Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#236
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#141
Pace74.9#50
Improvement-1.3#266

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#309
First Shot-5.5#327
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#333
Freethrows-1.1#256
Improvement-2.5#343

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#137
Layups/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#43
Freethrows-3.0#335
Improvement+1.2#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 17.5% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 78.1% 85.4% 64.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 83.5% 61.3%
Conference Champion 14.2% 18.9% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.9% 3.9%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
First Round13.8% 16.6% 8.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 5
Quad 413 - 615 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 85 @Belmont L 79-87 11%     0 - 1 +1.6 -0.8 +3.5
  Sun, Nov 16 145 @Western Kentucky L 82-95 22%     0 - 2 -9.2 +4.3 -12.4
  Thu, Nov 20 18 @Tennessee L 60-89 3%     0 - 3 -9.8 -9.9 +3.5
  Tue, Nov 25 227 @UNC Asheville W 75-73 37%     1 - 3 +1.3 -2.9 +4.0
  Sun, Nov 30 225 @Chattanooga W 70-64 37%     2 - 3 +5.3 -0.4 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 290 @Alabama A&M L 53-80 50%     2 - 4 -31.2 -16.3 -16.9
  Sat, Dec 13 141 @UNLV W 63-60 21%     3 - 4 +7.4 -8.9 +16.3
  Thu, Dec 18 251 Tennessee Martin W 72-68 65%    
  Sat, Dec 20 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 3 313 @Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 57%    
  Thu, Jan 8 354 @Western Illinois W 72-65 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 333 @Eastern Illinois W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 323 Morehead St. W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 317 Southern Indiana W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 233 @SIU Edwardsville L 67-70 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 237 @Lindenwood L 74-77 39%    
  Tue, Jan 27 265 Tennessee Tech W 77-73 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 75-67 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 333 Eastern Illinois W 74-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 354 Western Illinois W 75-62 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 317 @Southern Indiana W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 323 @Morehead St. W 74-72 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 237 Lindenwood W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 233 SIU Edwardsville W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 251 @Tennessee Martin L 69-71 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.6 3.2 1.5 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.1 5.3 2.5 0.5 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.8 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.8 4.9 1.4 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.8 4.6 1.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.3 1.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.1 6.5 9.2 11.7 14.0 14.1 12.8 10.4 7.3 3.7 1.6 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 96.6% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-4 86.3% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 62.9% 4.6    2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 32.1% 3.4    1.2 1.4 0.7 0.1
13-7 8.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 8.1 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 47.4% 47.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.6% 51.5% 51.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8
16-4 3.7% 41.5% 41.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.2
15-5 7.3% 36.2% 36.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.2 4.6
14-6 10.4% 29.6% 29.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.8 7.3
13-7 12.8% 20.3% 20.3% 15.4 0.2 1.2 1.2 10.2
12-8 14.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.2 12.2
11-9 14.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 12.8
10-10 11.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.1 0.4 11.2
9-11 9.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
8-12 6.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
7-13 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.3 5.1 85.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 15.2 54.3 30.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%