Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
229 Tennessee St. 20.8%   10 - 7 7 - 3 -3.8      -1.1 192 -2.8 260 74.9 42 -0.7 176 -2.4 3
231 Tennessee Martin 24.6%   16   12 - 5 7 - 2 -4.0      -4.6 297 +0.6 142 64.5 294 +1.2 143 0.0 1
246 Southeast Missouri St. 11.3%   8 - 10 6 - 4 -4.7      -4.2 283 -0.5 181 72.9 76 -6.1 262 -5.9 6
250 Lindenwood 13.5%   9 - 9 6 - 4 -4.9      -4.3 286 -0.6 185 78.9 10 -4.8 239 -5.7 5
261 SIU Edwardsville 10.8%   10 - 8 6 - 4 -5.5      -6.0 327 +0.5 149 62.6 336 -5.7 251 -6.0 7
279 Arkansas Little Rock 10.0%   7 - 11 6 - 3 -6.8      -3.0 255 -3.8 288 66.6 242 -5.9 256 -3.0 4
299 Morehead St. 6.3%   8 - 10 7 - 3 -8.1      -2.0 225 -6.1 341 64.5 297 -5.3 244 -2.2 2
312 Eastern Illinois 2.3%   6 - 12 5 - 5 -8.9      -9.0 356 +0.1 163 65.5 270 -8.0 294 -7.1 8
322 Southern Indiana 0.3%   3 - 15 2 - 8 -9.6      -8.3 351 -1.3 218 70.1 146 -16.0 355 -16.4 10
338 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   4 - 14 2 - 8 -11.3      -6.6 330 -4.7 309 69.3 166 -12.5 339 -15.0 9
360 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 17 0 - 10 -15.2      -10.0 360 -5.2 323 65.0 282 -20.5 360 -22.1 11


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 279 Arkansas Little Rock 74 229 Tennessee St. 80 72%   
Thu, Jan 29 299 Morehead St. 68 261 SIU Edwardsville 67 52%   
Thu, Jan 29 312 Eastern Illinois 62 231 Tennessee Martin 64 57%   
Thu, Jan 29 250 Lindenwood 75 322 Southern Indiana 73 57%   
Thu, Jan 29 246 Southeast Missouri St. 74 360 Western Illinois 66 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 250 Lindenwood 77 299 Morehead St. 76 51%   
Sat, Jan 31 312 Eastern Illinois 67 246 Southeast Missouri St. 69 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 261 SIU Edwardsville 65 322 Southern Indiana 64 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 279 Arkansas Little Rock 73 338 Tennessee Tech 72 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 231 Tennessee Martin 69 360 Western Illinois 61 78%   
Mon, Feb 2 229 Tennessee St. 83 338 Tennessee Tech 72 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee St. 2.6 29.1 28.4 17.4 11.5 6.9 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.1
Tennessee Martin 2.0 56.5 18.3 10.4 6.4 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.7 5.1 10.2 15.1 16.4 16.1 15.8 13.3 7.2 0.7 0.1
Lindenwood 4.1 11.4 16.4 16.2 15.5 13.4 12.2 9.4 5.0 0.5
SIU Edwardsville 4.4 8.5 12.5 14.7 15.4 15.3 14.2 12.1 6.6 0.7 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4.1 13.8 14.9 14.8 14.5 13.5 12.3 9.7 5.9 0.6 0.1
Morehead St. 4.1 10.9 15.0 15.9 15.5 13.9 13.1 10.4 5.0 0.3 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6.6 0.9 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.4 13.2 20.2 35.4 6.6 1.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 10.6 49.5 31.3 4.0
Tennessee Tech 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 7.8 40.7 43.0 5.8
Western Illinois 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.2 15.4 79.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.8 18.4 25.7 24.1 13.7 3.8
Tennessee Martin 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.4 11.3 18.1 21.8 20.1 13.5 6.0 1.3
Southeast Missouri St. 11 - 8 13 - 14 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.9 17.8 24.2 23.4 15.1 5.8 1.1
Lindenwood 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.5 12.9 19.6 22.6 18.9 11.6 4.3 0.9
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 15 - 13 0.1 0.6 3.1 8.1 16.0 22.4 22.3 15.6 8.4 3.0 0.5
Arkansas Little Rock 12 - 8 13 - 16 0.0 0.8 2.7 7.2 13.6 19.1 20.8 17.5 11.3 5.4 1.4 0.2
Morehead St. 12 - 8 13 - 15 0.2 2.1 6.6 14.5 20.4 22.3 18.1 10.1 4.4 1.1 0.2
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 10 - 18 0.4 2.8 9.1 16.8 22.2 21.0 15.5 8.2 3.2 0.7 0.1
Southern Indiana 6 - 14 7 - 21 1.0 5.0 13.1 20.6 23.2 18.3 11.8 5.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 14 8 - 20 1.3 7.4 17.0 23.8 22.8 15.4 8.3 3.0 0.9 0.2
Western Illinois 3 - 17 4 - 24 6.2 18.0 25.8 23.0 15.9 7.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee St. 29.1% 14.4 9.9 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Martin 56.5% 38.4 12.9 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 5.1% 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 11.4% 4.2 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 8.5% 3.2 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 13.8% 6.4 4.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Morehead St. 10.9% 4.5 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
Southern Indiana
Tennessee Tech
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee St. 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.9 10.6 6.7 79.2 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.6 3.5 13.6 6.9 75.4 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.7 88.7 0.0%
Lindenwood 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.8 9.1 86.5 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.4 8.2 89.2 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.3 8.6 90.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.6 5.7 93.7 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 88.9% 0.9 11.1 88.9
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 20.8% 1.3% 20.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 24.6% 1.0% 24.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.3% 3.1% 10.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 13.5% 3.4% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 10.8% 3.3% 9.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 10.0% 5.1% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.3% 3.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.3% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%