Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #279
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #257
Pace 66.6 #240
Improvement +6.7 #6

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #261 D+ C- D- D- D-
Defense #288 F C- B- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.23 #98 -0.8 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #18 0.56 #359 +0.9 #128
Three Pointers 34% #317 1.05 #125 -2.9 #287
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #258 -2.9 #261
Freethrows 0.26 #310 66% #343 0.17 #336
Second Chance 31.2% #161 0.95 #307 0.30 #224
Turnovers 19.7% #341
Total Offense -3.1 #261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.35 #358 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #356 0.80 #245 +2.7 #14
Three Pointers 48% #32 1.20 #358 -7.7 #360
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #363 -9.4 #363
Freethrows 0.28 #126 72% #146 0.20 #121
Second Chance 35.5% #334 0.97 #77 0.34 #242
Turnovers 18.5% #69
Total Defense -3.7 #288

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #341 2.0% #342
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #212 16.2% #362
Possession Length 18.4 #280 16.9 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.23 #344
Improvement +5.0 #5 +1.8 #81

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 14.4% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 23.0% 40.1% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 96.9% 85.6%
Conference Champion 13.6% 27.3% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% 6.6% 4.5%
First Round7.0% 11.4% 5.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 31% -7  0 - 1 -22 -2 D+ B- F -20 F F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 94 @Marquette L 49 - 89 8% -18  0 - 2 -31 -17 F+ F F -16 F B C
 Sat, Nov 15 294 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 41% +2  1 - 2 +1 -4 C A+ F +5 D- C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 101 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 9% -16  1 - 3 -13 -0 F+ A+ F -14 F+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 275 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 37% -5  1 - 4 -12 -12 F D F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 145 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 16% -1  1 - 5 -5 +3 A- D F -9 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 233 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 29% -29  1 - 6 -39 -27 F F+ F -12 F C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 151 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 34% -8  1 - 7 -14 +1 B+ F C+ -15 F D+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 56 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  1 - 8 -19 -0 D- B C -23 F C C
 Tue, Dec 16 299 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 43% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -19 -17 F D F -1 D- C- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 321 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 49% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 +8 +7 A+ F F +2 D D- C
 Thu, Jan 1 337 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 76% +5  3 - 9 2 - 1 +5 +1 B F+ D+ +5 A+ D A
 Sat, Jan 3 226 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 50% -3  3 - 10 2 - 2 -12 -3 F A- D+ -9 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 264 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 34% -6  4 - 10 3 - 2 +0 +11 C C A -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 247 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 31% +5  5 - 10 4 - 2 +6 +12 B B+ D+ -5 F C A-
 Thu, Jan 15 312 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 69% -4  6 - 10 5 - 2 -1 +6 C+ B- C- -6 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 360 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 85% +6  7 - 10 6 - 2 -11 +10 C D A- -21 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 31% -5  7 - 11 6 - 3 -7 -5 F D- A+ -2 F+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 226 @Tennessee St. L 74 - 80 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 337 @Tennessee Tech W 73 - 72 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 229 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 71 30%
 Thu, Feb 5 247 Lindenwood W 77 - 76 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 264 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 66 56%
 Thu, Feb 12 360 @Western Illinois W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 312 @Eastern Illinois L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 229 Tennessee Martin W 69 - 68 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 Morehead St. W 75 - 71 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 321 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 70%
Totals 13 - 16 12 - 8 -7 -3 D+ C- D- -4 F C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.7 1.4 0.2 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 7.5 4.9 0.6 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 7.2 6.4 0.6 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 4.1 8.6 1.3 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 8.5 3.2 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.4 0.3 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.3 0.9 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.5 13.7 19.4 20.8 17.0 11.0 5.3 1.4 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-4 98.2% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-5 88.2% 4.7    3.0 1.5 0.2
14-6 49.7% 5.5    1.6 2.6 1.1 0.2
13-7 10.6% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 6.2 4.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 28.3% 28.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.4% 28.5% 28.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0
15-5 5.3% 29.7% 29.7% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.7
14-6 11.0% 21.6% 21.6% 15.9 0.3 2.1 8.6
13-7 17.0% 14.5% 14.5% 15.9 0.2 2.3 14.5
12-8 20.8% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6 19.2
11-9 19.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 18.8
10-10 13.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 13.4
9-11 7.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.4
8-12 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 15.9 90.5 0.0%