Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#101
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.1#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#142
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 10.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.2
.500 or above 80.9% 84.8% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 66.2% 46.9%
Conference Champion 9.7% 10.6% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.3% 7.0%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round8.9% 9.9% 3.8%
Second Round2.8% 3.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 37 - 410 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 205   Wofford W 70-59 84%    
  Nov 07, 2025 164   Winthrop W 77-68 79%    
  Nov 15, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 77-55 98%    
  Nov 18, 2025 245   Jacksonville W 71-58 87%    
  Nov 24, 2025 152   Ohio W 73-68 67%    
  Nov 29, 2025 132   James Madison W 68-62 71%    
  Dec 02, 2025 165   Cornell W 77-68 78%    
  Dec 06, 2025 76   @ Virginia Tech L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 13, 2025 195   Old Dominion W 71-61 81%    
  Dec 21, 2025 316   Loyola Maryland W 74-57 92%    
  Dec 28, 2025 278   Penn W 76-61 89%    
  Dec 31, 2025 187   @ La Salle W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 03, 2026 143   Rhode Island W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 07, 2026 163   @ Fordham W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 60   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-64 45%    
  Jan 13, 2026 94   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-67 39%    
  Jan 19, 2026 85   George Washington W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 24, 2026 143   @ Rhode Island W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 28, 2026 145   Davidson W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 31, 2026 124   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-63 50%    
  Feb 04, 2026 116   Duquesne W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 07, 2026 110   Saint Joseph's W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 10, 2026 131   @ Richmond W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 13, 2026 85   @ George Washington L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 18, 2026 65   Dayton L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 25, 2026 110   @ Saint Joseph's L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 124   St. Bonaventure W 65-59 68%    
  Mar 03, 2026 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-67 28%    
  Mar 07, 2026 70   Saint Louis L 67-68 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.8 0.4 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.5 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.8 9.9 11.7 11.4 10.6 9.0 7.9 5.8 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 93.9% 2.0    1.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 70.3% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 41.3% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 96.5% 46.6% 49.9% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.4%
17-1 0.9% 81.3% 43.9% 37.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 66.7%
16-2 2.1% 57.8% 33.0% 24.8% 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 37.0%
15-3 3.4% 41.1% 28.6% 12.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 2.0 17.5%
14-4 5.8% 26.3% 20.7% 5.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 7.1%
13-5 7.9% 17.3% 15.0% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.6 2.7%
12-6 9.0% 11.1% 10.6% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.0 0.5%
11-7 10.6% 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.8 0.1%
10-8 11.4% 4.3% 4.3% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.9
9-9 11.7% 2.2% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.4
8-10 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-11 8.8% 1.1% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7
6-12 6.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.4% 7.4% 2.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.6 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 25.0 75.0