Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.3 183
Results Rating -0.4 168
Consistency 0.17 297
Pace 74.5 34
Improvement +7.5 7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 D+ C+ C C- D-
Defense C- 217 D C B D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 C 58% 173 -0.1 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 63% 9 C- 37% 227 +3.6 32
Three Pointers 30% 352 C- 32% 248 -6.1 347
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 332 C- -1.2 220
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 255
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 109 C 1.02 194 C+ 0.33 131
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 271
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 87
Turnovers C 16.8% 190
Freethrows D 0.27 294 B 76% 47 C- 0.20 238
Total Offense C +0.0 162

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 170 C+ 10.0% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 307 B+ 2.0% 12
Three Pointers F 72% 353 C 0.9% 189
Total D- 45% 346 B- 4.7% 80


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 C- 59% 206 +3.7 304
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 343 F+ 44% 347 -1.3 80
Three Pointers 41% 168 D 36% 301 +1.7 275
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 351 D+ +2.8 291
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 319
Second Chance C 30.2% 178 C- 1.06 241 C 0.32 216
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 27
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 236
Turnovers B 18.9% 59
Freethrows D 0.36 323 D+ 74% 290 D- 0.26 334
Total Defense C- -1.3 217

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 185 C- 9.4% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 197 C+ 6.1% 96
Three Pointers C 83% 159 A- 2.1% 23
Total C 56% 195 C 5.9% 150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 105 16.7 61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 73 0.22 328
Consistency 0.11 88 0.16 352
Improvement +5.4 8 +2.1 97

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Auto Bid
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 183 182 182
Results Rating Rank 167 166 166
Conference Record 15 - 5 15 - 5 15 - 5
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 16 15 14
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 1st Round 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 14.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% n/a n/a
First Round99% n/a n/a
Second Round1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 33 - 14 - 3
Quad 416 - 620 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 78 @Belmont L 79 - 87 13% -6  2% 0 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 F C- B- A +9 B- A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 164 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 34% -9  0% 0 - 2 D -10 C +2 B F C- F -10 F F D
 Thu, Nov 20 16 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 3% -22  0% 0 - 3 D+ -8 F -11 D- D+ F B+ +7 B D+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 236 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 51% -3  17% 1 - 3 C +0 D -4 D- A- F B +5 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 30 295 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 64% +8  99% 2 - 3 C +1 D -5 F B- C+ B+ +6 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 3 311 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 68% -9  0% 2 - 4 F -33 F -23 F C F F -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 105 @UNLV W 63 - 60 20% -2  15% 3 - 4 B +11 F -12 F+ A F A+ +22 A+ A A+
 Thu, Dec 18 232 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 72% -1  28% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +3 B- D+ A+ C- -3 B D- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 231 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 72% -10  5% 4 - 5 1 - 1 F+ -16 C- -1 D+ F+ A- F -15 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 314 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 69% +9  83% 5 - 5 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 C- A+ D+ D+ -4 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 304 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 67% +3  88% 6 - 5 3 - 1 C -1 C +1 F A- B+ C- -2 C F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 364 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 91% +14  95% 7 - 5 4 - 1 B- +6 B- +5 C A D+ C -0 B D D
