Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#28
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 8.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 23.2% 9.4%
Top 6 Seed 39.4% 39.5% 18.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.9% 72.9% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.0% 70.0% 36.5%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.0
.500 or above 93.1% 93.1% 54.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 81.9% 50.0%
Conference Champion 10.9% 10.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 4.5%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 4.5%
First Round70.4% 70.5% 31.9%
Second Round50.5% 50.6% 13.9%
Sweet Sixteen24.2% 24.2% 4.8%
Elite Eight10.6% 10.6% 4.8%
Final Four4.9% 4.9% 4.8%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 36 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 354   Central Arkansas W 91-59 99.8%   
  Nov 07, 2025 14   Kansas W 77-76 52%    
  Nov 11, 2025 148   Radford W 81-63 95%    
  Nov 14, 2025 329   NC Central W 90-62 99%    
  Nov 18, 2025 230   Navy W 86-64 97%    
  Nov 25, 2025 124   St. Bonaventure W 78-65 87%    
  Nov 27, 2025 21   Michigan St. L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 02, 2025 7   @ Kentucky L 78-85 27%    
  Dec 07, 2025 68   Georgetown W 82-72 80%    
  Dec 13, 2025 332   South Carolina Upstate W 97-68 99%    
  Dec 16, 2025 156   East Tennessee St. W 82-64 94%    
  Dec 20, 2025 27   Ohio St. W 78-77 52%    
  Dec 22, 2025 158   East Carolina W 83-65 94%    
  Dec 30, 2025 75   Florida St. W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 03, 2026 46   @ SMU W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 10, 2026 67   Wake Forest W 80-70 78%    
  Jan 14, 2026 99   @ Stanford W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 17, 2026 91   @ California W 80-73 70%    
  Jan 21, 2026 63   Notre Dame W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 24, 2026 44   @ Virginia W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 31, 2026 79   @ Georgia Tech W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 02, 2026 64   Syracuse W 83-74 77%    
  Feb 07, 2026 3   Duke L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 10, 2026 55   @ Miami (FL) W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 14, 2026 80   Pittsburgh W 81-70 82%    
  Feb 17, 2026 31   @ North Carolina St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 21, 2026 64   @ Syracuse W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 23, 2026 10   Louisville W 80-79 50%    
  Feb 28, 2026 76   Virginia Tech W 79-68 81%    
  Mar 03, 2026 42   Clemson W 75-69 68%    
  Mar 07, 2026 3   @ Duke L 70-80 21%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.7 2.0 0.5 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 3.2 0.6 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.3 3.1 0.5 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.7 1.6 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.9 2.5 0.4 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 16th
17th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.7 6.6 9.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 11.5 10.5 7.6 4.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 2.0    1.8 0.3
16-2 82.6% 3.7    2.4 1.2 0.1
15-3 40.7% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-4 13.7% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 6.1 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 2.3 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.6% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 99.7% 17.3% 82.4% 4.4 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 11.5% 98.2% 13.5% 84.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
12-6 13.1% 94.5% 6.8% 87.7% 6.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 94.1%
11-7 12.1% 84.7% 4.6% 80.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.5 1.8 84.0%
10-8 11.1% 70.7% 2.3% 68.4% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.3 70.0%
9-9 9.1% 48.6% 1.4% 47.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.0 4.7 47.9%
8-10 6.6% 21.9% 1.1% 20.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 5.2 21.0%
7-11 4.7% 5.7% 0.4% 5.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 5.3%
6-12 3.4% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.5%
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.9% 9.7% 63.2% 6.1 3.5 5.2 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.0 8.0 7.4 7.0 3.0 0.1 27.1 70.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0