IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
Big 12
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.9	#45
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.1	#268
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.1	#72

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.9	#16

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.9%	2.0%	0.5%
Top 4 Seed	7.6%	7.7%	1.9%
Top 6 Seed	16.3%	16.6%	4.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	45.4%	46.1%	20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	44.3%	44.9%	20.2%
Average Seed	7.3	7.3	8.1

.500 or above	79.5%	80.3%	48.9%
.500 or above in Conference	49.7%	50.3%	27.8%
Conference Champion	2.1%	2.1%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	4.8%	4.6%	13.0%

First Four	5.8%	5.9%	4.0%
First Round	42.5%	43.2%	18.7%
Second Round	26.5%	27.0%	10.4%
Sweet Sixteen	10.0%	10.2%	2.9%
Elite Eight	3.9%	4.0%	1.6%
Final Four	1.6%	1.7%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
National Champion	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 7	2 - 7
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 10
Quad 2	4 - 3	9 - 12
Quad 3	3 - 1	12 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 0	19 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	262	Western Carolina	W	80-60	97%
Nov 07, 2025	283	Georgia St.	W	81-59	98%
Nov 11, 2025	65	Dayton	W	69-63	71%
Nov 16, 2025	270	Mount St. Mary's	W	77-56	97%
Nov 21, 2025	10	Louisville	L	68-74	30%
Nov 24, 2025	357	NJIT	W	79-50	99.6%
Nov 26, 2025	292	Eastern Michigan	W	80-58	98%
Dec 01, 2025	273	Tarleton St.	W	73-52	97%
Dec 05, 2025	50	@ Xavier	L	68-70	44%
Dec 13, 2025	52	Georgia	W	68-66	55%
Dec 17, 2025	289	Alabama St.	W	78-56	97%
Dec 21, 2025	42	Clemson	L	63-64	49%
Dec 29, 2025	188	Lipscomb	W	75-58	92%
Jan 03, 2026	1	Houston	L	56-66	22%
Jan 06, 2026	58	@ West Virginia	L	63-64	48%
Jan 11, 2026	74	@ Central Florida	W	73-72	54%
Jan 14, 2026	84	Colorado	W	71-63	76%
Jan 17, 2026	20	Iowa St.	L	66-68	45%
Jan 21, 2026	11	@ Arizona	L	67-76	23%
Jan 24, 2026	69	@ Arizona St.	W	69-68	52%
Jan 28, 2026	24	Baylor	L	65-66	49%
Jan 31, 2026	1	@ Houston	L	53-69	10%
Feb 05, 2026	58	West Virginia	W	66-61	67%
Feb 08, 2026	74	Central Florida	W	76-69	73%
Feb 11, 2026	57	@ Kansas St.	L	66-67	48%
Feb 15, 2026	89	Utah	W	73-64	78%
Feb 21, 2026	14	@ Kansas	L	63-72	24%
Feb 24, 2026	12	@ Texas Tech	L	63-72	23%
Feb 28, 2026	73	Oklahoma St.	W	75-68	72%
Mar 03, 2026	9	BYU	L	69-73	38%
Mar 07, 2026	56	@ TCU	L	65-66	48%
Projected Record						19 - 12	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1		2.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.1	1.3	0.6	0.1				3.4	2nd
3rd												0.3	1.4	2.2	0.8	0.1					4.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.7	3.0	1.3	0.1						6.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.7	3.6	2.0	0.2							7.7	5th
6th									0.0	1.0	4.0	2.7	0.4	0.0							8.3	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	3.7	3.9	0.7	0.0								8.9	7th
8th								0.2	2.7	4.5	1.3	0.0									8.8	8th
9th							0.1	1.8	4.5	2.3	0.1										8.8	9th
10th						0.0	0.8	4.1	3.2	0.4											8.6	10th
11th					0.0	0.3	2.9	3.9	1.0	0.0											8.1	11th
12th					0.2	1.8	3.4	1.5	0.0												6.9	12th
13th				0.1	0.9	3.0	1.8	0.2													6.0	13th
14th			0.0	0.6	2.3	1.8	0.4														5.2	14th
15th		0.1	0.5	1.5	1.4	0.4	0.0														3.8	15th
16th	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.0															2.3	16th

Total	0.2	0.5	1.4	2.8	5.0	7.4	9.3	11.7	12.1	12.2	11.4	9.1	7.1	4.9	2.6	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	72.3%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0
15-3	55.8%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1
14-4	17.6%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	1.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1		1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		100.0%	62.5%	37.5%	1.6		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
17-1	0.2%		100.0%	43.6%	56.4%	1.5		0.1	0.1	0.0																100.0%
16-2	0.5%		100.0%	16.0%	84.0%	2.1		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0															100.0%
15-3	1.6%		100.0%	18.4%	81.6%	2.8		0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	2.6%		100.0%	13.9%	86.1%	3.9		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0											100.0%
13-5	4.9%		99.0%	7.0%	91.9%	5.0		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.0	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.0		98.9%
12-6	7.1%		96.4%	4.9%	91.5%	6.3		0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.4	1.4	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0						0.3		96.2%
11-7	9.1%		90.6%	2.6%	88.0%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.7	1.6	1.4	0.9	0.2						0.9		90.4%
10-8	11.4%		77.1%	1.1%	76.0%	8.5				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.0	2.2	1.9	0.6	0.0					2.6		76.9%
9-9	12.2%		55.9%	0.7%	55.2%	9.2						0.0	0.2	0.5	1.2	1.6	2.4	0.9	0.0					5.4		55.6%
8-10	12.1%		28.2%	0.3%	27.9%	9.9							0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.4	1.0	0.0					8.7		28.0%
7-11	11.7%		10.4%	0.1%	10.3%	10.3								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0					10.4		10.3%
6-12	9.3%		2.1%		2.1%	10.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					9.1		2.1%
5-13	7.4%		0.4%		0.4%	11.0												0.0						7.3		0.4%
4-14	5.0%																							5.0
3-15	2.8%																							2.8
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		45.4%	2.1%	43.4%	7.3		0.7	1.3	2.4	3.2	3.9	4.8	5.4	6.4	6.5	7.3	3.4	0.2					54.6		44.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	50.0	50.0