown L 74 - 77 38%
 Sun, Mar 1 92 DePaul W 75 - 72 60%
 Wed, Mar 4 67 @Providence L 83 - 89 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 9 Connecticut L 67 - 78 14%
Totals 11 - 20 6 - 14 +6 +3 C+ C A- +3 C+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 1.6 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.2 4.1 4.1 0.5 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 8.8 1.6 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 11.9 4.7 0.2 0.0 19.8 9th
10th 0.1 3.0 12.4 8.6 0.7 24.7 10th
11th 4.0 10.8 9.0 1.3 0.0 25.0 11th
Total 4.1 13.9 24.4 25.9 18.5 9.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.8 0.6%
9-11 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
8-12 9.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.1 18.5
6-14 25.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 25.9
5-15 24.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 24.3
4-16 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-17 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.6 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%