Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Connecticut 100.0%   1   20 - 1 10 - 0 +20.1      +9.0 26 +11.1 5 64.2 303 +29.4 3 +24.2 1
18 St. John's 99.5%   6   16 - 5 9 - 1 +17.5      +9.5 21 +7.9 19 73.3 66 +15.6 29 +21.4 2
36 Villanova 90.1%   8   15 - 5 6 - 3 +13.9      +7.8 37 +6.1 41 60.8 355 +15.7 28 +15.0 3
53 Seton Hall 42.8%   11   15 - 6 5 - 5 +10.2      +0.6 145 +9.7 11 65.3 274 +12.2 47 +10.1 5
55 Creighton 22.0%   12 - 9 6 - 4 +10.0      +7.3 45 +2.7 99 67.5 222 +9.3 64 +11.6 4
60 Butler 22.6%   13 - 8 4 - 6 +9.1      +6.4 53 +2.7 98 72.8 78 +10.6 56 +8.7 6
66 Providence 2.2%   9 - 12 2 - 8 +8.5      +8.8 28 -0.3 174 78.4 13 +4.3 99 +3.0 11
83 Xavier 1.6%   11 - 10 3 - 7 +6.9      +3.7 88 +3.2 83 75.0 41 +7.3 77 +5.4 8
89 Georgetown 1.4%   11 - 10 3 - 7 +6.4      +3.9 85 +2.5 105 66.4 248 +6.7 82 +5.2 9
93 Marquette 0.3%   8 - 14 3 - 8 +5.7      +2.6 105 +3.1 88 72.5 83 +1.9 136 +3.9 10
95 DePaul 0.9%   12 - 9 4 - 6 +5.6      +0.8 140 +4.8 60 68.0 210 +6.4 84 +8.5 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 27 66 Providence 81 10 Connecticut 87   
Tue, Jan 27 55 Creighton 62 93 Marquette 86   
Wed, Jan 28 53 Seton Hall 86 83 Xavier 68   
Wed, Jan 28 60 Butler 70 18 St. John's 92   
Wed, Jan 28 95 DePaul 61 89 Georgetown 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 66 Providence 75 36 Villanova 83 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 60 Butler 80 89 Georgetown 74 71%   
Sat, Jan 31 55 Creighton 68 10 Connecticut 76 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 95 DePaul 73 83 Xavier 77 66%   
Sat, Jan 31 93 Marquette 65 53 Seton Hall 73 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.2 82.7 16.4 0.8 0.1
St. John's 1.8 29.6 63.6 6.4 0.4 0.0
Villanova 3.0 1.3 14.6 68.6 11.3 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 4.9 0.0 0.4 10.4 32.0 29.3 16.0 6.9 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
Creighton 4.5 0.1 1.2 16.1 40.5 23.7 11.8 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Butler 5.9 0.1 4.1 18.5 23.0 23.0 13.7 8.6 5.2 2.7 1.1
Providence 8.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.8 12.5 17.5 17.6 16.3 14.1 12.0
Xavier 8.1 0.3 1.7 5.6 11.4 17.9 19.0 18.3 15.7 10.1
Georgetown 8.3 0.2 2.2 5.2 10.0 15.2 17.2 18.9 17.8 13.4
Marquette 9.1 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.4 10.0 14.1 18.8 22.0 27.1
DePaul 7.4 0.0 1.0 5.8 10.1 15.7 20.7 17.4 14.1 10.2 5.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 10.8 21.3 29.1 24.6 8.9
St. John's 16 - 4 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 9.2 18.4 25.6 25.3 14.1 3.6
Villanova 13 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 10.1 17.2 22.6 22.2 15.0 5.7 1.1
Seton Hall 10 - 10 20 - 11 0.1 1.0 4.5 11.6 21.0 24.6 20.0 11.5 4.5 1.1 0.1
Creighton 11 - 9 17 - 14 0.3 2.3 7.5 17.1 23.2 22.9 15.8 8.0 2.4 0.6 0.0
Butler 9 - 11 18 - 13 0.2 1.7 6.0 12.8 20.0 22.4 18.9 11.5 5.1 1.4 0.1
Providence 7 - 13 14 - 17 0.2 1.8 6.3 13.7 20.3 23.7 18.4 10.4 4.0 1.1 0.1
Xavier 7 - 13 15 - 16 0.9 5.0 14.3 24.1 24.4 18.3 9.2 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 15 - 16 1.6 7.4 16.7 24.2 22.7 16.0 7.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Marquette 6 - 14 11 - 20 3.8 14.9 24.1 25.9 18.0 9.2 3.2 0.9 0.1
DePaul 7 - 13 15 - 16 2.3 9.0 18.6 23.4 21.1 14.6 7.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 82.7% 69.6 12.8 0.3
St. John's 29.6% 16.8 12.4 0.3
Villanova 1.3% 0.3 0.6 0.3
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0
Creighton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Butler
Providence
Xavier
Georgetown
Marquette
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 1   30.3 41.6 20.8 6.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 99.5% 29.8% 69.7% 6   0.8 2.5 6.9 14.8 22.7 23.5 17.1 7.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.5 99.2%
Villanova 90.1% 11.5% 78.6% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.0 11.1 17.0 19.6 18.3 12.3 4.4 0.0 10.0 88.8%
Seton Hall 42.8% 3.1% 39.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.7 8.1 14.1 14.8 0.2 57.2 41.0%
Creighton 22.0% 3.1% 18.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 6.0 10.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 78.1 19.5%
Butler 22.6% 2.0% 20.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.1 6.8 11.0 0.3 77.4 21.1%
Providence 2.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.8 1.2%
Xavier 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4 1.1%
Georgetown 1.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6 1.0%
Marquette 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
DePaul 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.6%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 0.0 1.8 31.9 48.7 16.4 1.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.6 0.0 3.5 43.1 44.1 8.8 0.5
2nd Round 99.8% 2.5 0.2 8.0 43.3 40.7 7.6 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.2% 1.2 14.8 52.1 29.9 3.2 0.1
Elite Eight 51.4% 0.6 48.6 44.5 6.8 0.2
Final Four 25.4% 0.3 74.6 24.3 1.1 0.0
Final Game 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.3 0.1
Champion 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.8% 68.3% 37.9% 18.9% 9.0% 3.7%
St. John's 99.5% 0.1% 99.4% 78.5% 37.0% 15.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.9%
Villanova 90.1% 4.7% 87.7% 47.4% 12.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Seton Hall 42.8% 15.2% 34.4% 12.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 22.0% 9.9% 16.7% 6.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 22.6% 11.1% 16.5% 5.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 2.2% 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%