Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#103
Pace76.6#35
Improvement+1.4#92

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#39
First Shot+6.1#36
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#91
Layup/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#47
Freethrows+1.6#95
Improvement+2.5#30

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#154
First Shot-0.6#203
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#118
Layups/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#323
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 13.1% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.2% 11.5% 4.2%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.1
.500 or above 49.4% 61.1% 34.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.7% 44.2% 20.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 5.8% 15.5%
First Four3.3% 4.4% 1.9%
First Round7.9% 10.8% 4.2%
Second Round3.0% 4.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 16
Quad 35 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 289 Holy Cross W 89-79 94%     1 - 0 +0.0 +1.7 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 8 64 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 48%     1 - 1 +2.5 +9.9 -6.0
  Tue, Nov 11 253 Penn W 106-81 93%     2 - 1 +16.8 +15.6 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 14 62 @Colorado L 88-97 35%     2 - 2 +2.8 +7.9 -4.1
  Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98-66 97%     3 - 2 +18.3 +21.4 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 104 Penn St. W 77-65 64%     4 - 2 +16.2 +3.1 +13.1
  Thu, Nov 27 40 Wisconsin L 83-104 35%     4 - 3 -9.1 +3.4 -9.5
  Fri, Nov 28 13 Florida L 78-90 17%     4 - 4 +5.9 +11.1 -4.6
  Tue, Dec 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.1 +17.4 -3.3
  Sat, Dec 6 116 Rhode Island W 90-71 77%     6 - 4 +19.3 +18.6 +0.7
  Tue, Dec 9 219 Brown W 86-79 90%     7 - 4 +0.6 +6.8 -6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 54 @Butler L 110-113 2OT 32%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +9.9 +21.1 -10.7
  Fri, Dec 19 56 Seton Hall W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 @St. John's L 79-91 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 6 Connecticut L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 77 @Xavier L 80-83 40%    
  Tue, Jan 13 37 Villanova L 76-78 45%    
  Fri, Jan 16 59 Creighton W 81-79 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 88 @Marquette L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 101 Georgetown W 85-79 71%    
  Tue, Jan 27 6 @Connecticut L 69-85 8%    
  Fri, Jan 30 37 @Villanova L 73-81 25%    
  Wed, Feb 4 54 Butler W 86-85 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 114 DePaul W 83-75 76%    
  Wed, Feb 11 56 @Seton Hall L 73-78 34%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 St. John's L 82-88 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 114 @DePaul W 80-78 56%    
  Tue, Feb 24 77 Xavier W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 59 @Creighton L 78-82 35%    
  Wed, Mar 4 88 Marquette W 85-80 67%    
  Sat, Mar 7 101 @Georgetown W 83-82 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 6.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.0 4.2 0.9 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 6.9 10.2 13.4 14.7 14.2 12.4 8.9 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 47.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 14.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 92.1% 7.9% 84.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.4%
14-6 1.7% 80.4% 7.8% 72.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 78.8%
13-7 3.5% 62.3% 5.0% 57.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.3 60.3%
12-8 6.2% 39.1% 4.4% 34.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 3.8 36.3%
11-9 8.9% 16.8% 2.5% 14.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 7.4 14.6%
10-10 12.4% 6.7% 2.3% 4.4% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 11.6 4.5%
9-11 14.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 14.0 0.4%
8-12 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 11.4 0.1 0.0 14.6
7-13 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 6.9
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.6% 1.5% 8.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.9 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.4 8.2%