Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -16.0 #355
Pace 70.1 #151
Improvement +3.2 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #351 F+ D- C D+ C-
Defense #224 C- B- D+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 0.90 #363 -6.8 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.67 #310 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 44% #123 0.89 #326 -1.1 #222
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #362 -8.6 #362
Freethrows 0.30 #194 65% #359 0.19 #270
Second Chance 25.8% #306 0.83 #361 0.22 #354
Turnovers 16.7% #196
Total Offense -8.2 #351

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #2 1.18 #208 -7.2 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #232 0.69 #79 +1.3 #93
Three Pointers 31% #360 1.09 #284 +3.8 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #250 -2.1 #250
Freethrows 0.30 #194 71% #126 0.22 #178
Second Chance 30.7% #184 0.88 #20 0.27 #64
Turnovers 14.4% #301
Total Defense -1.4 #224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #242 2.1% #348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.1% #362 2.0% #219
Possession Length 18.3 #272 15.9 #16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #315 0.24 #346
Improvement +1.5 #104 +1.7 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 4.1% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 4.7% 14.2%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 46 - 157 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 58 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0 - 1 -17 -14 F F B- -2 C A- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 353 VMI L 74 - 78 74% +3  0 - 2 -20 -16 F F B -4 C- B- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 287 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 30% -9  0 - 3 -19 -15 F F+ D- -1 B- D A-
 Thu, Nov 20 240 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 31% -8  0 - 4 -10 +3 C+ F B+ -13 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 22 136 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 15% -11  0 - 5 -10 -2 C F C+ -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 169 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 14% +6  1 - 5 +10 -6 D B- F +16 A+ C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 272 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 27% -13  1 - 6 -17 -5 D+ F A- -12 F D+ F+
 Sun, Dec 7 195 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 17% -11  1 - 7 -21 -13 F+ F C+ -10 D- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 51% -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -25 -14 F D+ B- -12 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 299 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 56% +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -14 F F F -1 B A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 264 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 25% -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -7 -13 F D+ F +6 B+ D A
 Sat, Jan 3 247 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 23% -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -5 +6 B- D D -11 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 43% -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -16 +1 D B- F+ -17 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 229 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 40% +17  1 - 13 0 - 6 -24 -11 F D+ F -15 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 337 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 45% -0  2 - 13 1 - 6 +9 -3 F F+ A+ +12 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 226 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 20% -4  2 - 14 1 - 7 -7 -5 F+ D- D+ -3 D+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 312 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 59% +3  2 - 15 1 - 8 -20 -25 F D- F +5 A- B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 360 Western Illinois W 96 - 64 79% +22  3 - 15 2 - 8 +14 +12 B D D +0 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 247 Lindenwood L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 264 SIU Edwardsville L 64 - 65 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 229 @Tennessee Martin L 62 - 71 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 76 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 226 Tennessee St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 337 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 68 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 360 @Western Illinois W 69 - 66 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 312 @Eastern Illinois L 63 - 67 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 299 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67 - 73 30%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -10 -8 F+ D- C -1 C- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.3 0.2 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 9.4 16.3 14.6 5.9 0.7 0.0 49.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 9.5 10.7 5.6 1.4 0.1 30.7 10th
11th 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 1.0 5.0 13.1 20.4 22.5 18.8 11.7 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 1.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 1.6
9-11 5.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.3
8-12 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-13 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
6-14 22.5% 22.5
5-15 20.4% 20.4
4-16 13.1% 13.1
3-17 5.0% 5.0
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%