Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.4 #67
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #98
Pace 78.3 #15
Improvement +1.3 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 B+ B+ B B+ B
Defense #177 C+ C+ C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.33 #25 +5.0 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #314 0.78 #135 -2.3 #295
Three Pointers 45% #101 1.09 #80 +3.7 #59
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #32 +6.3 #32
Freethrows 0.34 #68 78% #13 0.27 #27
Second Chance 33.5% #101 1.23 #19 0.41 #38
Turnovers 14.4% #57
Total Offense +8.8 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.07 #72 +2.8 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #85 0.69 #67 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.11 #299 -1.3 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #143 +1.2 #144
Freethrows 0.27 #79 72% #143 0.19 #83
Second Chance 30.2% #162 0.99 #102 0.30 #126
Turnovers 15.3% #246
Total Defense -0.4 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #52 -1.0% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #39 -1.3% #161
Possession Length 14.9 #15 17.8 #257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #17 0.15 #130
Improvement +2.3 #69 -1.1 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 5.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 3.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.1 10.5 11.6
.500 or above 17.8% 36.8% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 14.1% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.8% 10.7% 27.3%
First Four0.8% 2.2% 0.4%
First Round1.9% 4.1% 1.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 10
Quad 23 - 76 - 17
Quad 34 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 326 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  1 - 0 -3 +1 D+ C+ B- -5 D A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 60 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 46% -0  1 - 1 +3 +11 B B B -7 D+ C- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 193 Penn W 106 - 81 89% +10  2 - 1 +20 +18 A+ A+ F+ -1 A C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 82 @Colorado L 88 - 97 44% -4  2 - 2 +1 +8 C D+ B+ -6 B- F+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 319 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 96% +13  3 - 2 +19 +22 A+ C- B+ -2 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 112 Penn St. W 77 - 65 68% +3  4 - 2 +15 +3 F B+ A+ +12 A+ B B-
 Thu, Nov 27 38 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 32% -14  4 - 3 -8 +3 B B C- -8 C C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 10 Florida L 78 - 90 15% -9  4 - 4 +8 +11 A- D+ B -3 A- C F+
 Tue, Dec 2 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  5 - 4 +15 +19 A+ A- C -3 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 111 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 77% +5  6 - 4 +20 +19 A+ B+ C +0 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 265 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  7 - 4 -2 +6 B C D -9 C C F
 Sat, Dec 13 58 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 34% +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +10 +22 A+ B- A+ -12 C C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 57 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 57% -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +3 C+ D B+ -1 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 21 @St. John's W 77 - 71 14% -4  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +9 F+ A+ A+ +17 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 9 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 21% +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +12 +20 A+ A+ D+ -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 79 @Xavier L 84 - 97 42% -11  8 - 8 1 - 4 -3 +6 C C A+ -7 C- B F
 Tue, Jan 13 34 Villanova L 82 - 88 40% -7  8 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +15 A+ A- C+ -10 F+ A C-
 Fri, Jan 16 53 Creighton W 93 - 88 55% +1  9 - 9 2 - 5 +12 +14 C A+ B -2 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 94 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 49% -3  9 - 10 2 - 6 +8 +21 A+ A+ D -13 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 90 Georgetown L 78 - 81 70% +9  9 - 11 2 - 7 +0 +13 B C+ A -13 F A- D
 Tue, Jan 27 9 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 9% -4  9 - 12 2 - 8 +17 +18 A+ A- B+ -1 B- B D
 Fri, Jan 30 34 @Villanova L 74 - 83 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 58 Butler W 89 - 87 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 92 DePaul W 83 - 78 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 57 @Seton Hall L 74 - 78 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 21 St. John's L 84 - 90 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 92 @DePaul L 80 - 81 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 79 Xavier W 89 - 85 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 @Creighton L 83 - 88 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 94 Marquette W 89 - 83 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 90 @Georgetown L 83 - 84 48%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8 +9 B+ B+ B +0 C+ C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.7 4th
5th 0.7 3.7 2.0 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.5 5.5 4.5 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.3 5.6 8.8 1.4 0.0 16.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 11.2 3.0 0.1 18.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 10.4 4.6 0.2 17.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 7.3 6.0 0.5 15.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.9 5.0 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.0 11th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.8 13.9 21.3 22.4 18.1 10.2 4.0 1.0 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 77.8% 14.8% 63.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.9%
11-9 1.0% 40.2% 6.2% 34.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 36.3%
10-10 4.0% 16.5% 4.0% 12.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.4 13.1%
9-11 10.2% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 10.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 9.7 1.8%
8-12 18.1% 1.7% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.8
7-13 22.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 22.2
6-14 21.3% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 21.2
5-15 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.1 0.0 13.8
4-16 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.8
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 1.2% 1.1% 11.1 97.7 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%