Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#217
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#241
Pace74.7#53
Improvement-0.7#226

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#241
First Shot-5.1#317
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#51
Layup/Dunks+1.3#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#334
Freethrows-2.9#323
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#186
First Shot-1.0#214
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#163
Layups/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#33
Freethrows-4.9#360
Improvement-0.2#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 22.8% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 64.2% 78.0% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 91.1% 74.3%
Conference Champion 21.6% 31.3% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 4.0%
First Round16.1% 20.8% 12.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @Saint Louis L 67-92 6%     0 - 1 -10.4 -4.9 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 7 50 @Missouri L 84-89 6%     0 - 2 +8.8 +7.1 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 15 136 St. Thomas L 72-84 43%     0 - 3 -13.4 -7.9 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -10.9 +7.5 -19.1
  Tue, Nov 25 249 Cal Poly W 84-68 57%     1 - 4 +10.9 +3.1 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 270 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 48%     1 - 5 -9.8 -1.0 -8.8
  Sat, Nov 29 142 Lipscomb L 77-88 44%     1 - 6 -12.9 -5.5 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 6 225 @Chattanooga W 74-70 40%     2 - 6 +3.3 +2.9 +0.6
  Thu, Dec 18 265 @Tennessee Tech L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Dec 20 236 @Tennessee St. L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Jan 1 333 Eastern Illinois W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 354 Western Illinois W 77-64 89%    
  Thu, Jan 8 317 @Southern Indiana W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 323 @Morehead St. W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 237 Lindenwood W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 233 SIU Edwardsville W 73-69 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 251 Tennessee Martin W 74-69 67%    
  Thu, Jan 22 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 77-68 78%    
  Thu, Jan 29 354 @Western Illinois W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 333 @Eastern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 323 Morehead St. W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 317 Southern Indiana W 81-72 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 233 @SIU Edwardsville L 70-72 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 237 @Lindenwood L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 251 @Tennessee Martin L 71-72 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 313 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74-71 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 265 Tennessee Tech W 79-74 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 6.0 5.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.7 6.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.7 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.1 1.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.8 7.2 10.0 12.2 13.6 13.7 12.4 9.4 6.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 97.7% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 87.1% 5.4    4.3 1.1 0.1
15-5 63.5% 6.0    3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 32.8% 4.1    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.9% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.7 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 52.3% 52.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.2% 53.5% 53.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-3 3.2% 46.6% 46.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.7
16-4 6.2% 42.3% 42.3% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.4 3.6
15-5 9.4% 35.2% 35.2% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 6.1
14-6 12.4% 27.4% 27.4% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.0 9.0
13-7 13.7% 20.4% 20.4% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.1 10.9
12-8 13.6% 12.9% 12.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 11.8
11-9 12.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.1 0.9 11.2
10-10 10.0% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.5
9-11 7.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 7.0
8-12 4.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-13 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 1.7% 1.7
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 6.3 9.4 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 14.7 35.3 38.2 8.8 2.9