 Sat, Jan 10 322 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 72% -8  0% 7 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 D+ -4 D- F C+ D- -7 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 285 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 80% +5  94% 8 - 6 5 - 2 D+ -5 A +12 A+ B C F -18 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 337 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 90% +4  78% 9 - 6 6 - 2 D -9 D -5 D+ F+ A+ D+ -5 F C+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 55% -2  36% 9 - 7 6 - 3 D -11 C +1 F B- A F -12 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 58% +5  85% 10 - 7 7 - 3 B- +7 A +12 A+ C+ D D -6 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 29 304 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 84% -2  30% 11 - 7 8 - 3 C- -5 F -10 D- C D- B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 2 314 Tennessee Tech L 85 - 90 85% -10  3% 11 - 8 8 - 4 F+ -17 B- +5 D+ A B- F -22 F C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 322 Eastern Illinois W 77 - 68 87% +3  81% 12 - 8 9 - 4 C- -4 C- -1 D+ F A+ D+ -3 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 364 Western Illinois W 83 - 56 96% +21  99% 13 - 8 10 - 4 C+ +5 C +0 C+ F B B +5 B A- B-
 Thu, Feb 12 337 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 71 78% -3  19% 14 - 8 11 - 4 D+ -7 C -0 F A+ F D- -7 F D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 285 @Morehead St. L 86 - 94 61% -6  14% 14 - 9 11 - 5 D- -12 B +7 F B A F -20 F F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 272 Lindenwood W 89 - 80 78% -2  40% 15 - 9 12 - 5 C -0 C +1 F A+ B C- -3 F C+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 263 SIU Edwardsville W 80 - 53 76% +16  93% 16 - 9 13 - 5 A +18 A +12 A+ A- D- A +9 C B+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 231 @Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 71 50% -1  46% 17 - 9 14 - 5 B- +7 C+ +2 F+ D+ B B +4 B C C-
 Sat, Feb 28 232 @Tennessee Martin W 67 - 42 50% +17  90% 18 - 9 15 - 5 A+ +24 C- -1 C- B- D A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Mar 6 232 Tennessee Martin W 68 - 55 62% +9  94% 19 - 9 B +9 B- +5 A B- F B+ +6 C+ A- B-
 Sat, Mar 7 285 Morehead St. W 93 - 67 72% +16  98% 20 - 9 A +19 A +12 A+ B- C B+ +7 A A- D-
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 5 -1 C +0 A C- D- C- -1 C- B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C- C- C- 38% 63% 30% D- D+ C+ C C+ C D B C- C- C- F+ D D+ 44% 15% 41% D- D C C- C B D D+ D-
1.09 58% 37% 32% -1 -1 0.97 32% 1.0 .33 17% .27 76% .20 1.10 59% 44% 36% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.1 .32 19% .36 74% .20
Nov
8		 Belmont D F F C- F 32% 30% 38% D- F B F C- B- C+ A+ B A F A+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 37% F B- B A+ A+ B+ F B- F
0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25 1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34
Nov
16		 Western Kentucky C F A A+ B+ 30% 28% 42% D B C F F C- A+ B A+ F F F A+ D- 68% 8% 25% F F D+ F F D F B- F
1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40 1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34
Nov
20		 Tennessee F A+ F F D- 24% 29% 47% D D- B+ F D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ C+ B+ 46% 12% 42% F+ B A+ F D+ A F F F
0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33 1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50
Nov
25		 UNC Asheville D D+ C+ F D- 49% 26% 25% D+ D- B+ B+ A- F D+ A C B D+ F F F 35% 43% 22% B- F C+ A- B A+ F B F
1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22 0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36
Nov
30		 Chattanooga D F F+ D F 43% 26% 30% D+ F D- A+ B- C+ F A+ C- B+ B+ A+ A- A+ 35% 4% 62% F A- B F D F B- F C-
1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24 0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21
Dec
3		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 33% 33% 35% F F A+ F C F B+ F D F D F F F 42% 19% 40% F+ F F B F A+ F C- F
0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22 1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40
Dec
13		 UNLV F C A+ F F+ 46% 28% 26% C- F+ B+ B+ A F F F F A+ C+ C A+ A+ 51% 12% 37% F A+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09 0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36
Dec
18		 Tennessee Martin C+ B- A- C B+ 41% 43% 17% F B- F+ A D+ A+ D+ A C C- A F A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F+ B D+ D- D- B- F F+ F
1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23 1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38
Dec
20		 Southeast Missouri St. C- B F A- C- 40% 36% 25% F D+ D F F+ A- A+ D+ A+ F D- F F F 44% 13% 42% D- F D- F F A+ F F F
1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39 1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38
Dec
30		 Tennessee Tech B+ B- F+ A+ C+ 25% 37% 39% F C- A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F D+ F D+ D- F 42% 20% 38% D F B- A- B+ B B+ A A-
1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10 1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16
Jan
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ F F F 49% 25% 26% D+ F C A+ A- B+ B A+ A- C- C A C+ B- 42% 27% 31% F+ C D F F C+ F F+ F
1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27 1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35
Jan
