Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#78
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.7% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 15.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 6.9% 1.5%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.5
.500 or above 86.4% 88.9% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 76.4% 58.2%
Conference Champion 10.3% 11.1% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 2.6%
First Four2.4% 2.6% 0.8%
First Round12.9% 13.9% 5.1%
Second Round5.3% 5.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 193   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-72 88%    
  Nov 07, 2025 184   Youngstown St. W 82-70 86%    
  Nov 10, 2025 314   Northern Illinois W 86-67 96%    
  Nov 15, 2025 70   @ Saint Louis L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 21, 2025 257   Northwestern St. W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 26, 2025 89   Utah W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 02, 2025 348   Stetson W 87-65 97%    
  Dec 06, 2025 73   Oklahoma St. L 80-81 48%    
  Dec 13, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 79-63 92%    
  Dec 20, 2025 157   @ Wyoming W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 22, 2025 359   IU Indianapolis W 86-61 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 98   Colorado St. W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 07, 2026 62   @ Boise St. L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 10, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 79-68 81%    
  Jan 13, 2026 81   @ New Mexico L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 17, 2026 54   Utah St. W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 21, 2026 35   San Diego St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 24, 2026 186   @ Fresno St. W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 27, 2026 104   @ Nevada L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 30, 2026 62   Boise St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 03, 2026 277   Air Force W 78-61 92%    
  Feb 07, 2026 86   @ UNLV L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 11, 2026 81   New Mexico W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 14, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 76-71 64%    
  Feb 17, 2026 35   @ San Diego St. L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 21, 2026 157   Wyoming W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 25, 2026 86   UNLV W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 28, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 74-80 31%    
  Mar 03, 2026 277   @ Air Force W 75-64 81%    
  Mar 07, 2026 186   Fresno St. W 85-73 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 4.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.4 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.1 4.6 6.7 8.0 9.9 11.2 11.7 10.7 9.9 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 93.3% 2.0    1.7 0.3
17-3 73.9% 2.9    2.0 0.8 0.1
16-4 46.7% 2.7    1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 17.2% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 95.0% 36.9% 58.2% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1%
18-2 2.1% 83.6% 37.5% 46.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 73.8%
17-3 3.9% 66.1% 29.5% 36.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.3 51.8%
16-4 5.8% 44.4% 21.1% 23.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.0 3.2 29.6%
15-5 7.9% 26.6% 16.0% 10.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.1 5.8 12.6%
14-6 9.9% 15.4% 11.4% 4.0% 10.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 4.5%
13-7 10.7% 9.0% 8.1% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 0.9%
12-8 11.7% 6.0% 5.8% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.2%
11-9 11.2% 3.5% 3.5% 0.1% 11.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.1%
10-10 9.9% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.1%
9-11 8.0% 1.6% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9
8-12 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-13 4.6% 4.6
6-14 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 8.3% 5.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.3 4.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 86.0 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 14.3 42.9 42.9