SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #248
Pace 62.6 #334
Improvement +0.7 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 D C- C- D+ F+
Defense #152 B C- C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #327 1.02 #329 -5.8 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.70 #259 +3.3 #37
Three Pointers 36% #289 1.01 #193 -2.7 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #323 -5.2 #324
Freethrows 0.28 #268 68% #312 0.19 #297
Second Chance 28.9% #231 1.03 #211 0.30 #223
Turnovers 17.5% #249
Total Offense -6.0 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.04 #48 +3.8 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.82 #286 -0.6 #230
Three Pointers 44% #99 0.91 #50 +1.0 #143
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #56 +4.2 #55
Freethrows 0.33 #276 74% #251 0.24 #287
Second Chance 34.2% #315 1.01 #126 0.35 #249
Turnovers 15.1% #261
Total Defense +0.5 #152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #350 -0.4% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #293 -7.8% #50
Possession Length 19.1 #337 17.7 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.20 #275
Improvement +0.6 #144 +0.1 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 13.7% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 80.5% 90.5% 71.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 95.1% 80.5%
Conference Champion 8.2% 13.4% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 3.8% 3.0%
First Round9.2% 11.9% 6.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 415 - 1016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 343 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 60 62% +3  1 - 0 +8 -2 D- B+ F +10 A A- F
 Mon, Nov 10 195 Indiana St. L 55 - 64 49% -6  1 - 1 -14 -21 F F F +7 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 148 @Drake W 61 - 59 19% +5  2 - 1 +6 -0 C D C+ +6 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 17 38 @Wisconsin L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 2 -9 +6 C- A+ C- -16 D+ C F
 Fri, Nov 21 347 @Air Force L 63 - 77 63% -8  2 - 3 -23 -10 F+ D D- -13 B+ F F
 Sun, Nov 23 318 Alabama St. W 83 - 68 65% +2  3 - 3 +6 +10 C- C- A+ -3 A- C- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 348 @North Florida W 72 - 63 64% +1  4 - 3 -0 -6 D- D D+ +6 A C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 272 Western Michigan L 73 - 83 64% -8  4 - 4 -19 -4 D D- A+ -15 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 312 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 76 OT 51% -0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -1 B F D+ -9 F D- B
 Mon, Dec 22 360 @Western Illinois W 66 - 61 74% -3  5 - 5 1 - 1 -7 -11 F A+ F +4 C- B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 321 Southern Indiana W 59 - 55 75% +6  6 - 5 2 - 1 -9 -13 F B+ F +5 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 299 Morehead St. L 72 - 73 70% +2  6 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -1 C- C- C -11 F B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 247 Lindenwood W 66 - 62 59% +2  7 - 6 3 - 2 -4 -9 F D+ F+ +5 A+ D- C
 Thu, Jan 8 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 66% +6  7 - 7 3 - 3 -13 +0 D- A- F -13 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 229 @Tennessee Martin L 59 - 65 33% +9  7 - 8 3 - 4 -7 -6 F+ D- A+ -2 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 55 35% +16  8 - 8 4 - 4 +11 +3 C+ C C- +9 A- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 226 Tennessee St. W 74 - 66 55% +2  9 - 8 5 - 4 +1 +5 B C- D- -3 A D F
 Sat, Jan 24 337 Tennessee Tech W 62 - 58 80% +9  10 - 8 6 - 4 -10 -4 F C- B- -5 B+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 299 @Morehead St. L 67 - 68 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 321 @Southern Indiana W 65 - 64 54%
 Tue, Feb 3 247 @Lindenwood L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 68 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 69 - 67 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 229 Tennessee Martin W 64 - 62 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 337 @Tennessee Tech W 68 - 65 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 226 @Tennessee St. L 69 - 74 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 360 Western Illinois W 70 - 57 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 312 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 59 72%
Totals 15 - 13 11 - 9 -6 -6 D C- C- +1 B C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.4 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.2 4.2 0.4 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 7.0 6.6 0.5 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 9.5 1.4 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 9.2 3.6 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.5 6.2 0.3 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.2 1.2 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.1 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.7 15.7 21.5 21.9 16.7 8.6 2.7 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.1
15-5 83.7% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1
14-6 46.0% 4.0    1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.7% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 2.9 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 47.2% 47.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
15-5 2.7% 32.1% 32.1% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.9
14-6 8.6% 28.2% 28.2% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.7 6.2
13-7 16.7% 19.2% 19.2% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.6 13.5
12-8 21.9% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.2 2.0 19.7
11-9 21.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 1.0 20.5
10-10 15.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.5 15.1
9-11 8.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
8-12 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.7 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.1 16.7 52.4 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%