Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#233
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.1% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 34.9% 49.2% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 59.8% 43.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.8% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 3.8% 7.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.4% 5.1% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 410 - 514 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 247   @ Ball St. L 69-71 42%    
  Nov 07, 2025 250   SE Louisiana W 71-67 65%    
  Nov 11, 2025 115   Tulane L 68-72 35%    
  Nov 14, 2025 93   @ McNeese St. L 60-73 12%    
  Nov 18, 2025 99   @ Stanford L 62-74 14%    
  Nov 21, 2025 106   @ Santa Clara L 66-77 16%    
  Nov 24, 2025 255   @ UC Davis L 66-68 44%    
  Nov 28, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 03, 2025 211   @ Lamar L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 06, 2025 120   UNC Wilmington L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 13, 2025 144   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-69 26%    
  Dec 18, 2025 276   @ Southern Miss L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 20, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 28, 2025 260   Norfolk St. W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 31, 2025 167   South Alabama L 63-64 50%    
  Jan 03, 2026 276   Southern Miss W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 08, 2026 347   Louisiana Monroe W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 10, 2026 130   Troy L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 14, 2026 197   @ Texas St. L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 17, 2026 167   @ South Alabama L 61-67 30%    
  Jan 22, 2026 204   @ Appalachian St. L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 24, 2026 195   @ Old Dominion L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 29, 2026 283   Georgia St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 31, 2026 243   Georgia Southern W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 04, 2026 132   @ James Madison L 64-73 23%    
  Feb 12, 2026 274   Coastal Carolina W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 19, 2026 137   Arkansas St. L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 21, 2026 197   Texas St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 24, 2026 130   @ Troy L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 27, 2026 137   @ Arkansas St. L 67-76 25%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 4.0 1.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.7 1.9 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.1 1.0 0.1 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.5 1.6 0.1 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 1.6 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 5.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.0 7.4 9.3 11.3 12.0 11.9 10.8 9.5 7.5 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 92.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.5% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 41.5% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 53.0% 53.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 43.1% 43.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.6% 25.1% 25.1% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.1% 23.9% 23.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-5 4.8% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.2
12-6 7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.9
11-7 9.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.1
10-8 10.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
9-9 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
8-10 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 19.4 0.0 0.0 11.9
7-11 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 9.3% 9.3
5-13 7.4% 7.4
4-14 5.0% 5.0
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%