Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.6 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 #55
Pace 73.9 #57
Improvement -3.2 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B- A B- B+ B
Defense #80 B B- C A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.24 #96 +4.5 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #304 0.82 #90 -1.7 #270
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.04 #141 +1.1 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #70 +3.9 #70
Freethrows 0.37 #18 72% #186 0.27 #30
Second Chance 36.3% #36 1.27 #8 0.46 #12
Turnovers 15.2% #101
Total Offense +6.1 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.14 #153 -2.7 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #140 0.63 #15 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 35% #339 0.87 #29 +5.7 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #60 +4.0 #60
Freethrows 0.22 #10 71% #136 0.15 #12
Second Chance 30.1% #155 0.93 #43 0.28 #90
Turnovers 16.9% #150
Total Defense +3.5 #80

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #46 0.5% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #93 -8.3% #41
Possession Length 15.6 #39 17.9 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #67 0.19 #237
Improvement -0.7 #220 -2.5 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 51.7% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.1% 49.6% 24.0%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 94.6% 99.4% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.0% 70.3% 40.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.2% 3.2%
First Four12.7% 15.4% 12.1%
First Round23.0% 43.5% 19.1%
Second Round7.8% 15.2% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.7% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 16.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 8
Quad 26 - 59 - 13
Quad 34 - 114 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 321 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  1 - 0 +17 +7 B- B+ D +9 B+ A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 340 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 98% +14  2 - 0 +18 +5 D A+ C +5 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 358 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  3 - 0 +14 +13 B A+ C- +0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 36 @SMU L 85 - 87 24% +0  3 - 1 +15 +13 A+ B- F +2 D+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 78 South Carolina W 79 - 72 58% +7  4 - 1 +15 +11 C A+ C +3 A+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 22 Virginia W 80 - 73 24% +5  5 - 1 +24 +15 A+ C- D- +9 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 153 Wright St. W 94 - 69 87% +5  6 - 1 +23 +12 A A+ B+ +9 B A B-
 Tue, Dec 2 241 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 93% +7  7 - 1 +9 +14 A- A+ C- -5 C+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 59 Boise St. L 68 - 77 62% -2  7 - 2 -3 +2 C- A A -5 A+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 67 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 66% -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +18 B A- A+ -10 C B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 9 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 11% -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +4 -0 F+ B A +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 61 Northwestern W 61 - 58 52% +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D C+ F+ +18 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 338 NJIT W 101 - 52 98% +29  10 - 3 +35 +19 A+ A+ B +13 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 53 @Creighton L 85 - 89 37% -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +9 +13 C A- C+ -4 C F B
 Sat, Jan 3 34 Villanova L 67 - 85 45% -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ C -5 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 21 St. John's L 70 - 84 33% +1  10 - 6 1 - 4 +0 +3 A+ F F -2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 79 @Xavier L 75 - 89 47% -11  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +4 D A+ C -7 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 57 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 38% +6  11 - 7 2 - 5 +24 +18 A- F A+ +6 A+ B- A-
 Tue, Jan 20 92 DePaul W 87 - 80 74% +8  12 - 7 3 - 5 +10 +16 A+ A B- -6 A+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 23 94 Marquette W 87 - 76 74% +5  13 - 7 4 - 5 +14 +16 C+ A+ A- -2 C- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 21 @St. John's L 76 - 87 16%
 Sat, Jan 31 90 Georgetown W 81 - 75 73%
 Wed, Feb 4 67 @Providence L 87 - 89 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 94 @Marquette W 80 - 79 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 9 Connecticut L 71 - 78 24%
 Sun, Feb 15 57 Seton Hall W 73 - 70 61%
 Wed, Feb 18 90 @Georgetown W 78 - 77 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 79 Xavier W 84 - 79 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 34 @Villanova L 70 - 77 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 53 Creighton W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 92 @DePaul W 76 - 75 53%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10 +6 B- A B- +3 B B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.0 8.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 22.2 4th
5th 1.1 8.9 10.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 24.5 5th
6th 0.5 6.7 9.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 19.7 6th
7th 0.0 3.3 7.2 1.9 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.7 1.9 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 1.9 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.4 10.5 16.9 21.8 20.7 14.1 7.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 99.0% 10.1% 88.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-7 2.4% 92.6% 8.2% 84.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 91.9%
12-8 7.3% 77.7% 6.6% 71.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.0 1.6 76.2%
11-9 14.1% 61.4% 4.6% 56.8% 10.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.7 3.1 0.0 5.4 59.5%
10-10 20.7% 42.5% 3.0% 39.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.9 0.1 11.9 40.7%
9-11 21.8% 15.8% 1.7% 14.1% 10.8 0.1 0.6 2.7 0.1 18.4 14.4%
8-12 16.9% 3.0% 0.8% 2.3% 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 16.4 2.3%
7-13 10.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.1%
6-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.9% 2.6% 27.3% 10.0 70.1 28.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%