Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+26.3#6
Pace63.2#328
Improvement-1.4#279

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#12
First Shot+9.2#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks+8.6#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#109
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-2.7#348

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#7
First Shot+9.6#8
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#135
Layups/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#5
Freethrows-3.2#336
Improvement+1.3#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.7% 6.1% 2.5%
#1 Seed 30.0% 31.6% 15.9%
Top 2 Seed 62.8% 65.0% 42.6%
Top 4 Seed 92.7% 93.8% 82.6%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.2% 96.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.4 2.3 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 70.4% 72.7% 49.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round95.9% 96.4% 91.9%
Sweet Sixteen70.3% 71.0% 63.1%
Elite Eight42.3% 43.1% 34.3%
Final Four22.5% 23.1% 16.6%
Championship Game10.9% 11.2% 7.9%
National Champion5.1% 5.2% 3.5%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 25 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 4
Quad 29 - 119 - 5
Quad 35 - 025 - 5
Quad 44 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 337 New Haven W 79-55 99.5%    1 - 0 +10.2 +5.7 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 7 304 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +52.1 +24.9 +23.1
  Mon, Nov 10 138 Columbia W 89-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.5 +19.9 +7.0
  Sat, Nov 15 9 BYU W 86-84 55%     4 - 0 +21.3 +16.4 +4.8
  Wed, Nov 19 3 Arizona L 67-71 54%     4 - 1 +15.5 +10.8 +4.2
  Sun, Nov 23 297 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +12.6 +0.8 +13.5
  Fri, Nov 28 14 Illinois W 74-61 61%     6 - 1 +30.8 +11.3 +20.2
  Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kansas W 61-56 53%     7 - 1 +24.8 +7.5 +17.9
  Fri, Dec 5 303 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99%     8 - 1 +13.1 +12.5 +2.2
  Tue, Dec 9 13 Florida W 77-73 61%     9 - 1 +21.9 +16.5 +5.5
  Fri, Dec 12 41 Texas W 71-63 86%     10 - 1 +16.9 +4.2 +13.1
  Tue, Dec 16 54 Butler W 81-67 90%    
  Sun, Dec 21 114 @DePaul W 75-61 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 77 @Xavier W 76-66 83%    
  Sun, Jan 4 88 Marquette W 80-62 95%    
  Wed, Jan 7 70 @Providence W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 114 DePaul W 78-58 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 56 @Seton Hall W 70-62 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 101 @Georgetown W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 37 Villanova W 73-62 85%    
  Tue, Jan 27 70 Providence W 85-69 92%    
  Sat, Jan 31 59 @Creighton W 73-65 77%    
  Tue, Feb 3 77 Xavier W 79-63 93%    
  Fri, Feb 6 16 @St. John's W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 11 54 @Butler W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 101 Georgetown W 81-62 95%    
  Wed, Feb 18 59 Creighton W 76-62 90%    
  Sat, Feb 21 37 @Villanova W 70-65 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 16 St. John's W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 Seton Hall W 73-59 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 88 @Marquette W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 10.1 16.7 19.1 14.0 5.8 70.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 6.1 6.0 3.5 0.9 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 16.3 20.3 19.9 14.0 5.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.8    5.8
19-1 100.0% 14.0    13.8 0.2
18-2 95.6% 19.1    17.2 1.9
17-3 82.5% 16.7    13.2 3.4 0.1
16-4 62.1% 10.1    6.5 3.3 0.3
15-5 34.5% 3.7    1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 70.4% 70.4 58.5 10.9 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.8% 100.0% 69.6% 30.4% 1.2 4.5 1.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 14.0% 100.0% 64.5% 35.5% 1.4 9.1 4.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 19.9% 100.0% 57.6% 42.4% 1.6 9.1 9.1 1.7 0.1 100.0%
17-3 20.3% 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 2.0 5.4 9.5 4.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.3% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 2.6 1.6 5.9 6.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.7% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 3.2 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.5% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 3.9 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 3.5% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 4.6 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.8% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.7% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.3% 98.8% 19.5% 79.3% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
9-11 0.1% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.4 30.0 32.7 19.9 10.0 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 20.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.3 72.9 26.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.3 72.9 25.9 1.2