Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#54
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#43
Pace73.0#85
Improvement-1.0#249

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#43
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#9
Layup/Dunks+2.4#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows+1.7#91
Improvement+1.3#81

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#89
First Shot+3.0#78
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#34
Freethrows+2.9#37
Improvement-2.3#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 3.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 13.9% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.3% 68.1% 40.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.2% 66.2% 38.6%
Average Seed 8.9 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 88.5% 96.9% 87.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 84.3% 60.4%
Conference Champion 2.3% 10.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four8.5% 7.5% 8.6%
First Round38.7% 63.7% 36.0%
Second Round17.3% 32.2% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 7.6% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 2.3% 1.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 12
Quad 35 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 317 Southern Indiana W 88-58 97%     1 - 0 +17.8 +5.3 +10.5
  Sat, Nov 8 355 IU Indianapolis W 112-80 99%     2 - 0 +14.9 +4.1 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 350 Chicago St. W 98-66 98%     3 - 0 +16.4 +12.6 +2.4
  Sat, Nov 15 39 @SMU L 85-87 31%     3 - 1 +13.0 +13.0 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 21 87 South Carolina W 79-72 65%     4 - 1 +13.0 +10.7 +2.4
  Sun, Nov 23 25 Virginia W 80-73 31%     5 - 1 +21.9 +13.3 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 143 Wright St. W 94-69 86%     6 - 1 +23.0 +13.7 +7.5
  Tue, Dec 2 228 Eastern Michigan W 84-68 93%     7 - 1 +9.2 +13.7 -3.6
  Sat, Dec 6 46 Boise St. L 68-77 57%     7 - 2 -1.0 +3.5 -4.9
  Sat, Dec 13 70 Providence W 113-110 2OT 68%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +7.9 +18.3 -10.9
  Tue, Dec 16 6 @Connecticut L 67-81 10%    
  Sat, Dec 20 58 Northwestern W 80-79 52%    
  Mon, Dec 22 352 NJIT W 88-62 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 59 @Creighton L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 3 37 Villanova W 75-74 52%    
  Tue, Jan 6 16 St. John's L 80-84 34%    
  Wed, Jan 14 77 @Xavier L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 56 @Seton Hall L 71-74 40%    
  Tue, Jan 20 114 DePaul W 81-71 81%    
  Fri, Jan 23 88 Marquette W 83-76 74%    
  Wed, Jan 28 16 @St. John's L 77-87 18%    
  Sat, Jan 31 101 Georgetown W 83-75 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 70 @Providence L 85-86 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 88 @Marquette W 80-79 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 6 Connecticut L 70-78 24%    
  Sun, Feb 15 56 Seton Hall W 74-71 61%    
  Wed, Feb 18 101 @Georgetown W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 77 Xavier W 81-76 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 37 @Villanova L 71-77 31%    
  Wed, Mar 4 59 Creighton W 79-75 62%    
  Sat, Mar 7 114 @DePaul W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.7 5.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 16.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 6.5 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 17.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.6 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.2 6.9 10.3 12.3 14.0 14.2 12.2 9.3 6.6 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 68.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 40.9% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 15.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-4 1.9% 99.3% 14.4% 84.9% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 3.8% 98.8% 11.2% 87.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
14-6 6.6% 95.9% 9.2% 86.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 95.5%
13-7 9.3% 87.4% 6.3% 81.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.6 1.9 0.4 1.2 86.6%
12-8 12.2% 73.5% 4.4% 69.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.2 1.5 0.0 3.2 72.3%
11-9 14.2% 52.9% 3.1% 49.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 2.4 0.0 6.7 51.4%
10-10 14.0% 31.8% 2.2% 29.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 0.1 9.5 30.2%
9-11 12.3% 10.0% 1.1% 8.9% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 11.1 9.0%
8-12 10.3% 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 1.1%
7-13 6.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.2%
6-14 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 43.3% 3.6% 39.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.4 6.6 9.2 10.6 7.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.7 41.2%