Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#323
Expected Predictive Rating-14.1#345
Pace68.7#210
Improvement-1.5#288

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#303
First Shot-5.4#324
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks-4.0#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#282
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-0.9#253

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#325
First Shot-1.0#215
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#349
Layups/Dunks-0.9#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#199
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-0.6#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.5% 9.4% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.4% 41.7% 18.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.8% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 8.7% 22.7%
First Four1.8% 2.4% 1.0%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 51 @Wake Forest L 65-81 3%     0 - 1 -2.2 -8.8 +8.5
  Sun, Nov 9 19 @Georgia L 81-120 1%     0 - 2 -20.0 +6.6 -21.7
  Tue, Nov 11 36 @Clemson L 56-83 2%     0 - 3 -11.4 +0.0 -16.0
  Fri, Nov 21 123 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 8%     0 - 4 -9.1 -3.2 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 22 358 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 67%     1 - 4 -11.3 +2.0 -13.3
  Sat, Nov 29 355 @IU Indianapolis L 80-85 56%     1 - 5 -16.1 -11.3 -4.1
  Tue, Dec 2 100 @Murray St. L 52-84 6%     1 - 6 -24.1 -17.2 -8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 260 @Presbyterian L 72-80 25%     1 - 7 -10.5 +2.1 -12.9
  Tue, Dec 16 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 59%    
  Sat, Dec 20 317 @Southern Indiana L 72-75 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 237 @Lindenwood L 71-79 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 233 @SIU Edwardsville L 64-73 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 251 Tennessee Martin L 69-70 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 217 Southeast Missouri St. L 73-76 38%    
  Thu, Jan 15 236 @Tennessee St. L 69-77 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 265 @Tennessee Tech L 71-78 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 354 Western Illinois W 72-65 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 333 Eastern Illinois W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 233 SIU Edwardsville L 67-70 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 237 Lindenwood L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 217 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 251 @Tennessee Martin L 66-73 25%    
  Thu, Feb 12 265 Tennessee Tech L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 236 Tennessee St. L 72-74 41%    
  Thu, Feb 19 333 @Eastern Illinois L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 354 @Western Illinois W 69-68 54%    
  Tue, Feb 24 317 Southern Indiana W 75-72 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 313 @Arkansas Little Rock L 69-73 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.6 4.0 0.8 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.8 1.1 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 5.2 1.5 0.1 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 4.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 13.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.6 8.5 10.9 12.7 12.4 12.2 10.2 8.2 6.2 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 90.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 83.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 65.3% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 34.1% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 20.4% 20.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 26.9% 26.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.1% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.9
14-6 2.2% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.9
13-7 3.8% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 3.3
12-8 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.8
11-9 8.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.3 7.9
10-10 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.1
9-11 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.1
8-12 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.4
7-13 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 10.9% 10.9
5-15 8.5% 8.5
4-16 5.6% 5.6
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%