IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.1	#31
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#292
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.7	#30

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.3	#32

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
#1 Seed	2.4%	2.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	5.9%	6.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	17.5%	17.6%	1.1%
Top 6 Seed	31.2%	31.3%	10.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	65.8%	66.1%	29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	63.2%	63.5%	27.5%
Average Seed	6.5	6.5	7.6

.500 or above	88.7%	88.9%	62.8%
.500 or above in Conference	78.2%	78.4%	51.0%
Conference Champion	9.8%	9.9%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	1.2%	3.2%

First Four	6.0%	6.0%	2.2%
First Round	63.0%	63.2%	29.8%
Second Round	42.7%	42.9%	15.9%
Sweet Sixteen	18.8%	18.9%	4.2%
Elite Eight	7.9%	8.0%	3.2%
Final Four	3.3%	3.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	1.3%	1.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 4	2 - 4
Quad 1b	3 - 3	5 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 3	11 - 10
Quad 3	6 - 1	16 - 10
Quad 4	4 - 0	20 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	329	NC Central	W	83-56	99%
Nov 07, 2025	103	UAB	W	79-67	87%
Nov 12, 2025	232	UNC Greensboro	W	75-54	97%
Nov 17, 2025	60	Virginia Commonwealth	W	71-63	75%
Nov 24, 2025	102	Seton Hall	W	69-60	79%
Dec 03, 2025	22	@ Auburn	L	68-73	34%
Dec 06, 2025	198	UNC Asheville	W	81-62	95%
Dec 10, 2025	100	Liberty	W	73-61	85%
Dec 13, 2025	14	Kansas	L	69-70	48%
Dec 17, 2025	290	Texas Southern	W	82-58	98%
Dec 20, 2025	30	Mississippi	L	69-70	50%
Dec 31, 2025	67	Wake Forest	W	73-65	76%
Jan 03, 2026	44	Virginia	W	65-60	66%
Jan 06, 2026	96	@ Boston College	W	72-66	68%
Jan 10, 2026	75	@ Florida St.	W	73-69	62%
Jan 17, 2026	79	Georgia Tech	W	75-65	81%
Jan 20, 2026	42	@ Clemson	L	65-66	45%
Jan 24, 2026	80	@ Pittsburgh	W	71-67	64%
Jan 27, 2026	64	Syracuse	W	76-68	74%
Jan 31, 2026	67	@ Wake Forest	W	70-68	58%
Feb 03, 2026	46	@ SMU	L	71-72	47%
Feb 07, 2026	76	Virginia Tech	W	73-63	79%
Feb 09, 2026	10	@ Louisville	L	69-76	28%
Feb 14, 2026	55	Miami (FL)	W	75-68	72%
Feb 17, 2026	23	North Carolina	W	75-73	56%
Feb 24, 2026	44	@ Virginia	L	62-63	46%
Feb 28, 2026	63	@ Notre Dame	W	68-66	56%
Mar 02, 2026	3	Duke	L	66-71	33%
Mar 07, 2026	99	Stanford	W	74-62	83%
Projected Record						19 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.2	2.8	3.0	1.9	0.6		9.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.5	4.4	3.2	1.0	0.0			11.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	2.2	5.2	3.0	0.5	0.0				11.3	3rd
4th											0.1	1.7	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.0					9.6	4th
5th										0.0	1.0	4.0	3.2	0.6	0.0						8.9	5th
6th										0.3	3.1	4.0	0.9	0.0							8.4	6th
7th									0.0	1.3	3.9	1.8	0.1								7.1	7th
8th									0.3	3.1	2.3	0.2									6.0	8th
9th								0.1	1.5	3.1	0.6	0.0									5.3	9th
10th							0.0	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.1										4.7	10th
11th							0.1	1.6	2.1	0.3											4.1	11th
12th						0.0	0.6	2.2	0.6	0.0											3.5	12th
13th					0.0	0.2	1.2	1.2	0.1												2.8	13th
14th					0.1	0.7	1.2	0.3													2.3	14th
15th				0.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.0													1.6	15th
16th			0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1														1.4	16th
17th			0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0														1.0	17th
18th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0															0.6	18th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.4	2.4	3.8	6.0	7.2	9.7	11.3	12.1	11.3	11.5	9.1	6.5	4.0	2.0	0.6			Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	97.5%	1.9		1.6	0.4	0.0
16-2	74.7%	3.0		1.8	1.1	0.1
15-3	42.5%	2.8		1.1	1.2	0.4	0.1
14-4	13.6%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	2.2%	0.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.8%	9.8		5.3	3.2	0.9	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	40.3%	59.7%	1.5		0.4	0.2	0.0		0.0														100.0%
17-1	2.0%		100.0%	33.9%	66.1%	1.9		0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
16-2	4.0%		99.8%	29.3%	70.6%	2.6		0.8	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0									0.0		99.8%
15-3	6.5%		99.8%	17.5%	82.3%	3.8		0.3	0.9	1.8	1.8	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0								0.0		99.7%
14-4	9.1%		99.8%	15.3%	84.5%	5.0		0.1	0.4	1.3	2.1	1.8	1.4	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.7%
13-5	11.5%		96.9%	8.8%	88.1%	6.2			0.1	0.6	1.2	2.0	2.4	2.1	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.1						0.4		96.6%
12-6	11.3%		92.3%	6.0%	86.3%	7.4			0.0	0.2	0.4	1.2	1.6	2.0	2.1	1.7	1.1	0.2						0.9		91.8%
11-7	12.1%		80.6%	3.3%	77.3%	8.4				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.3	2.3	2.3	1.9	0.6						2.3		79.9%
10-8	11.3%		61.9%	2.0%	59.9%	9.2					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.6	2.3	1.1	0.0					4.3		61.1%
9-9	9.7%		39.6%	0.8%	38.8%	9.7						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.0	0.0					5.9		39.2%
8-10	7.2%		16.4%	0.3%	16.1%	10.3									0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.0					6.0		16.1%
7-11	6.0%		3.9%	0.1%	3.7%	10.8										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0					5.8		3.7%
6-12	3.8%		0.6%		0.6%	10.7											0.0	0.0						3.8		0.6%
5-13	2.4%																							2.4
4-14	1.4%																							1.4
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		65.8%	7.0%	58.8%	6.5		2.4	3.6	5.3	6.2	6.7	7.0	7.6	8.0	7.7	7.5	3.7	0.1					34.2		63.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.3	73.0	27.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.4	57.6	42.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0