SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#233
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Pace65.4#286
Improvement-1.6#294

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-2.4#242
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#303
Layup/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#309
Freethrows-0.1#191
Improvement+0.4#137

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#158
First Shot+3.0#76
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#335
Layups/Dunks+8.4#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#266
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement-2.1#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 19.5% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 78.7% 85.8% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 88.9% 70.9%
Conference Champion 24.9% 30.8% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four3.8% 4.0% 3.5%
First Round15.0% 17.6% 10.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 917 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 286 @Texas San Antonio W 77-60 49%     1 - 0 +13.1 +1.6 +10.9
  Mon, Nov 10 187 Indiana St. L 55-64 53%     1 - 1 -13.7 -18.9 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 14 135 @Drake W 61-59 20%     2 - 1 +6.7 -1.8 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 17 40 @Wisconsin L 69-94 5%     2 - 2 -10.1 +6.7 -18.2
  Fri, Nov 21 324 @Air Force L 63-77 60%     2 - 3 -20.7 -9.6 -11.3
  Sun, Nov 23 264 Alabama St. W 83-68 56%     3 - 3 +9.4 +10.0 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 344 @North Florida W 72-63 67%     4 - 3 +0.4 -1.8 +2.9
  Sat, Dec 6 242 Western Michigan L 73-83 64%     4 - 4 -17.7 -2.3 -15.7
  Thu, Dec 18 333 @Eastern Illinois W 68-64 63%    
  Mon, Dec 22 354 @Western Illinois W 69-62 74%    
  Thu, Jan 1 317 Southern Indiana W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 323 Morehead St. W 73-64 79%    
  Tue, Jan 6 237 Lindenwood W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 8 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 71-63 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 251 @Tennessee Martin L 65-67 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 236 Tennessee St. W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 265 Tennessee Tech W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 323 @Morehead St. W 70-67 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 317 @Southern Indiana W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Feb 3 237 @Lindenwood L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 313 @Arkansas Little Rock W 68-66 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 251 Tennessee Martin W 68-64 65%    
  Thu, Feb 19 265 @Tennessee Tech L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 236 @Tennessee St. L 67-70 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 354 Western Illinois W 72-59 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 333 Eastern Illinois W 71-61 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 4.1 6.2 5.9 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 24.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.2 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.3 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.5 1.2 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.8 1.0 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.6 7.1 9.4 11.3 13.2 13.0 12.1 9.5 6.7 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 99.7% 2.1    2.1 0.0
17-3 97.0% 4.1    3.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 87.9% 5.9    4.7 1.2 0.1
15-5 65.9% 6.2    3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 34.1% 4.1    1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 16.7 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 75.6% 75.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.7% 57.4% 57.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
18-2 2.1% 47.8% 47.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1
17-3 4.2% 41.4% 41.4% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 2.5
16-4 6.7% 37.1% 37.1% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 4.2
15-5 9.5% 32.6% 32.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.6 6.4
14-6 12.1% 25.1% 25.1% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.1 9.1
13-7 13.0% 17.2% 17.2% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.9 10.8
12-8 13.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 11.8
11-9 11.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.1 0.8 10.5
10-10 9.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.1
9-11 7.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 6.9
8-12 4.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.5
7-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.6 9.2 83.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 5.9 67.6 26.5