Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.9 #34
Expected Predictive Rating +15.6 #28
Pace 60.7 #357
Improvement -0.8 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 B+ B B- C C+
Defense #42 B- B- B+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.32 #32 +0.6 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #295 0.78 #143 -1.9 #274
Three Pointers 50% #27 1.14 #31 +7.7 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #29 +6.4 #29
Freethrows 0.29 #216 74% #130 0.22 #206
Second Chance 36.1% #40 1.08 #134 0.39 #56
Turnovers 14.7% #78
Total Offense +7.9 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 1.08 #84 +2.7 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #43 0.70 #95 -1.4 #294
Three Pointers 38% #278 1.01 #168 +2.0 #114
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #78 +3.2 #78
Freethrows 0.22 #14 67% #11 0.15 #10
Second Chance 30.4% #173 0.91 #32 0.28 #82
Turnovers 19.6% #37
Total Defense +6.1 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #131 -1.7% #54
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.6% #25 -4.6% #95
Possession Length 18.4 #279 18.9 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #158 0.10 #19
Improvement -0.9 #229 +0.2 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.9% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 19.0% 21.3% 10.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.8% 91.2% 84.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.5% 90.0% 82.8%
Average Seed 7.9 7.7 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.1% 94.9%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.4% 3.9% 6.2%
First Round87.6% 89.2% 81.4%
Second Round48.3% 50.4% 40.3%
Sweet Sixteen12.8% 13.8% 9.4%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.0% 3.0%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 312 - 9
Quad 38 - 020 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 BYU L 66 - 71 33% -6  0 - 1 +14 +3 F A+ B- +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 186 Queens W 94 - 74 95% +12  1 - 1 +15 +17 C A+ B -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 277 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 98% +21  2 - 1 +24 +20 A+ B+ F +6 C D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 116 Duquesne W 87 - 77 90% +6  3 - 1 +10 +15 C- A+ D -5 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 200 @La Salle W 70 - 55 89% +11  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ D+ F +8 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 232 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 96% +6  5 - 1 +7 +18 A+ B+ A- -11 D+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 143 Temple W 74 - 56 92% +5  6 - 1 +16 +15 B- C+ C +5 A- B- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 193 Penn W 90 - 63 92% +15  7 - 1 +25 +21 A+ C C +5 B C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 11% -23  7 - 2 -0 -3 C+ D- C- +6 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 85% +6  8 - 2 +21 +23 A+ B- A+ +2 A+ F+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 38 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 52% +7  9 - 2 +23 +9 C- A A +14 B+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 57 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 55% +8  10 - 2 1 - 0 +21 +9 A+ A- F +12 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 92 DePaul W 71 - 66 85% -2  11 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +5 C D A+ +3 B C A
 Sat, Jan 3 58 @Butler W 85 - 67 55% +3  12 - 2 3 - 0 +31 +16 A+ D+ C+ +14 A+ F+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 53 Creighton L 72 - 76 75% +2  12 - 3 3 - 1 +3 +9 C+ C+ A+ -6 C- D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 94 @Marquette W 76 - 73 69% +3  13 - 3 4 - 1 +12 +16 A+ C+ A- -4 D B+ B-
 Tue, Jan 13 67 @Providence W 88 - 82 60% +7  14 - 3 5 - 1 +17 +17 A+ C- C+ +0 D+ C A-
 Sat, Jan 17 21 St. John's L 79 - 86 49% -3  14 - 4 5 - 2 +7 +12 A+ B+ C -5 C- B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 90 Georgetown W 66 - 51 85% +8  15 - 4 6 - 2 +18 +2 C- C B +18 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 9 @Connecticut L 67 - 75 OT 19% +2  15 - 5 6 - 3 +15 +12 D A+ B +2 A+ D- D
 Fri, Jan 30 67 Providence W 83 - 74 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 57 Seton Hall W 68 - 61 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 90 @Georgetown W 72 - 67 68%
 Tue, Feb 10 94 Marquette W 77 - 66 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 53 @Creighton W 72 - 71 54%
 Tue, Feb 17 79 @Xavier W 75 - 71 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 9 Connecticut L 66 - 69 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 58 Butler W 77 - 70 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 21 @St. John's L 70 - 76 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 92 @DePaul W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Mar 7 79 Xavier W 78 - 68 81%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14 +8 B+ B B- +6 B- B- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 6.7 4.0 0.5 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.4 14.0 20.7 17.8 7.6 0.9 66.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.3 9.7 17.5 23.1 22.3 14.6 5.7 1.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 56.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 13.2% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2
15-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.7% 99.9% 20.8% 79.1% 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 14.6% 99.2% 15.8% 83.4% 6.5 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.3 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.0%
14-6 22.3% 97.7% 13.6% 84.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 6.8 6.4 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.5 97.4%
13-7 23.1% 94.1% 11.5% 82.7% 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 6.7 6.3 2.8 0.4 1.4 93.4%
12-8 17.5% 85.7% 8.5% 77.2% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 4.8 4.2 1.1 2.5 84.3%
11-9 9.7% 75.2% 6.5% 68.7% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.8 1.3 2.4 73.5%
10-10 4.3% 55.4% 4.5% 50.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.9 53.3%
9-11 1.5% 30.8% 2.7% 28.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 28.9%
8-12 0.3% 7.8% 7.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.8%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.8% 11.8% 78.0% 7.9 10.2 88.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.8 5.0 25.0 55.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.0 1.5 30.8 40.0 23.1 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 4.6 9.8 37.3 33.3 17.6 2.0