Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 #226
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #177
Pace 74.9 #42
Improvement +0.6 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 D+ C C D+ D
Defense #262 D- C C+ F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.14 #188 +0.8 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #26 0.71 #257 +2.9 #54
Three Pointers 29% #356 0.93 #287 -7.2 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #285 -3.5 #284
Freethrows 0.26 #314 75% #97 0.19 #283
Second Chance 29.6% #217 1.06 #148 0.32 #182
Turnovers 16.1% #158
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #23 1.24 #285 -5.9 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #338 0.89 #347 +1.2 #100
Three Pointers 40% #217 1.08 #266 -0.6 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.3 #329
Freethrows 0.36 #328 77% #346 0.28 #348
Second Chance 31.9% #246 1.03 #163 0.33 #218
Turnovers 17.3% #117
Total Defense -2.8 #262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #313 2.5% #357
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #258 7.7% #315
Possession Length 16.7 #111 16.5 #49
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #114 0.23 #343
Improvement +4.1 #15 -3.5 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 22.7% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 97.5% 98.6% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.6% 95.6%
Conference Champion 29.7% 32.8% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round20.7% 22.0% 14.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 717 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 75 @Belmont L 79 - 87 10% -6  0 - 1 +3 -1 D- C- B- +4 B- A B-
 Sun, Nov 16 166 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 27% -9  0 - 2 -11 +4 C+ F C- -14 F D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 20 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0 - 3 -9 -9 D- D+ F +3 B D+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 203 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 35% -3  1 - 3 +2 -1 F+ A- F +3 F B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 257 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 44% +8  2 - 3 +4 +1 F C+ B- +4 A- D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 298 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 54% -9  2 - 4 -32 -17 F C F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 125 @UNLV W 63 - 60 20% -2  3 - 4 +8 -9 D- B+ F +17 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 229 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 62% +15  4 - 4 1 - 0 -0 +4 B- D- C+ -4 A- B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 65% -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -17 +0 D- F A -16 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 337 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 67% +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +12 C- A+ C -8 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 50% +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +4 F B+ A- -3 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 360 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 79% +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +10 +11 C+ A D+ -2 C+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 312 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 58% -8  7 - 6 4 - 2 -10 +0 D+ F C -10 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 299 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 76% +5  8 - 6 5 - 2 -6 +14 A+ B- C -21 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 321 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 80% +4  9 - 6 6 - 2 -7 +0 C- D+ A+ -6 F+ C- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 264 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 45% -2  9 - 7 6 - 3 -11 +2 F+ C+ A -14 F C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 247 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 42% +5  10 - 7 7 - 3 +8 +14 A+ C D -7 F B B-
 Tue, Jan 27 337 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 72 84%
 Thu, Jan 29 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 80 - 74 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 312 Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 360 Western Illinois W 80 - 66 91%
 Thu, Feb 12 321 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 74 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 299 @Morehead St. W 78 - 77 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 247 Lindenwood W 84 - 80 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 264 SIU Edwardsville W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 40%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -4 -1 D+ C C -3 D- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.8 11.6 11.5 3.8 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 12.2 11.0 2.4 0.1 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 7.3 9.1 1.3 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 7.2 1.4 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 2.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.2 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 9.7 18.7 25.6 23.8 13.9 3.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 97.7% 3.8    3.5 0.3
15-5 82.7% 11.5    7.6 3.6 0.3
14-6 48.6% 11.6    3.6 5.3 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-7 11.0% 2.8    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 14.9 9.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.9% 42.0% 42.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2
15-5 13.9% 36.2% 36.2% 14.8 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.5 8.9
14-6 23.8% 29.8% 29.8% 15.2 0.0 0.6 4.3 2.2 16.7
13-7 25.6% 18.6% 18.6% 15.5 0.1 2.3 2.4 20.9
12-8 18.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 16.6
11-9 9.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.0
10-10 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.3
9-11 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-12 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 15.1 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.8 2.8 29.3 53.7 13.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%