8		 Western Illinois B- B- D- C+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C- A+ A D+ A- F B- C C+ A+ A+ A+ 71% 4% 25% F B D- C D D F F F
1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25 0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41
Jan
10		 Eastern Illinois D+ F+ A+ F D 34% 25% 42% F+ D- D- F F C+ A- D- B D- B A- F F 47% 21% 32% F F D- D F+ D A F B+
1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28 1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16
Jan
15		 Morehead St. A A- A- A+ A+ 39% 34% 27% F A+ D A+ B C A- D B F A- F F F+ 40% 26% 33% C- F+ C- C C- F F F F
1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27 1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42
Jan
17		 Southern Indiana D B- F D- D+ 52% 20% 29% C+ D+ F C+ F+ A+ F D+ F D+ B+ F D- F 35% 17% 48% D F D A- C+ B A+ C- A+
1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16 0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11
Jan
22		 SIU Edwardsville C C- F F F 43% 24% 33% B- F A+ F+ B- A A- A+ A+ F F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% D- F F A+ B- B F C- F
1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32 1.17 76% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
24		 Lindenwood A B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 23% 21% C+ A+ C- B C+ D F C- F D C+ F F F 38% 28% 34% A- F A F B- B- D- F F
1.23 63% 64% 46% +12 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11 1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32
Jan
29		 Arkansas Little Rock F C+ D D+ D- 43% 23% 34% D+ D- F+ A+ C D- A+ F B+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% C A+ D+ F F C+ A- F C+
1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25 0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14
Feb
2		 Tennessee Tech B- C+ B+ F+ D+ 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ A+ F+ A B- C C C F A+ D- F F 35% 15% 50% D F C+ C+ C+ D+ F C F
1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22 1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Eastern Illinois C- A+ F F C- 43% 27% 29% D- D+ F D F A+ A+ C A+ D+ C- C- D- F 47% 18% 36% F F B F F A+ C- A C+
1.12 77% 29% 20% -1 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34 0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Western Illinois C A+ D+ F B 45% 29% 26% F+ C+ C- F F B F A+ D- B B D- A+ B 35% 24% 41% D+ B D+ A+ A- B- F F F
1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18 0.82 47% 42% 20% -12 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29
Feb
12		 Southern Indiana C F F A+ F 37% 42% 21% F F A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D F C- F 49% 23% 28% D- F F A D+ C+ F A+ F
1.10 38% 28% 44% -9 -3 0.79 46% 1.1 .51 21% .54 86% .46 1.07 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 18% .63 44% .28
Feb
14		 Morehead St. B F F A F+ 31% 33% 35% F F B- B B A A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 54% 11% 35% F F F F F B+ F D- F
1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51 1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40
Feb
19		 Lindenwood C C- D+ F F+ 38% 38% 25% F F A A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C- C D+ F F 49% 22% 29% C- F B- C- C+ A F D- F
1.12 57% 33% 21% -7 -2 0.84 41% 1.4 .57 15% .46 71% .33 1.01 56% 36% 40% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 24% .41 72% .30
Feb
21		 SIU Edwardsville A A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ B B+ A- D- F+ B+ D A D B+ B C+ 28% 22% 50% D+ C A+ F+ B+ A B- A+ A+
1.26 65% 60% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 1.1 .42 19% .25 77% .19 0.83 62% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 18% 1.2 .21 24% .23 27% .06
Feb
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ F A D- D- 43% 35% 22% F+ F+ B+ F D+ B A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ F A 54% 10% 36% F B B F C C- F D+ F
1.07 40% 50% 30% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.8 .28 15% .67 86% .57 0.96 37% 20% 39% -11 +2 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 16% .45 71% .32
Feb
28		 Tennessee Martin C- A- B D+ B- 20% 48% 32% F C- C+ B- B- D F A+ F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 29% 24% 48% B A+ A+ B A+ A+ B+ F+ B-
1.02 70% 42% 31% +3 -5 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 21% .19 80% .15 0.64 42% 40% 20% -14 -1 0.71 16% 0.8 .13 29% .23 73% .17
Mar
6		 Tennessee Martin B- A- A+ A+ A+ 22% 36% 42% F A A+ F+ B- F F A+ F B+ F A- A- C 29% 22% 49% B- C+ C+ A A- B- A+ D- A+
1.11 70% 50% 42% +12 -3 1.20 45% 0.8 .34 25% .17 88% .15 0.90 69% 30% 27% -3 -1 0.93 33% 0.7 .22 23% .15 71% .11
Mar
7		 Morehead St. A B F A+ A+ 30% 28% 42% F A+ B- C+ B- C F A+ D- B+ A+ A C+ A 32% 32% 36% B+ A A+ F A- D- F+ F F
1.33 65% 25% 63% +16 -2 1.32 40% 1.0 .40 14% .22 85% .18 0.96 41% 29% 32% -9 -2 0.79 21% 1.1 .24 14% .37 86% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 14.9 0.1 22.6 63.9 13.4
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 14.9