IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.9	#253
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	84.6	#2
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#185

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.2	#306

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	5.6%	2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.1	13.7

.500 or above	19.1%	51.6%	18.4%
.500 or above in Conference	36.2%	62.1%	35.7%
Conference Champion	2.2%	8.7%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	11.8%	3.1%	12.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
First Round	2.2%	5.6%	2.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 5	11 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	29	@ USC	L	72-94	2%
Nov 08, 2025	121	@ Seattle	L	71-81	17%
Nov 12, 2025	98	@ Colorado St.	L	72-85	12%
Nov 14, 2025	183	@ Montana	L	78-84	29%
Nov 20, 2025	89	@ Utah	L	76-90	12%
Nov 24, 2025	254	@ Northern Arizona	L	79-82	40%
Nov 25, 2025	228	Southeast Missouri St.	L	80-81	47%
Dec 04, 2025	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	81-78	59%
Dec 06, 2025	256	UC Riverside	W	82-79	61%
Dec 16, 2025	147	Montana St.	L	77-80	41%
Dec 19, 2025	13	@ UCLA	L	64-90	1%
Dec 21, 2025	239	Idaho	W	82-80	58%
Jan 01, 2026	119	UC San Diego	L	76-80	35%
Jan 03, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	75-77	42%
Jan 08, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	83-90	29%
Jan 10, 2026	255	UC Davis	W	79-76	61%
Jan 15, 2026	141	Hawaii	L	76-79	40%
Jan 22, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	74-84	20%
Jan 24, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	84-75	77%
Jan 29, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	77-81	38%
Jan 31, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	L	79-82	42%
Feb 05, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	86-87	47%
Feb 07, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	L	76-79	41%
Feb 12, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	76-84	27%
Feb 14, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	L	77-81	38%
Feb 20, 2026	141	@ Hawaii	L	73-82	22%
Feb 26, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	78-74	62%
Feb 28, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	73-83	20%
Mar 05, 2026	92	@ UC Irvine	L	73-87	13%
Mar 07, 2026	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	80-78	57%
Projected Record						11 - 19	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1			2.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.4	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0				4.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.5	2.2	1.1	0.5	0.0						5.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	2.7	2.8	1.6	0.4								8.3	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.4	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0								10.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.1	4.0	1.5	0.1	0.0									11.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.0	4.8	3.9	1.3	0.1											12.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	2.6	4.8	4.1	1.1	0.1												13.2	8th
9th				0.1	1.1	3.4	4.9	3.1	0.8	0.1													13.5	9th
10th			0.3	1.7	3.5	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.0														11.4	10th
11th	0.2	1.0	1.8	2.0	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0															7.6	11th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.2	3.8	6.3	8.3	10.0	10.4	11.5	10.2	9.6	8.4	6.1	4.9	3.1	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.3	0.1				Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	95.9%	0.3		0.3	0.0
17-3	84.0%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
16-4	48.8%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1
15-5	24.5%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	7.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0		0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.1%		33.3%	33.3%		11.0												0.0						0.0
18-2	0.3%		39.7%	35.4%	4.3%	12.3												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		6.6%
17-3	0.5%		37.6%	37.6%		12.2												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3
16-4	1.2%		24.7%	24.7%		12.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1			0.9
15-5	2.1%		16.9%	16.9%		13.0												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.8
14-6	3.1%		11.2%	11.2%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.7
13-7	4.9%		5.2%	5.2%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1		4.6
12-8	6.1%		4.1%	4.1%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.8
11-9	8.4%		2.6%	2.6%		16.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.2
10-10	9.6%		1.2%	1.2%		17.1															0.0	0.1	0.1	9.5
9-11	10.2%		0.5%	0.5%		20.2																0.0	0.0	10.1
8-12	11.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
7-13	10.4%																							10.4
6-14	10.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
5-15	8.3%																							8.3
4-16	6.3%																							6.3
3-17	3.8%																							3.8
2-18	2.2%																							2.2
1-19	1.0%																							1.0
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	14.0												0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.2	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%