IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.1	#173
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.9	#9
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.5%	5.0%	2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.7	12.4	13.1

.500 or above	38.2%	52.0%	27.9%
.500 or above in Conference	37.0%	45.6%	30.5%
Conference Champion	3.7%	5.5%	2.4%
Last Place in Conference	14.4%	10.3%	17.5%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	3.4%	4.9%	2.4%
Second Round	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 8	6 - 14
Quad 4	7 - 3	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	192	@ Charlotte	L	74-76	43%
Nov 10, 2025	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	75-74	51%
Nov 14, 2025	3	@ Duke	L	64-90	1%
Nov 19, 2025	144	Louisiana Tech	W	74-73	54%
Nov 22, 2025	247	Ball St.	W	81-75	72%
Nov 26, 2025	144	@ Louisiana Tech	L	71-76	33%
Nov 28, 2025	323	Alcorn St.	W	78-69	77%
Dec 07, 2025	311	Southern Indiana	W	83-73	81%
Dec 14, 2025	216	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	79-80	46%
Dec 18, 2025	107	Bradley	L	75-77	42%
Dec 21, 2025	105	@ Illinois St.	L	74-83	23%
Dec 29, 2025	111	Belmont	L	83-85	43%
Jan 01, 2026	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	71-79	25%
Jan 04, 2026	113	@ Drake	L	63-71	26%
Jan 10, 2026	231	Evansville	W	78-72	68%
Jan 14, 2026	105	Illinois St.	L	77-80	42%
Jan 17, 2026	129	@ Murray St.	L	72-78	30%
Jan 21, 2026	107	@ Bradley	L	72-80	24%
Jan 24, 2026	113	Drake	L	66-68	45%
Jan 27, 2026	153	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	78-82	37%
Jan 31, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	83-76	72%
Feb 03, 2026	231	@ Evansville	L	75-76	49%
Feb 09, 2026	138	Southern Illinois	W	79-78	51%
Feb 12, 2026	129	Murray St.	L	74-75	50%
Feb 15, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	W	80-79	54%
Feb 18, 2026	112	Northern Iowa	L	74-76	45%
Feb 21, 2026	111	@ Belmont	L	80-88	26%
Feb 25, 2026	138	@ Southern Illinois	L	75-81	31%
Mar 01, 2026	153	Illinois-Chicago	W	81-79	56%
Projected Record						13 - 16	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.2	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.1	0.5	0.0					5.1	2nd
3rd												0.5	2.2	2.3	1.1	0.2	0.0						6.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.1	0.0							7.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	3.3	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0								8.7	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.5	3.7	1.2	0.1										9.7	6th
7th							0.1	1.3	4.1	4.3	1.5	0.1											11.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	1.8	4.7	4.2	1.5	0.1												12.7	8th
9th				0.1	0.8	2.4	4.6	3.5	1.3	0.1	0.0												12.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.6	3.2	4.1	2.6	0.8	0.0														12.6	10th
11th	0.3	1.2	1.9	2.7	2.1	1.1	0.3	0.0															9.7	11th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.2	4.3	6.2	7.9	9.5	10.3	10.6	10.4	9.3	7.8	6.4	5.1	3.6	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	100.0%	0.4		0.3	0.0
17-3	94.3%	0.7		0.6	0.1
16-4	65.9%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
15-5	42.3%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1
14-6	16.6%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.2%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.7%	3.7		2.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																							0.0
19-1	0.1%		78.0%	66.1%	11.8%	9.4							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		34.9%
18-2	0.4%		32.0%	25.9%	6.1%	10.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.2		8.2%
17-3	0.7%		27.6%	27.6%		11.2									0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1					0.5
16-4	1.4%		18.5%	18.5%		11.6											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				1.1
15-5	2.2%		18.2%	17.9%	0.3%	12.1											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.8		0.4%
14-6	3.6%		14.5%	14.5%		12.2												0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			3.1
13-7	5.1%		10.3%	10.3%		12.6												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		4.6
12-8	6.4%		7.0%	7.0%		13.1													0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		6.0
11-9	7.8%		4.0%	4.0%		13.3													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		7.4
10-10	9.3%		3.3%	3.3%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.0
9-11	10.4%		1.4%	1.4%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.3
8-12	10.6%		0.9%	0.9%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.5
7-13	10.3%		0.3%	0.3%		18.8																0.0	0.0	10.3
6-14	9.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.5
5-15	7.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
4-16	6.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
3-17	4.3%																							4.3
2-18	2.2%																							2.2
1-19	1.2%																							1.2
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		3.5%	3.5%	0.0%	12.7							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	96.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%