Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#231
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#214
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#290
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 5.5% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 11.5 13.0
.500 or above 14.5% 38.9% 14.4%
.500 or above in Conference 19.1% 35.9% 19.1%
Conference Champion 1.2% 0.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 29.2% 8.3% 29.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 5.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 16
Quad 45 - 39 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 2   @ Purdue L 54-84 0.3%   
  Nov 12, 2025 151   Middle Tennessee L 68-69 45%    
  Nov 18, 2025 190   Texas Arlington W 70-69 54%    
  Nov 21, 2025 117   Oregon St. L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 03, 2025 247   Ball St. W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 06, 2025 161   @ Western Kentucky L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 13, 2025 63   @ Notre Dame L 58-74 9%    
  Dec 16, 2025 111   Belmont L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 21, 2025 113   Drake L 57-61 35%    
  Dec 29, 2025 107   @ Bradley L 61-72 17%    
  Jan 01, 2026 105   @ Illinois St. L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 04, 2026 112   Northern Iowa L 63-68 35%    
  Jan 07, 2026 129   Murray St. L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 10, 2026 173   @ Indiana St. L 72-78 32%    
  Jan 13, 2026 107   Bradley L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 20, 2026 153   @ Illinois-Chicago L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 25, 2026 138   Southern Illinois L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 28, 2026 113   @ Drake L 54-64 20%    
  Jan 31, 2026 112   @ Northern Iowa L 60-71 19%    
  Feb 03, 2026 173   Indiana St. W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 06, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 09, 2026 105   Illinois St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 12, 2026 138   @ Southern Illinois L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 18, 2026 153   Illinois-Chicago L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 21, 2026 129   @ Murray St. L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 25, 2026 111   @ Belmont L 67-78 19%    
  Feb 28, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 72-67 64%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.5 3.9 1.1 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.4 4.0 1.4 0.1 15.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.5 5.8 3.3 1.0 0.1 19.6 10th
11th 1.0 3.2 5.0 5.4 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 21.1 11th
Total 1.0 3.3 5.7 8.5 10.7 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.0 7.7 6.2 4.7 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 76.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 46.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 36.4% 36.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 36.8% 36.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 28.6% 28.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.7% 18.2% 18.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.4% 12.3% 12.3% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.3% 11.5% 11.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.3% 7.4% 7.4% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
11-9 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5
10-10 6.2% 2.5% 2.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
9-11 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-12 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 19.8 0.0 0.0 10.9
6-14 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-15 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.7
4-16 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-17 8.5% 8.5
2-18 5.7% 5.7
1-19 3.3% 3.3
0-20 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%