Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 34.6% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 73.1% 89.4% 69.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 93.0% 83.6%
Conference Champion 34.3% 46.7% 31.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.0%
First Four1.2% 0.3% 1.4%
First Round25.9% 34.8% 23.6%
Second Round2.3% 4.1% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 84   @ Colorado L 64-73 20%    
  Nov 09, 2025 322   Denver W 75-62 89%    
  Nov 12, 2025 99   @ Stanford L 64-71 25%    
  Nov 15, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 62-74 15%    
  Nov 21, 2025 264   @ Long Beach St. W 67-64 61%    
  Nov 29, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 65-77 14%    
  Dec 03, 2025 149   St. Thomas W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 06, 2025 318   @ Oral Roberts W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 13, 2025 117   @ Oregon St. L 64-69 32%    
  Dec 16, 2025 253   @ Cal Poly W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 01, 2026 194   Northern Colorado W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 03, 2026 254   Northern Arizona W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 08, 2026 259   @ Eastern Washington W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 10, 2026 239   @ Idaho W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 17, 2026 183   Montana W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 19, 2026 194   @ Northern Colorado L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 22, 2026 287   Idaho St. W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 24, 2026 281   Weber St. W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 29, 2026 279   @ Sacramento St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 31, 2026 217   @ Portland St. W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 05, 2026 239   Idaho W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 07, 2026 259   Eastern Washington W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 14, 2026 183   @ Montana L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 19, 2026 281   @ Weber St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 21, 2026 287   @ Idaho St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 26, 2026 217   Portland St. W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 28, 2026 279   Sacramento St. W 71-61 80%    
  Mar 02, 2026 254   @ Northern Arizona W 71-68 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 4.0 7.3 8.7 7.2 4.2 1.5 34.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.4 6.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.4 1.6 0.2 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.1 0.9 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.2 8.9 10.9 12.1 11.8 11.5 10.1 7.3 4.2 1.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.2    4.2 0.0
16-2 98.0% 7.2    6.6 0.6
15-3 86.0% 8.7    6.9 1.7 0.1
14-4 63.1% 7.3    4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 33.9% 4.0    1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1
12-6 11.2% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 25.1 7.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 75.0% 75.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-1 4.2% 62.3% 62.1% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.4%
16-2 7.3% 51.8% 51.8% 12.5 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.5
15-3 10.1% 43.1% 43.1% 13.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7
14-4 11.5% 36.1% 36.1% 13.5 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 7.4
13-5 11.8% 25.9% 25.9% 14.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 8.8
12-6 12.1% 21.0% 21.0% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 9.6
11-7 10.9% 17.5% 17.5% 16.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 9.0
10-8 8.9% 11.7% 11.7% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 7.9
9-9 7.2% 8.9% 8.9% 17.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 6.6
8-10 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 17.4 0.1 0.2 5.1
7-11 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.8 0.1 3.8
6-12 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 6.7 6.0 4.2 2.4 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.5 50.0 50.0