Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Connecticut 100.0%   2   10 - 1 0 - 0 27 - 4 17 - 3 +20.6      +10.2 12 +10.4 7 63.2 330 +26.3 6 0.0 2
16 St. John's 94.6%   5   6 - 3 0 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +17.3      +9.1 20 +8.3 13 75.2 46 +12.5 48 0.0 2
36 Villanova 62.7%   10   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.4      +7.6 36 +4.8 52 60.9 358 +13.8 36 0.0 2
54 Butler 43.3%   8 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.0      +7.3 42 +2.7 90 72.8 87 +12.7 44 +20.1 1
56 Seton Hall 47.4%   11   10 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 10 +9.5      +2.7 111 +6.9 26 64.8 303 +17.0 20 0.0 2
59 Creighton 18.6%   5 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +9.3      +5.8 60 +3.5 72 65.4 288 +5.2 98 0.0 2
69 Providence 9.3%   7 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 16 8 - 12 +7.9      +7.6 37 +0.4 154 76.6 32 +5.0 100 -2.2 11
76 Xavier 14.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.7      +3.4 91 +4.2 64 71.2 137 +9.0 70 0.0 2
88 Marquette 2.1%   5 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 19 7 - 13 +5.9      +2.0 120 +3.9 69 73.5 68 -0.7 181 0.0 2
101 Georgetown 4.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +4.9      +3.1 101 +1.8 109 70.0 167 +9.4 66 0.0 2
113 DePaul 0.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +3.4      +0.1 165 +3.2 77 68.0 222 +3.2 126 0.0 2




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Dec 12 41 Texas 63 6 Connecticut 71   
Fri, Dec 12 251 Missouri St. 57 76 Xavier 75   
Sat, Dec 13 59 Creighton 76 67 Kansas St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 54 Butler 113 69 Providence 110   
Sat, Dec 13 113 DePaul 61 100 Wichita St. 58   
Sat, Dec 13 107 Pittsburgh 61 36 Villanova 79   
Sat, Dec 13 88 Marquette 59 7 Purdue 79   
Sat, Dec 13 132 Rutgers 59 56 Seton Hall 81   
Sat, Dec 13 171 Iona 64 16 St. John's 91   
Sat, Dec 13 101 Georgetown 76 293 St. Peter's 68   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 54 Butler 67 6 Connecticut 81 89%   
Tue, Dec 16 113 DePaul 66 16 St. John's 83 93%   
Wed, Dec 17 59 Creighton 72 76 Xavier 74 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 101 Georgetown 74 88 Marquette 78 65%   
Fri, Dec 19 36 Villanova 74 40 Wisconsin 73 52%   
Fri, Dec 19 69 Providence 77 56 Seton Hall 75 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.4 70.6 21.5 5.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.2 32.0 40.9 14.9 6.4 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Villanova 4.1 6.1 16.8 25.3 17.6 12.3 8.4 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.5
Butler 5.1 2.2 7.8 16.9 17.7 15.9 12.9 10.1 7.2 5.0 3.0 1.2
Seton Hall 5.7 1.6 6.1 13.3 15.6 14.8 13.6 11.0 9.3 7.2 4.9 2.6
Creighton 5.8 1.4 5.8 12.6 15.0 14.4 13.3 11.8 9.9 7.4 5.5 2.7
Providence 6.8 0.4 2.1 6.3 10.2 12.5 14.1 14.2 13.5 11.9 9.2 5.6
Xavier 6.7 0.5 2.8 7.7 10.7 12.5 13.3 13.3 12.6 11.6 9.1 6.0
Marquette 7.7 0.1 1.1 3.7 6.2 8.7 10.5 12.3 14.3 15.7 15.1 12.3
Georgetown 8.2 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.7 6.5 8.5 11.0 13.5 16.0 18.5 18.1
DePaul 9.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.9 8.3 11.3 15.2 21.4 30.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.4 11.0 15.7 20.3 19.7 14.6 5.8
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.2 6.9 10.0 13.7 16.3 16.0 13.9 9.6 4.2 1.1
Villanova 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.4 8.3 11.0 13.0 14.0 13.3 11.4 8.2 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
Butler 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.9 10.1 12.8 14.1 13.9 12.3 9.9 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 8.9 11.3 13.1 13.8 12.6 10.6 7.9 4.8 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Creighton 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.5 9.3 11.9 13.5 13.4 12.3 9.8 7.6 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.2 10.3 12.9 14.5 14.5 12.6 9.1 5.9 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Xavier 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 6.8 10.1 12.7 13.6 13.8 12.1 9.3 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.4 8.3 11.2 13.3 14.6 13.6 11.2 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.9 10.1 13.2 14.8 14.1 12.0 9.4 6.4 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 0.6 2.7 6.6 10.9 14.3 15.2 14.6 12.4 9.1 6.4 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 70.6% 58.6 10.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
St. John's 32.0% 21.6 9.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Villanova 6.1% 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Butler 2.2% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
Seton Hall 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Creighton 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Providence 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Xavier 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marquette 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 2   29.7 32.7 20.1 10.1 4.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 94.6% 27.0% 67.6% 5   3.3 6.5 10.4 13.9 14.5 13.7 12.0 8.8 5.9 3.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 92.6%
Villanova 62.7% 8.2% 54.5% 10   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.4 8.2 9.6 10.6 11.4 8.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 37.4 59.3%
Butler 43.3% 3.5% 39.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.5 6.9 8.8 10.9 7.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 56.7 41.2%
Seton Hall 47.4% 3.1% 44.3% 11   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.2 9.4 11.2 9.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 52.6 45.7%
Creighton 18.6% 2.8% 15.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.8 4.7 4.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.4 16.2%
Providence 9.3% 1.6% 7.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 3.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.7 7.8%
Xavier 14.9% 1.5% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.4 4.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 13.6%
Marquette 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.9 1.4%
Georgetown 4.6% 0.5% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4 4.2%
DePaul 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.7% 70.5% 42.5% 22.3% 10.9% 5.1%
St. John's 94.6% 2.1% 93.7% 73.3% 38.1% 17.2% 7.8% 3.3% 1.3%
Villanova 62.7% 9.1% 58.1% 31.7% 9.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Butler 43.3% 9.1% 38.3% 17.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Seton Hall 47.4% 10.6% 41.2% 17.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Creighton 18.6% 5.0% 15.9% 7.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 9.3% 3.3% 7.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 14.9% 5.1% 12.1% 4.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 2.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 4.6% 1.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.0 0.0 3.5 25.2 44.7 22.8 3.6 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 0.1 6.1 33.8 42.9 15.3 1.7 0.1
2nd Round 99.7% 2.5 0.3 9.4 41.2 38.0 10.4 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 86.8% 1.3 13.2 50.1 32.5 4.1 0.2
Elite Eight 56.9% 0.7 43.2 48.3 8.4 0.2
Final Four 30.4% 0.3 69.6 28.8 1.5 0.0
Final Game 14.4% 0.1 85.6 14.2 0.2
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5