Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#317
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#341
Pace75.3#43
Improvement+0.2#175

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#338
First Shot-0.9#197
After Offensive Rebound-5.7#365
Layup/Dunks-5.2#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.5#73

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#258
First Shot-6.4#353
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#7
Layups/Dunks-9.4#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows-2.1#308
Improvement-1.3#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 7.9% 11.3% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 35.7% 45.5% 21.0%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 7.4% 20.4%
First Four2.1% 2.7% 1.3%
First Round1.7% 2.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 49 - 1210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 54 @Butler L 58-88 3%     0 - 1 -17.1 -14.4 -0.7
  Fri, Nov 7 330 VMI L 74-78 65%     0 - 2 -17.3 -14.4 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 12 278 @South Dakota L 74-89 28%     0 - 3 -18.2 -14.8 -0.9
  Thu, Nov 20 189 Incarnate Word L 81-87 24%     0 - 4 -7.8 +1.1 -8.7
  Sat, Nov 22 190 Illinois-Chicago L 73-84 24%     0 - 5 -12.9 -5.0 -7.3
  Wed, Nov 26 212 @Valparaiso W 64-56 20%     1 - 5 +7.8 -7.3 +15.0
  Wed, Dec 3 242 @Western Michigan L 74-88 23%     1 - 6 -15.7 -2.8 -12.4
  Sun, Dec 7 187 @Indiana St. L 55-77 16%     1 - 7 -20.7 -11.2 -11.0
  Thu, Dec 18 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Dec 20 323 Morehead St. W 75-72 63%    
  Thu, Jan 1 233 @SIU Edwardsville L 66-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 237 @Lindenwood L 73-81 22%    
  Thu, Jan 8 217 Southeast Missouri St. L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 Tennessee Martin L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 265 @Tennessee Tech L 73-80 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 236 @Tennessee St. L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 333 Eastern Illinois W 72-68 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 354 Western Illinois W 74-67 75%    
  Thu, Jan 29 237 Lindenwood L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 233 SIU Edwardsville L 69-71 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 251 @Tennessee Martin L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Feb 7 217 @Southeast Missouri St. L 72-81 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 236 Tennessee St. L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 265 Tennessee Tech L 76-77 48%    
  Thu, Feb 19 354 @Western Illinois W 71-70 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 333 @Eastern Illinois L 69-71 44%    
  Tue, Feb 24 323 @Morehead St. L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 313 @Arkansas Little Rock L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.6 4.1 0.8 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.7 1.3 0.1 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 4.9 5.5 1.6 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.1 3.3 1.2 0.1 11.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 7.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.7 7.8 9.8 12.2 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.8 6.6 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 98.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 89.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 66.6% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 36.4% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 10.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 53.8% 53.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 20.5% 20.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 28.5% 28.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.5
15-5 1.4% 24.2% 24.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.0
14-6 2.6% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.2
13-7 4.3% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 3.8
12-8 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.5 6.1
11-9 8.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.5
10-10 11.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.8
9-11 12.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.1
8-12 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 9.8% 9.8
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%