Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.0 #229
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #147
Pace 64.6 #295
Improvement -1.9 #274

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #296 D D+ C F+ C-
Defense #142 C D C C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 0.99 #343 -7.9 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.84 #65 +0.1 #170
Three Pointers 52% #16 0.91 #315 +2.8 #94
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #318 -5.0 #319
Freethrows 0.23 #347 65% #354 0.15 #361
Second Chance 23.0% #346 1.13 #78 0.26 #300
Turnovers 16.3% #168
Total Offense -4.7 #296

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #341 1.32 #343 +2.3 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.72 #121 -0.5 #216
Three Pointers 47% #37 0.96 #96 -1.6 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #174 +0.3 #174
Freethrows 0.34 #294 69% #51 0.23 #257
Second Chance 41.1% #364 0.92 #37 0.38 #314
Turnovers 16.1% #202
Total Defense +0.7 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #248 -1.7% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #321 1.2% #206
Possession Length 20.9 #364 18.6 #336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #356 0.23 #335
Improvement -2.5 #313 +0.6 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 27.0% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 55.7% 66.7% 41.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round23.5% 26.3% 19.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 418 - 620 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 125 @UNLV W 86 - 81 19% -18  1 - 0 +10 +4 F C C +5 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 126 @Bradley W 78 - 67 20% -9  2 - 0 +16 +4 A+ C- F +12 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 106 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 15% -19  2 - 1 -7 -2 B C- F -3 D+ A F
 Sat, Nov 22 345 Prairie View W 69 - 68 77% -6  3 - 1 -11 -8 F+ F F -3 B C- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 262 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 55% -17  3 - 2 -15 +1 B- F C+ -19 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 230 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 62% -7  4 - 2 +10 +2 C F D- +9 A C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 318 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 79% -12  5 - 2 -2 -1 F D- F -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 145 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 22% -15  5 - 3 -25 -14 F F F -11 F D B
 Thu, Dec 18 226 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 38% -15  5 - 4 0 - 1 -8 -4 F F+ F -4 D- B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 337 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 66% -7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +19 A- F B- -1 F+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 1 360 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 90% -15  7 - 4 2 - 1 -11 -6 F F B- -4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 312 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 77% -8  8 - 4 3 - 1 -8 -7 F+ C F -1 C+ A- C
 Thu, Jan 8 299 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 54% -15  9 - 4 4 - 1 +3 +9 D C F -5 D- D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 321 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 60% -17  10 - 4 5 - 1 +10 +9 C+ F+ F +3 A- F+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 264 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 67% -9  11 - 4 6 - 1 -3 -2 F D- F +0 B- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 247 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 64% +4  12 - 4 7 - 1 +6 -7 D+ C- F +13 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 41% -20  12 - 5 7 - 2 -18 -17 F D- F -2 C+ D B
 Thu, Jan 29 312 @Eastern Illinois W 64 - 62 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 360 @Western Illinois W 69 - 61 78%
 Tue, Feb 3 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 71 - 65 70%
 Thu, Feb 5 321 Southern Indiana W 71 - 62 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 299 Morehead St. W 72 - 65 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 247 @Lindenwood L 71 - 73 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 264 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 64 44%
 Tue, Feb 17 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 67 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 69 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 337 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 226 Tennessee St. W 74 - 71 60%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 -4 -5 D D+ C +1 C D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.0 13.8 18.7 13.4 5.5 1.3 55.7 1st
2nd 1.2 8.7 7.7 1.3 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 4.0 5.6 0.6 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.3 0.9 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 1.6 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.7 11.2 18.2 22.1 20.0 13.4 5.5 1.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-3 100.0% 5.5    5.5 0.0
16-4 99.9% 13.4    12.9 0.5
15-5 93.4% 18.7    13.3 5.0 0.4
14-6 62.3% 13.8    4.4 6.5 2.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 16.7% 3.0    0.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 37.5 12.8 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.3% 44.4% 44.4% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7
17-3 5.5% 42.8% 42.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 3.2
16-4 13.4% 36.8% 36.8% 14.9 0.1 1.1 3.2 0.5 8.5
15-5 20.0% 32.4% 32.4% 15.2 0.0 0.6 4.1 1.8 13.5
14-6 22.1% 25.3% 25.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 2.9 2.5 16.5
13-7 18.2% 15.5% 15.5% 15.6 0.0 1.1 1.7 15.3
12-8 11.2% 9.4% 9.4% 15.7 0.3 0.8 10.2
11-9 5.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.4
10-10 2.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
9-11 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 15.1 75.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.3 11.2 53.4 34.5 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%